Saigas on the brink: Multidisciplinary analysis of the factors influencing mass mortality events

In 2015, more than 200,000 saiga antelopes died in 3 weeks in central Kazakhstan. The proximate cause of death is confirmed as hemorrhagic septicemia caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida type B, based on multiple strands of evidence. Statistical modeling suggests that there was unusually high relative humidity and temperature in the days leading up to the mortality event; temperature and humidity anomalies were also observed in two previous similar events in the same region. The modeled influence of environmental covariates is consistent with known drivers of hemorrhagic septicemia. Given the saiga population’s vulnerability to mass mortality and the likely exacerbation of climate-related and environmental stressors in the future, management of risks to population viability such as poaching and viral livestock disease is urgently needed, as well as robust ongoing veterinary surveillance. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to research mass mortality events under rapid environmental change

A Spatial Survey of Environmental Indicators for Kazakhstan: An Examination of Current Conditions and Future Needs

The Republic of Kazakhstan, located in Central Asia, has experienced many years of environmental degradation, largely as a result of the poor management of its significant natural resources. In this survey, data relating to different environmental factors are critically analysed in order to understand the state of the environment. It was found that: warming trends are seen in sensitive areas (e.g. the steppe and near glaciers); drying trends are seen where there is already water stress (e.g. the Aral Sea); air quality has been declining recently (following improvements on the decadal timescale) in major urban centres, particularly Almaty; water quality appears to be improving in some areas (e.g. important lakes in the Aktobe and Zhambyl regions); and levels of exposure to radioactivity are below internationally recommended levels (where data have been found). More generally, there is an issue with data availability and quality, which requires attention if Kazakhstan is going to make the best use of its increasing investment in environmental actions. Current policies are reviewed and recommendations are made for future interventions

The water-energy-food nexus in Kazakhstan: challenges and opportunities

The concept of the water, energy, food nexus is extremely relevant to Kazakhstan as the country faces population growth, economic progress and environmental challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, and climate change. Furthermore, poor sectoral coordination and inadequate infrastructure have caused unsustainable resource use and threaten the long-term water, energy and food security in Kazakhstan. This study presents the key elements required to implement a nexus-based resource management approach in Kazakhstan, by identifying linkages between water resources, energy production and agriculture. A case study illustrates how this methodology can be applied to quantify linkages between the water and energy sectors

Exacerbated grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia during 2000-2014.

Grassland degradation and desertification is a complex process, including both state conversion (e.g., grasslands to deserts) and gradual within-state change (e.g., greenness dynamics). Existing studies hardly separated the two components and analyzed it as a whole based on time series vegetation index data, which cannot provide a clear and comprehensive picture for grassland degradation and desertification. Here we propose an integrated assessment strategy, by considering both state conversion and within-state change of grasslands, to investigate grassland degradation and desertification process in Central Asia. First, annual maps of grasslands and sparsely vegetated land were generated to track the state conversions between them. The results showed increasing grasslands were converted to sparsely vegetated lands from 2000 to 2014, with the desertification region concentrating in the latitude range of 43-48° N. A frequency analysis of grassland vs. sparsely vegetated land classification in the last 15 yr allowed a recognition of persistent desert zone (PDZ), persistent grassland zone (PGZ), and transitional zone (TZ). The TZ was identified in southern Kazakhstan as one hotspot that was unstable and vulnerable to desertification. Furthermore, the trend analysis of Enhanced Vegetation Index during thermal growing season (EVITGS ) was investigated in individual zones using linear regression and Mann-Kendall approaches. An overall degradation across the area was found; moreover, the second desertification hotspot was identified in northern Kazakhstan with significant decreasing in EVITGS , which was located in PGZ. Finally, attribution analyses of grassland degradation and desertification were conducted by considering precipitation, temperature, and three different drought indices. We found persistent droughts were the main factor for grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia. Considering both state conversion and gradual within-state change processes, this study provided reference information for identification of desertification hotspots to support further grassland degradation and desertification treatment, and the method could be useful to be extended to other regions

Adapting agricultural water use to climate change in a post-Soviet context: challenges and opportunities in southeast Kazakhstan

The convergence of climate change and post-Soviet socio-economic and institutional transformations has been underexplored so far, as have the consequences of such convergence on crop agriculture in Central Asia. This paper provides a place-based analysis of constraints and opportunities for adaptation to climate change, with a specific focus on water use, in two districts in southeast Kazakhstan. Data were collected by 2 multi-stakeholder participatory workshops, 21 semi-structured in-depth interviews, and secondary statistical data. The present-day agricultural system is characterised by enduring Soviet-era management structures, but without state inputs that previously sustained agricultural productivity. Low margins of profitability on many privatised farms mean that attempts to implement integrated water management have produced water users associations unable to maintain and upgrade a deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. Although actors engage in tactical adaptation measures, necessary structural adaptation of the irrigation system remains difficult without significant public or private investments. Market-based water management models have been translated ambiguously to this region, which fails to encourage efficient water use and hinders adaptation to water stress. In addition, a mutual interdependence of informal networks and formal institutions characterises both state governance and everyday life in Kazakhstan. Such interdependence simultaneously facilitates operational and tactical adaptation, but hinders structural adaptation, as informal networks exist as a parallel system that achieves substantive outcomes while perpetuating the inertia and incapacity of the state bureaucracy. This article has relevance for critical understanding of integrated water management in practice and adaptation to climate change in post-Soviet institutional settings more broadly

Snow cover and vegetation-induced decrease in global albedo from 2002 to 2016

Land surface albedo is an essential parameter in regional and global climate models, and it is markedly influenced by land cover change. Variations in the albedo can affect the surface radiation budget and further impact the global climate. In this study, the interannual variation of albedo from 2002 to 2016 was estimated on the global scale using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets. The presence and causes of the albedo changes for each specific region were also explored. From 2002 to 2016, the MODIS-based albedo decreased globally, snow cover declined by 0.970 (percent per pixel), while the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index increased by 0.175. Some obvious increases in the albedo were detected in Central Asia, northeastern China, parts of the boreal forest in Canada, and the temperate steppe in North America. In contrast, noticeable decreases in the albedo were found in the Siberian tundra, Europe, southeastern Australia, and northeastern regions of North America. In the Northern Hemisphere, the greening trend at high latitudes made more contribution to the decline in the albedo. However, the dramatic fluctuation of snow-cover at midlatitudes predominated in the change of albedo. Our analysis can help to understand the roles that vegetation and snow cover play in the variation of albedo on global and regional scales

Dry and Humid Periods Reconstructed from Tree Rings in the Former Territory of Sogdiana (Central Asia) and Their Socio-economic Consequences over the Last Millennium

One of the richest societies along the Silk Road developed in Sogdiana, located in present-day Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. This urban civilisation reached its greatest prosperity during the golden age of the Silk Road (sixth to ninth century ce). Rapid political and economic changes, accelerated by climatic variations, were observed during last millennium in this region. The newly developed tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the pastmillennium revealed a series of dry and wet stages. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), two dry periods occurred (900–1000 and 1200–1250), interrupted by a phase of wetter conditions. Distinct dry periods occurred around 1510–1650, 1750–1850, and 1920–1970, respectively. The juniper tree-ring record of moisture changes revealed that major dry and pluvial episodes were consistent with those indicated by hydroclimatic proxy data from adjacent areas. These climate fluctuations have had longand short term consequences for human history in the territory of former Sogdiana