Evaluation of stand-level hybrid PipeQual model with permanent sample plot data of Norway spruce

The evaluation of process-based models (PBM) includes ascertaining their ability to produce results consistent with forest growth in the past. In this study, we parameterized and evaluated the hybrid model PipeQual with datasets containing traditional mensuration variables collected from permanent sample plots (PSP) of even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands in Finland. To initialize the model in the middle of stand development and reproduce observed changes in Norway spruce crown structure, the built-in empirical relationships of crown characteristics were made explicitly dependent on the light environment. After these modifications, the model accuracy at the whole dataset level was high, with slope values of linear regressions between the observations and simulations ranging from 0.77 to 0.99 depending on the variable. The average bias ranged between -0.72 and 0.07 m in stand dominant height, -0.68 and 0.57 cm in stand mean diameter, -2.62 and 1.92 m(2) in stand basal area, and 20 and 29 m(3) in stand total stem volume. Stand dynamics after thinning also followed reasonable closely the observed patterns. Accurate predictions illustrate the potential of the model for predicting forest stand growth and forest management effects in changing environmental conditions.Peer reviewe

Representativeness of point-wise phenological Betula data collected in different parts of Europe

Peer reviewe

Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe

We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.Peer reviewe

Analyses on the spring phenology of boreal trees and its response to climate change (väitöskirja)

väitöskirj

Regularities and patterns in the spring phenology of some boreal trees

Phenological time series of flowering and bud burst of Populus tremula (L.) and Betula sp., and the flowering of Pinus sylvestris (L.), Alnus glutinosa (L.) and Alnus incana (L.) were constructed from data collected in Finland during the period 1896–1955. The resulting combined time series were examined with two aims in mind: first, to determine the phenological regularities between different species and, second, to detect patterns of spring advancement over a geographically large area. The results indicate that the geographical pattern of spring advancement is rather uniform from year to year, and between different species. Furthermore, the mechanisms regulating the timing of phenological events in different species seem to function in a similar way, suggesting an unanimous optimal response to climatic conditions.</ja:p