1,142 research outputs found
Automated Identification of Unhealthy Drinking Using Routinely Collected Data: A Machine Learning Approach
Background: Unhealthy drinking is prevalent in the United States and can lead to serious health and social consequences, yet it is under-diagnosed and under-treated. Identifying unhealthy drinkers can be time-consuming for primary care providers. An automated tool for identification would allow attention to be focused on patients most likely to need care and therefore increase efficiency and effectiveness.
Objectives: To build a clinical prediction tool for unhealthy drinking based solely on routinely collected demographic and laboratory data.
Methods: We obtained demographic and laboratory data on 89,325 adults seen at the University of Vermont Medical Center from 2011-2017. Logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, and random forests were each used to build clinical prediction models. The model with the largest area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) was selected.
Results: SVM with polynomials of degree 3 produced the largest AUC. The most influential predictors were alkaline phosphatase, gender, glucose, and serum bicarbonate. The optimum operating point had sensitivity 31.1%, specificity 91.2%, positive predictive value 50.4%, and negative predictive value 82.1%. Application of the tool increased the prevalence of unhealthy drinking from 18.3% to 32.4%, while reducing the target population by 22%.
Limitations: Universal screening was not used during the time data was collected. The prevalence of unhealthy drinking among those screened was 60% suggesting the AUDIT-C was administered to confirm rather than screen for unhealthy drinking.
Conclusion: An automated tool, using commonly available data, can identify a subset of patients who appear to warrant clinical attention for unhealthy drinking
Prospects for observing ultra-compact binaries with space-based gravitational wave interferometers and optical telescopes
Space-based gravitational wave interferometers are sensitive to the galactic
population of ultra-compact binaries. An important subset of the ultra-compact
binary population are those stars that can be individually resolved by both
gravitational wave interferometers and electromagnetic telescopes. The aim of
this paper is to quantify the multi-messenger potential of space-based
interferometers with arm-lengths between 1 and 5 Gm. The Fisher Information
Matrix is used to estimate the number of binaries from a model of the Milky Way
which are localized on the sky by the gravitational wave detector to within 1
and 10 square degrees and bright enough to be detected by a magnitude limited
survey. We find, depending on the choice of GW detector characteristics,
limiting magnitude, and observing strategy, that up to several hundred
gravitational wave sources could be detected in electromagnetic follow-up
observations.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures Updated to include new results. Submitted to MNRA
Long sandwich modules for photon veto detectors
Long lead-scintillator sandwich modules developed for the BNL experiment
KOPIO are described. The individual 4 m long module consists of 15 layers of 7
mm thick extruded scintillator and 15 layers of 1 mm lead absorber. Readout is
implemented via WLS fibers glued into grooves in a scintillator with 7 mm
spacing and viewed from both ends by the phototubes. Time resolution of 300 ps
for cosmic MIPs was obtained. Light output stability monitored for 2 years
shows no degradation beyond the measurement errors. A 4 m long C-bent sandwich
module was also manufactured and tested.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, 1 tabl
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Rare K Decays.
