Temporal variability of accumulation at Neumayer station, Antarctica, from stake array measurements and a regional atmospheric model

In this study we investigate the ability of the regional atmospheric model RACMO to represent temporal variations of Antarctic accumulation using weekly stake array measurements from Neumayer Station. The model uses ECMWF reanalyses data to force the atmospheric variables at the lateral boundaries of the model domain. Accumulation is defined as precipitation minus sublimation. Generally the model represents the synoptic situations that lead to precipitation reasonably well. The amounts of accumulation are, however, usually lower in the model than in the measurements. It cannot be distinguished whether the model underestimates precipitation or whether this effect is due to the redistribution of snow by the wind, which is not taken into account in the model, but affects the accumulation at the measuring site. Significant differences between model and measurements also occur in cases of net ablation due to wind erosion or when accumulation was due to snowdrift from southwest without precipitation observed

The diurnal evolution of the urban heat island of Paris: a model-based case study during Summer 2006

The urban heat island (UHI) over Paris during summer 2006 was simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) updated with a simple urban parametrization at a horizontal resolution of 1 km. Two integrations were performed, one with the urban land cover of Paris and another in which Paris was replaced by cropland. The focus is on a five-day clear-sky period, for which the UHI intensity reaches its maximum. The diurnal evolution of the UHI intensity was found to be adequately simulated for this five day period. The maximum difference at night in 2 m temperature between urban and rural areas stemming from the urban heating is reproduced with a relative error of less than 10%. The UHI has an ellipsoidal shape and stretches along the prevailing wind direction. The maximum UHI intensity of 6.1 K occurs at 23:00 UTC located 6 km downstream of the city centre and this largely remains during the whole night. An idealized one-column model study demonstrates that the nocturnal differential sensible heat flux, even though much smaller than its daytime value, is mainly responsible for the maximum UHI intensity. The reason for this nighttime maximum is that additional heat is only affecting a shallow layer of 150 m. An air uplift is explained by the synoptic east wind and a ramp upwind of the city centre, which leads to a considerable nocturnal adiabatic cooling over cropland. The idealized study demonstrates that the reduced vertical adiabatic cooling over the city compared to cropland induces an additional UHI build-up of 25%. The UHI and its vertical extent is affected by the boundary-layer stability, nocturnal low-level jet as well as radiative cooling. Therefore, improvements of representing these boundary-layer features in atmospheric models are important for UHI studies

Evaluating forecasts of the evolution of the cloudy boundary layer using diurnal composites of radar and lidar observations

Observations of boundary-layer cloud have been made using radar and lidar at Chilbolton, Hampshire, UK. These have been compared with output from 7 different global and regional models. Fifty-five cloudy days have been composited to reveal the mean diurnal variation of cloud top and base heights, cloud thickness and liquid water path of the clouds. To enable like-for-like comparison between model and observations, the observations have been averaged on to the grid of each model. The composites show a distinct diurnal cycle in observed cloud; the cloud height exhibits a sinusoidal variation throughout the day with a maximum at around 1600 and a minimum at around 0700 UTC. This diurnal cycle is captured by six of the seven models analysed, although the models generally under-predict both cloud top and cloud base heights throughout the day. The two worst performing models in terms of cloud boundaries also have biases of around a factor of two in liquid water path; these were the only two models that did not include an explicit formulation for cloud-top entrainment

A new regional climate model for POLAR-CORDEX : evaluation of a 30-year hindcast with COSMO-CLM2 over Antarctica

Continent-wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO-CLM2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30-year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long-term ground-based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper-air climate is achieved by the COSMO-CLM2 model, comparable to the performance of other state-of-the-art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR-CORDEX) and the CORDEX-CORE initiative

Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes : are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local subdaily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models

An improved algorithm for polar cloud-base detection by ceilometer over the ice sheets

