Population modeling of early COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in French regions and estimation of the lockdown impact on infection rate

We propose a population approach to model the beginning of the French COVID-19 epidemic at the regional level. We rely on an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) mechanistic model, a simplified representation of the average epidemic process. Combining several French public datasets on the early dynamics of the epidemic, we estimate region-specific key parameters conditionally on this mechanistic model through Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization (SAEM) optimization using Monolix software. We thus estimate basic reproductive numbers by region before isolation (between 2.4 and 3.1), the percentage of infected people over time (between 2.0 and 5.9% as of May 11 th , 2020) and the impact of nationwide lockdown on the infection rate (decreasing the transmission rate by 72% toward a R e ranging from 0.7 to 0.9). We conclude that a lifting of the lockdown should be accompanied by further interventions to avoid an epidemic rebound

CASCADE protocol: exploring current viral and host characteristics, measuring clinical and patient-reported outcomes, and understanding the lived experiences and needs of individuals with recently acquired HIV infection through a multicentre mixed-methods observational study in Europe and Canada

Introduction: Despite the availability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART), 21 793 people were newly diagnosed with HIV in Europe in 2019. The Concerted action on seroconversion to AIDS and death in Europe study aims to understand current drivers of the HIV epidemic; factors associated with access to, and uptake of prevention methods and ART initiation; and the experiences, needs and outcomes of people with recently acquired HIV. / Methods and analysis: This longitudinal observational study is recruiting participants aged ≥16 years with documented laboratory evidence of HIV seroconversion from clinics in Canada and six European countries. We will analyse data from medical records, self-administered questionnaires, semistructured interviews and participatory photography. We will assess temporal trends in transmitted drug resistance and viral subtype and examine outcomes following early ART initiation. We will investigate patient-reported outcomes, well-being, and experiences of, knowledge of, and attitudes to HIV preventions, including PrEP. We will analyse qualitative data thematically and triangulate quantitative and qualitative findings. As patient public involvement is central to this work, we have convened a community advisory board (CAB) comprising people living with HIV. / Ethics and dissemination: All respective research ethics committees have approval for data to contribute to international collaborations. Written informed consent is required to take part. A dissemination strategy will be developed in collaboration with CAB and the scientific committee. It will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and accessible summaries of findings on the study’s website, social media and via community organisations

All-cause hospitalisation among people living with HIV according to gender, mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and geographical origin in Europe and North America: findings from the ART-CC cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND: Understanding demographic disparities in hospitalisation is crucial for the identification of vulnerable populations, interventions, and resource planning. METHODS: Data were from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) on people living with HIV in Europe and North America, followed up between January, 2007 and December, 2020. We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation according to gender and mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and combined geographical origin and ethnicity, in people living with HIV on modern combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Analyses were performed separately for European and North American cohorts. Hospitalisation rates were assessed using negative binomial multilevel regression, adjusted for age, time since cART intitiaion, and calendar year. FINDINGS: Among 23 594 people living with HIV in Europe and 9612 in North America, hospitalisation rates per 100 person-years were 16·2 (95% CI 16·0-16·4) and 13·1 (12·8-13·5). Compared with gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, rates were higher for heterosexual men and women, and much higher for men and women who acquired HIV through injection drug use (adjusted incidence rate ratios ranged from 1·2 to 2·5 in Europe and from 1·2 to 3·3 in North America). In both regions, individuals with geographical origin other than the region of study generally had lower hospitalisation rates compared with those with geographical origin of the study country. In North America, Indigenous people and Black or African American individuals had higher rates than White individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratios 1·9 and 1·2), whereas Asian and Hispanic people living with HIV had somewhat lower rates. In Europe there was a lower rate in Asian individuals compared with White individuals. INTERPRETATION: Substantial disparities exist in all-cause hospitalisation between demographic groups of people living with HIV in the current cART era in high-income settings, highlighting the need for targeted support. FUNDING: Royal Free Charity and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism

Reasons for not commencing direct-acting antiviral treatment despite unrestricted access for individuals with HIV and hepatitis C virus: a multinational, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Individuals with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) who remain untreated with direct-acting antivirals can contribute to HCV transmission and HCV-related mortality. We aimed to compare rates of uptake of direct-acting antivirals following unrestricted access to this treatment in high-income countries and examine factors associated with remaining untreated. METHODS This multinational, prospective cohort study used data from the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC). We analysed data from nine observational cohorts participating in the InCHEHC, including data from six high-income countries (Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland). We included individuals aged 18 years and older, with HIV and HCV (ie, HCV-RNA positive without evidence of spontaneous clearance) during unrestricted access to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral treatment in each country. We calculated the cumulative proportion of participants who remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals, with follow-up starting after the date of unrestricted access or cohort inclusion, whichever occurred most recently. Factors associated with the commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment were assessed using competing-risks regression with the Fine-Gray method. FINDINGS The date of unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral treatment for people with HIV ranged from Nov 1, 2014, in France to Nov 1, 2017, in Switzerland. We included 4552 individuals with HIV-HCV, mainly men who have sex with men (MSM; n=2156 [47%]) and people who inject or have injected drugs (n=1453 [32%]). 1365 (30%) of 4552 participants remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals. For individuals treated with direct-acting antivirals, median time from start of follow-up to treatment was 5 months (IQR 2-12). For individuals who were not treated with direct-acting antivirals, median follow-up was 22 months (8-30). Being linked to care in Australia, France, or the Netherlands, on antiretroviral therapy, having undetectable HIV RNA, and shorter duration since first positive HCV test were independently associated with higher commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment. Compared with MSM, male heterosexuals and females with unknown or other routes of HIV transmission (ie, neither injection drug use nor heterosexual transmission) had lower rates of commencement. INTERPRETATION Despite unrestricted access, almost a third of individuals with HIV-HCV remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals during follow-up, with variation in commencement rate of HCV treatment between countries and key populations. Increased efforts are required to reach the remaining individuals with HIV who are HCV-viraemic to achieve HIV-HCV micro-elimination. FUNDING None

Sustained virological response after treatment with direct antiviral agents in individuals with HIV and hepatitis C co-infection.

INTRODUCTION Randomized trials and observational studies have consistently reported rates of sustained virological response (SVR), equivalent to hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure, as high as 95% following treatment with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment in individuals with HIV and HCV co-infection. However, large studies assessing whether SVR rates differ according to demographic and clinical strata are lacking. Additionally, the SVR rates reported in the literature were typically computed in non-random samples of individuals with available post-DAA HCV-RNA measures. Here, we aimed to estimate the probability of SVR after DAA treatment initiation in persons with HIV and HCV co-infection overall and by demographic and clinical characteristics with and without adjustment for missing HCV-RNA testing. METHODS We included adults with HIV-HCV co-infection who received DAA treatment between 2014 and 2020 in HepCAUSAL, an international collaboration of cohorts from Europe and North America. We estimated the proportions of DAA recipients who had documented SVR (defined as an undetectable HCV-RNA at least 12 weeks after the end of DAA treatment) overall and by strata defined by age, sex, presence of cirrhosis, calendar period, mode of HIV acquisition, CD4 cell count and HCV genotype at DAA treatment. We then compared these rates with those obtained using the parametric g-formula to impute SVR status for individuals with no SVR assessment. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A total of 4527 individuals who initiated DAA treatment (88% males, median [IQR] age 56 [50, 62] years) were included. Of the total of 642 (14%) individuals had no HCV-RNA test on or after 12 weeks after the end of treatment. The overall observed and g-formula imputed SVR rates were 93% (95% CI 93, 94) and 94% (95% CI 92, 95), respectively. SVR estimates were similarly high across all strata. A substantial proportion of individuals who received DAA treatment were never assessed for SVR post-DAA and strategies for more systematic routine HCV-RNA testing should be considered. CONCLUSIONS Our estimates with and without adjustment for missing HCV-RNA testing indicate SVR rates of approximately 95%, like those reported in clinical trials