In the rush to explore the B system, one should not ignore the potential of rare K decays. The charged and neutral FCNC K {yields} {pi}{nu}{bar {mu}} decays are theoretically very clean, on a par with B {yields} {psi}K{sub S}, which measures {beta}, and much less problematic than B {yields} {pi}{pi} and B{sub s} {yields} K{sup +}K{sup -} or B{sub s} {yields} K*{sup +}K*{sup -} which have been proposed to measure {alpha} and {gamma} respectively. B(K{sup +} {yields} {pi}{sup +}{nu}{bar {nu}}), which in the Standard Model yields information on |V*{sub ts}V{sub td}|, is closely related to the ratio of B{sub d} - {bar B}{sub d} to B{sub s}-{bar B}{sub s}, mixing, which yields |V{sub td}/V{sub ts}|. It is essential to compare such clean measurements from the B and K sectors, because new physics is likely to manifest itself in apparent disagreements[12]. Measuring the branching ratios of K {yields} {pi}{nu}{bar {nu}} decays is a challenge, but the current proven reach in sensitivity for the charged mode and the prospect of measuring the neutral mode at AGS-2000 indicate that this window into flavor physics is on the verge of becoming an exploitable reality
Basic Parameter Estimation of Binary Neutron Star Systems by the Advanced LIGO/Virgo Network
Within the next five years, it is expected that the Advanced LIGO/Virgo
network will have reached a sensitivity sufficient to enable the routine
detection of gravitational waves. Beyond the initial detection, the scientific
promise of these instruments relies on the effectiveness of our physical
parameter estimation capabilities. The majority of this effort has been towards
the detection and characterization of gravitational waves from compact binary
coalescence, e.g. the coalescence of binary neutron stars. While several
previous studies have investigated the accuracy of parameter estimation with
advanced detectors, the majority have relied on approximation techniques such
as the Fisher Matrix. Here we report the statistical uncertainties that will be
achievable for optimal detection candidates (SNR = 20) using the full parameter
estimation machinery developed by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration via Markov-Chain
Monte Carlo methods. We find the recovery of the individual masses to be
fractionally within 9% (15%) at the 68% (95%) credible intervals for equal-mass
systems, and within 1.9% (3.7%) for unequal-mass systems. We also find that the
Advanced LIGO/Virgo network will constrain the locations of binary neutron star
mergers to a median uncertainty of 5.1 deg^2 (13.5 deg^2) on the sky. This
region is improved to 2.3 deg^2 (6 deg^2) with the addition of the proposed
LIGO India detector to the network. We also report the average uncertainties on
the luminosity distances and orbital inclinations of ideal detection candidates
that can be achieved by different network configurations.Comment: Second version: 15 pages, 9 figures, accepted in Ap
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Rare decays experimental summary and prospects
I review the status and future prospects of searches for forbidden and highly kaon suppressed decays. This workshop comes as we are poised at the threshold of a new generation of rare K decay experiments. There are new experiments running or about to run at KEK, BNL, FNAL, and CERN. In another year or so these will be joined by the KLOE experiment at DA{Phi}NE. The good news is that it`s a very exciting time. The bad news, at least for a reviewer, is that there aren`t too many new results. Thus I`ll be giving a little more attention than usual to what the experimenters expect to do. My discussion of rare K decays covers processes that are forbidden in the Standard Model, those that highly suppressed and to a smaller extent, those that are merely discouraged
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The BNL rare kaon decay program
The rare kaon decay program at Brookhaven National Laboratory is reviewed. Results from the last round of experiments are briefly discussed. The three experiments currently collecting data are described. Prospects for future experiments are discussed
Rare Kaon Decays
The current status of rare kaon decay experiments is reviewed. New limits in
the search for Lepton Flavor Violation are discussed, as are new measurements
of the CKM matrix.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, LaTeX, presented at the 3rd International
Conference on B Phyiscs and CP Violation, Taipei December 3-7, 199
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Phenomenological consequences of supersymmetry
This report deals with the phenomenological consequences of supersymmetric theories, and with the implications of such theories for future high energy machines. It is concerned only with high energy predictions of supersymmetry; low energy consequences (for example in the K/sub o/anti K/sub o/ system) are discussed in the context of future experiments by another group, and will be mentioned briefly only in the context of constraining existing models. However a brief section is included on the implication for proton decay, although detailed experimental questions are not discussed. The report is organized as follows. Section I consists of a brief review of supersymmetry and the salient features of existing supersymmetric models; this section can be ignored by those familiar with such models since it contains nothing new. Section 2 deals with the consequences for nucleon decay of SUSY. The remaining sections then discuss the physics possibilities of various machines; e anti e in Section 3, ep in Section 4, pp (or anti pp) colliders in Section 5 and fixed target hadron machines in Section 6
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