Optically thin ice and mixed-phase clouds play an important role in polar regions due to their effect on cloud radiative impact and precipitation. Cloud-base heights can be detected by ceilometers, low-power backscatter lidars that run continuously and therefore have the potential to provide basic cloud statistics including cloud frequency, base height and vertical structure. The standard cloud-base detection algorithms of ceilometers are designed to detect optically thick liquid-containing clouds, while the detection of thin ice clouds requires an alternative approach. This paper presents the polar threshold (PT) algorithm that was developed to be sensitive to optically thin hydrometeor layers (minimum optical depth τ ≥ 0.01). The PT algorithm detects the first hydrometeor layer in a vertical attenuated backscatter profile exceeding a predefined threshold in combination with noise reduction and averaging procedures. The optimal backscatter threshold of 3 × 10^−4 km⁻¹ sr⁻¹ for cloud-base detection near the surface was derived based on a sensitivity analysis using data from Princess Elisabeth, Antarctica and Summit, Greenland. At higher altitudes where the average noise level is higher than the backscatter threshold, the PT algorithm becomes signal-to-noise ratio driven. The algorithm defines cloudy conditions as any atmospheric profile containing a hydrometeor layer at least 90 m thick. A comparison with relative humidity measurements from radiosondes at Summit illustrates the algorithm's ability to significantly discriminate between clear-sky and cloudy conditions. Analysis of the cloud statistics derived from the PT algorithm indicates a year-round monthly mean cloud cover fraction of 72% (±10%) at Summit without a seasonal cycle. The occurrence of optically thick layers, indicating the presence of supercooled liquid water droplets, shows a seasonal cycle at Summit with a monthly mean summer peak of 40 % (±4%). The monthly mean cloud occurrence frequency in summer at Princess Elisabeth is 46% (±5%), which reduces to 12% (±2.5%) for supercooled liquid cloud layers. Our analyses furthermore illustrate the importance of optically thin hydrometeor layers located near the surface for both sites, with 87% of all detections below 500 m for Summit and 80% below 2 km for Princess Elisabeth. These results have implications for using satellite-based remotely sensed cloud observations, like CloudSat that may be insensitive for hydrometeors near the surface. The decrease of sensitivity with height, which is an inherent limitation of the ceilometer, does not have a significant impact on our results. This study highlights the potential of the PT algorithm to extract information in polar regions from various hydrometeor layers using measurements by the robust and relatively low-cost ceilometer instrument

The CORDEX.be initiative as a foundation for climate services in Belgium

The CORDEX.be project created the foundations for Belgian climate services by producing high-resolution Belgian climate information that (a) incorporates the expertise of the different Belgian climate modeling groups and that (b) is consistent with the outcomes of the international CORDEX ("COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment") project. The key practical tasks for the project were the coordination of activities among different Belgian climate groups, fostering the links to specific international initiatives and the creation of a stakeholder dialogue. Scientifically, the CORDEX.be project contributed to the EURO-CORDEX project, created a small ensemble of High-Resolution (H-Res) future projections over Belgium at convection-permitting resolutions and coupled these to seven Local Impact Models. Several impact studies have been carried out. The project also addressed some aspects of climate change uncertainties. The interactions and feedback from the stakeholder dialogue led to different practical applications at the Belgian national level

The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026–2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O3 titration by reduced NOx emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25% decrease of these peak episodes

Folate catabolites in spot urine as non-invasive biomarkers of folate status during habitual intake and folic acid supplementation.

Folate status, as reflected by red blood cell (RCF) and plasma folates (PF), is related to health and disease risk. Folate degradation products para-aminobenzoylglutamate (pABG) and para-acetamidobenzoylglutamate (apABG) in 24 hour urine have recently been shown to correlate with blood folate. Since blood sampling and collection of 24 hour urine are cumbersome, we investigated whether the determination of urinary folate catabolites in fasted spot urine is a suitable non-invasive biomarker for folate status in subjects before and during folic acid supplementation. Immediate effects of oral folic acid bolus intake on urinary folate catabolites were assessed in a short-term pre-study. In the main study we included 53 healthy men. Of these, 29 were selected for a 12 week folic acid supplementation (400 µg). Blood, 24 hour and spot urine were collected at baseline and after 6 and 12 weeks and PF, RCF, urinary apABG and pABG were determined. Intake of a 400 µg folic acid bolus resulted in immediate increase of urinary catabolites. In the main study pABG and apABG concentrations in spot urine correlated well with their excretion in 24 hour urine. In healthy men consuming habitual diet, pABG showed closer correlation with PF (rs = 0.676) and RCF (rs = 0.649) than apABG (rs = 0.264, ns and 0.543). Supplementation led to significantly increased folate in plasma and red cells as well as elevated urinary folate catabolites, while only pABG correlated significantly with PF (rs = 0.574) after 12 weeks. Quantification of folate catabolites in fasted spot urine seems suitable as a non-invasive alternative to blood or 24 hour urine analysis for evaluation of folate status in populations consuming habitual diet. In non-steady-state conditions (folic acid supplementation) correlations between folate marker (RCF, PF, urinary catabolites) decrease due to differing kinetics