Creating Full Individual-level Location Timelines from Sparse Social Media Data

In many domain applications, a continuous timeline of human locations is critical; for example for understanding possible locations where a disease may spread, or the flow of traffic. While data sources such as GPS trackers or Call Data Records are temporally-rich, they are expensive, often not publicly available or garnered only in select locations, restricting their wide use. Conversely, geo-located social media data are publicly and freely available, but present challenges especially for full timeline inference due to their sparse nature. We propose a stochastic framework, Intermediate Location Computing (ILC) which uses prior knowledge about human mobility patterns to predict every missing location from an individual's social media timeline. We compare ILC with a state-of-the-art RNN baseline as well as methods that are optimized for next-location prediction only. For three major cities, ILC predicts the top 1 location for all missing locations in a timeline, at 1 and 2-hour resolution, with up to 77.2% accuracy (up to 6% better accuracy than all compared methods). Specifically, ILC also outperforms the RNN in settings of low data; both cases of very small number of users (under 50), as well as settings with more users, but with sparser timelines. In general, the RNN model needs a higher number of users to achieve the same performance as ILC. Overall, this work illustrates the tradeoff between prior knowledge of heuristics and more data, for an important societal problem of filling in entire timelines using freely available, but sparse social media data.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Clinical and demographic factors associated with change and maintenance of disease severity in a large registry of patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND: We examined models to predict disease activity transitions from moderate to low or severe and associated factors in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Data from RA patients enrolled in the Corrona registry (October 2001 to August 2014) were analyzed. Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) definitions were used for low ( \u3c /=10), moderate ( \u3e 10 and \u3c /=22), and severe ( \u3e 22) disease activity states. A Markov model for repeated measures allowing for covariate dependence was used to model transitions between three (low, moderate, severe) states and estimate population transition probabilities. Mean sojourn times were calculated to compare length of time in particular states. Logistic regression models were used to examine impacts of covariates (time between visits, chronological year, disease duration, age) on disease states. RESULTS: Data from 29,853 patients (251,375 visits) and a sub-cohort of 9812 patients (46,534 visits) with regular visits (every 3-9 months) were analyzed. The probability of moving from moderate to low or severe disease by next visit was 47% and 18%, respectively. Patients stayed in moderate disease for mean 4.25 months (95% confidence interval: 4.18-4.32). Transition probabilities showed 20% of patients with low disease activity moved to moderate or severe disease within 6 months; \u3e 35% of patients with moderate disease remained in moderate disease after 6 months. Results were similar for the regular-visit sub-cohort. Significant interactions with prior disease state were seen with chronological year and disease duration. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of patients remain in moderate disease, emphasizing the need for treat-to-target strategies for RA patients

BMQ

BMQ: Boston Medical Quarterly was published from 1950-1966 by the Boston University School of Medicine and the Massachusetts Memorial Hospitals

Imaginary relish and exquisite torture: The elaborated intrusion theory of desire

The authors argue that human desire involves conscious cognition that has strong affective connotation and is potentially involved in the determination of appetitive behavior rather than being epiphenomenal to it. Intrusive thoughts about appetitive targets are triggered automatically by external or physiological cues and by cognitive associates. When intrusions elicit significant pleasure or relief, cognitive elaboration usually ensues. Elaboration competes with concurrent cognitive tasks through retrieval of target-related information and its retention in working memory. Sensory images are especially important products of intrusion and elaboration because they simulate the sensory and emotional qualities of target acquisition. Desire images are momentarily rewarding but amplify awareness of somatic and emotional deficits. Effects of desires on behavior are moderated by competing incentives, target availability, and skills. The theory provides a coherent account of existing data and suggests new directions for research and treatment

Developmental and tissue-specific expression of NITRs

Novel immune-type receptors (NITRs) are encoded by large multi-gene families and share structural and signaling similarities to mammalian natural killer receptors (NKRs). NITRs have been identified in multiple bony fish species, including zebrafish, and may be restricted to this large taxonomic group. Thirty-nine NITR genes that can be classified into 14 families are encoded on zebrafish chromosomes 7 and 14. Herein, we demonstrate the expression of multiple NITR genes in the zebrafish ovary and during embryogenesis. All 14 families of zebrafish NITRs are expressed in hematopoietic kidney, spleen and intestine as are immunoglobulin and T cell antigen receptors. Furthermore, all 14 families of NITRs are shown to be expressed in the lymphocyte lineage, but not in the myeloid lineage, consistent with the hypothesis that NITRs function as NKRs. Sequence analyses of NITR amplicons identify known alleles and reveal additional alleles within the nitr1, nitr2, nitr3, and nitr5 families, reflecting the recent evolution of this gene family