Life expectancy after 2015 of adults with HIV on long-term antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The life expectancy of people with HIV taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased substantially over the past 25 years. Most previous studies of life expectancy were based on data from the first few years after starting ART, when mortality is highest. However, many people with HIV have been successfully treated with ART for many years, and up-to-date prognosis data are needed. We aimed to estimate life expectancy in adults with HIV on ART for at least 1 year in Europe and North America from 2015 onwards. METHODS: We used data for people with HIV taking ART from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study. Included participants started ART between 1996 and 2014 and had been on ART for at least 1 year by 2015, or started ART between 2015 and 2019 and survived for at least 1 year; all participants were aged at least 16 years at ART initiation. We used Poisson models to estimate the associations between mortality and demographic and clinical characteristics, including CD4 cell count at the start of follow-up. We also estimated the remaining years of life left for people with HIV aged 40 years who were taking ART, and stratified these estimates by variables associated with mortality. These estimates were compared with estimates for years of life remaining in a corresponding multi-country general population. FINDINGS: Among 206 891 people with HIV included, 5780 deaths were recorded since 2015. We estimated that women with HIV at age 40 years had 35·8 years (95% CI 35·2-36·4) of life left if they started ART before 2015, and 39·0 years (38·5-39·5) left if they started ART after 2015. For men with HIV, the corresponding estimates were 34·5 years (33·8-35·2) and 37·0 (36·5-37·6). Women with CD4 counts of fewer than 49 cells per μL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 19·4 years (18·2-20·5) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 24·9 years (23·9-25·9) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 18·2 years (17·1-19·4) and 23·7 years (22·7-24·8). Women with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per μL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 40·2 years (39·7-40·6) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 42·0 years (41·7-42·3) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 38·0 years (37·5-38·5) and 39·2 years (38·7-39·7). INTERPRETATION: For people with HIV on ART and with high CD4 cell counts who survived to 2015 or started ART after 2015, life expectancy was only a few years lower than that in the general population, irrespective of when ART was started. However, for people with low CD4 counts at the start of follow-up, life-expectancy estimates were substantially lower, emphasising the continuing importance of early diagnosis and sustained treatment of HIV. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and UK Medical Research Council

Prevalence and effect of pre-treatment drug resistance on the virological response to antiretroviral treatment initiated in HIV-infected children - a EuroCoord-CHAIN-EPPICC joint project.

Few studies have evaluated the impact of pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR) on response to combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) in children. The objective of this joint EuroCoord-CHAIN-EPPICC/PENTA project was to assess the prevalence of PDR mutations and their association with virological outcome in the first year of cART in children. HIV-infected children <18 years initiating cART between 1998 and 2008 were included if having at least one genotypic resistance test prior to cART initiation. We used the World Health Organization 2009 resistance mutation list and Stanford algorithm to infer resistance to prescribed drugs. Time to virological failure (VF) was defined as the first of two consecutive HIV-RNA > 500 copies/mL after 6 months cART and was assessed by Cox proportional hazards models. All models were adjusted for baseline demographic, clinical, immunology and virology characteristics and calendar period of cART start and initial cART regimen. Of 476 children, 88 % were vertically infected. At cART initiation, median (interquartile range) age was 6.6 years (2.1-10.1), CD4 cell count 297 cells/mm(3) (98-639), and HIV-RNA 5.2 log10copies/mL (4.7-5.7). Of 37 children (7.8 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI), 5.5-10.6) harboring a virus with ≥1 PDR mutations, 30 children had a virus resistant to ≥1 of the prescribed drugs. Overall, the cumulative Kaplan-Meier estimate for virological failure was 19.8 % (95 %CI, 16.4-23.9). Cumulative risk for VF tended to be higher among children harboring a virus with PDR and resistant to ≥1 drug prescribed than among those receiving fully active cART: 32.1 % (17.2-54.8) versus 19.4 % (15.9-23.6) (P = 0.095). In multivariable analysis, age was associated with a higher risk of VF with a 12 % reduced risk per additional year (HR 0.88; 95 %CI, 0.82-0.95; P < 0.001). PDR was not significantly associated with a higher risk of VF in children in the first year of cART. The risk of VF decreased by 12 % per additional year at treatment initiation which may be due to fading of PDR mutations over time. Lack of appropriate formulations, in particular for the younger age group, may be an important determinant of virological failure

