A novel metric for coronal MHD models

[1] In the interest of quantitatively assessing the capabilities of coronal MHD models, we have developed a metric that compares the structures of the white light corona observed with SOHO LASCO C2 to model predictions. The MAS model is compared to C2 observations from two Carrington rotations during solar cycle 23, CR1913 and CR1984, which were near the minimum and maximum of solar activity, respectively, for three radial heights, 2.5 R⊙, 3.0 R⊙, and 4.5 R⊙. In addition to simulated polarization brightness images, we create a synthetic image based on the field topology along the line of sight in the model. This open-closed brightness is also compared to LASCO C2 after renormalization. In general, the model\u27s magnetic structure is a closer match to observed coronal structures than the model\u27s density structure. This is expected from the simplified energy equations used in current global corona MHD models

Phonon and Elastic Instabilities in MoC and MoN

We present several results related to the instability of MoC and MoN in the B1 (sodium chloride) structure. These compounds were proposed as potential superconductors with moderately high transition temperatures. We show that the elastic instability in B1-structure MoN, demonstrated several years ago, persists at elevated pressures, thus offering little hope of stabilizing this material without chemical doping. For MoC, another material for which stoichiometric fabrication in the B1-structure has not proven possible, we find that all of the cubic elastic constants are positive, indicating elastic stability. Instead, we find X-point phonon instabilities in MoC (and in MoN as well), further illustrating the rich behavior of carbo-nitride materials. We also present additional electronic structure results for several transition metal (Zr, Nb and Mo) carbo-nitride systems and discuss systematic trends in the properties of these materials. Deviations from strict electron counting dependencies are apparent.Comment: 5 pages and 4 trailing figures. Submitted to PR

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot

Influence of Reservoir Infill on Coastal Deep Water Hypoxia

Ecological restoration of the Chesapeake through the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load (TMDL) requires the reduction of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Chesapeake watershed because of the tidal water quality impairments and damage to living resources they cause. Within the Chesapeake watershed, the Conowingo Reservoir has been filling in with sediment for almost a century and is now in a state of near‐full capacity called dynamic equilibrium. The development of the Chesapeake TMDL in 2010 was with the assumption that the Conowingo Reservoir was still effectively trapping sediment and nutrients. This is now known not to be the case. In a TMDL, pollutant loads beyond the TMDL allocation, which are brought about by growth or other conditions, must be offset. Using the analysis tools of the Chesapeake TMDL for assessing the degree of water quality standard attainment, the estimated nutrient and sediment loads from a simulated dynamic equilibrium infill condition of the Conowingo Reservoir were determined. The influence on Chesapeake water quality by a large storm and scour event of January 1996 on the Susquehanna River was estimated, and the same storm and scour events were also evaluated in the more critical living resource period of June. An analysis was also made on the estimated influence of more moderate high flow events. The infill of the Conowingo reservoir had estimated impairments of water quality, primarily on deep‐water and deep‐channel dissolved oxygen, because of increased discharge and transport of organic and particulate inorganic nutrients from the Conowingo Reservoir

Ambient solar wind's effect on ICME transit times

Most empirical and numerical models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) propagation use the initial CME velocity as their primary, if not only, observational input. These models generally predict a wide spread of 1 AU transit times for ICMEs with the same initial velocity. We use a 3D coupled MHD model of the corona and heliosphere to determine the ambient solar wind's effect on the propagation of ICMEs from 30 solar radii to 1 AU. We quantitatively characterize this deceleration by the velocity of the upstream ambient solar wind. The effects of varying solar wind parameters on the ICME transit time are quantified and can explain the observed spread in transit times for ICMEs of the same initial velocity. We develop an adjustment formula that can be used in conjunction with other models to reduce the spread in predicted transit times of Earth-directed ICMEs