Prognostic value of Ishak fibrosis stage: Findings from the hepatitis C antiviral long-term treatment against cirrhosis trial

Studies of the prognostic value of Ishak fibrosis stage are lacking. We used multi-year follow-up of the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment Against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial to determine whether individual Ishak fibrosis stages predicted clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Baseline liver biopsy specimens from 1050 patients with compensated chronic hepatitis C who had failed combination peginterferon and ribavirin were reviewed by a panel of expert hepatopathologists. Fibrosis was staged with the Ishak scale (ranging from 0 = no fibrosis to 6 = cirrhosis). Biopsy fragmentation and length as well as number of portal tracts were recorded. We compared rates of prespecified clinical outcomes of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma across individual Ishak fibrosis stages. Of 1050 biopsy specimens, 25% were fragmented, 63% longer than 1.5 cm, 69% larger than 10 mm 2 , and 75% had 10 or more portal tracts. Baseline laboratory markers of liver disease severity were worse and the frequency of esophageal varices higher with increasing Ishak stage ( P < 0.0001). The 6-year cumulative incidence of first clinical outcome was 5.6% for stage 2, 16.1% for stage 3, 19.3% for stage 4, 37.8% for stage 5, and 49.3% for stage 6. Among nonfragmented biopsy specimens, the predictive ability of Ishak staging was enhanced; however, no association was observed between Ishak stage and outcomes for fragmented biopsy specimens because of high rates of outcomes for patients with noncirrhotic stages. Similar results were observed with liver transplantation or liver-related death as the outcome. Conclusion : Ishak fibrosis stage predicts clinical outcomes, need for liver transplantation, and liver-related death in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Patients with fragmented biopsy specimens with low Ishak stage may be understaged histologically. (H EPATOLOGY 2010;51:585–594.)Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64929/1/23315_ftp.pd

Crowdsourcing the Perception of Machine Teaching

Teachable interfaces can empower end-users to attune machine learning systems to their idiosyncratic characteristics and environment by explicitly providing pertinent training examples. While facilitating control, their effectiveness can be hindered by the lack of expertise or misconceptions. We investigate how users may conceptualize, experience, and reflect on their engagement in machine teaching by deploying a mobile teachable testbed in Amazon Mechanical Turk. Using a performance-based payment scheme, Mechanical Turkers (N = 100) are called to train, test, and re-train a robust recognition model in real-time with a few snapshots taken in their environment. We find that participants incorporate diversity in their examples drawing from parallels to how humans recognize objects independent of size, viewpoint, location, and illumination. Many of their misconceptions relate to consistency and model capabilities for reasoning. With limited variation and edge cases in testing, the majority of them do not change strategies on a second training attempt.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables, CHI2020 conferenc

Analysis of the African coelacanth genome sheds light on tetrapod evolution

It was a zoological sensation when a living specimen of the coelacanth was first discovered in 1938, as this lineage of lobe-finned fish was thought to have gone extinct 70 million years ago. The modern coelacanth looks remarkably similar to many of its ancient relatives, and its evolutionary proximity to our own fish ancestors provides a glimpse of the fish that first walked on land. Here we report the genome sequence of the African coelacanth, Latimeria chalumnae. Through a phylogenomic analysis, we conclude that the lungfish, and not the coelacanth, is the closest living relative of tetrapods. Coelacanth protein-coding genes are significantly more slowly evolving than those of tetrapods, unlike other genomic features . Analyses of changes in genes and regulatory elements during the vertebrate adaptation to land highlight genes involved in immunity, nitrogen excretion and the development of fins, tail, ear, eye, brain, and olfaction. Functional assays of enhancers involved in the fin-to-limb transition and in the emergence of extra-embryonic tissues demonstrate the importance of the coelacanth genome as a blueprint for understanding tetrapod evolution