PLoS One

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) have dramatically increased HCV cure rates with minimal toxicity in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. This study aimed to compare the socio-behavioral characteristics of patients initiating pegylated-interferon (PEG-IFN)-based HCV treatment with those of patients initiating DAA-based treatment. METHODS: ANRS CO13 HEPAVIH is a national multicenter prospective cohort started in 2005, which enrolled 1,859 HIV-HCV co-infected patients followed up in French hospital outpatient units. Both clinical/biological and socio-behavioral data were collected during follow-up. We selected patients with socio-behavioral data available before HCV treatment initiation. RESULTS: A total of 580 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 347 initiated PEG-IFN-based treatment, and 233 DAA-based treatment. There were significant differences regarding patient mean age (45 years+/-6 for the PEG-IFN group vs. 52 years+/-8 for the DAA group, p<0.001), unstable housing (21.4% vs. 11.2%, p = 0.0016), drug use (44.7% vs. 29.6%, p = 0.0003), regular or daily use of cannabis (24.3% vs. 15.6%, p = 0.0002), a history of drug injection (68.9% vs 39.0%, p<0.0001) and significant liver fibrosis (62.4% vs 72.3%, p = 0.0293). In multivariable analysis, patients initiating DAA-based treatment were older than their PEG-IFN-based treatment counterparts (aOR = 1.17; 95%CI [1.13; 1.22]). Patients receiving DAA treatment were less likely to report unstable housing (0.46 [0.24; 0.88]), cannabis use (regular or daily use:0.50 [0.28; 0.91]; non-regular use: 0.41 [0.22; 0.77]), and a history of drug injection (0.19 [0.12; 0.31]). CONCLUSION: It is possible that a majority of patients who had socio-economic problems and/or a history of drug injection and/or a non-advanced disease stage were already treated for HCV in the PEG-IFN era. Today, patients with unstable housing conditions are prescribed DAA less frequently than other populations. As HCV treatment is prevention, improving access to DAA remains a major clinical and public health strategy, in particular for individuals with high-risk behaviors

Alternative methods to analyse the impact of HIV mutations on virological response to antiviral therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regression may be useful to summarize the HIV genotypic information. Without pre-selection each mutation presented in at least one patient is considered with a different weight. We compared these two strategies with the construction of a usual genotypic score.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from the ANRS-CO3 Aquitaine Cohort Zephir sub-study. We used a subset of 87 patients with a complete baseline genotype and plasma HIV-1 RNA available at baseline and at week 12. PCA and PLS components were determined with all mutations that had prevalences >0. For the genotypic score, mutations were selected in two steps: 1) p-value < 0.01 in univariable analysis and prevalences between 10% and 90% and 2) backwards selection procedure based on the Cochran-Armitage Test. The predictive performances were compared by means of the cross-validated area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Virological failure was observed in 46 (53%) patients at week 12. Principal components and PLS components showed a good performance for the prediction of virological response in HIV infected patients. The cross-validated AUCs for the PCA, PLS and genotypic score were 0.880, 0.868 and 0.863, respectively. The strength of the effect of each mutation could be considered through PCA and PLS components. In contrast, each selected mutation contributes with the same weight for the calculation of the genotypic score. Furthermore, PCA and PLS regression helped to describe mutation clusters (e.g. 10, 46, 90).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this dataset, PCA and PLS showed a good performance but their predictive ability was not clinically superior to that of the genotypic score.</p