Cambios transformacionales para alcanzar los objetivos de la visión para la diversidad biológica al 2050

Objetivo: con este artículo se busca recomendar la implementación, a nivel mundial, de cambios transformacionales o transformadores necesarios para alcanzar los objetivos de la visión para la diversidad biológica al 2050. Metodología: se analizaron los resultados de evaluaciones globales sobre la diversidad biológica como la “Evaluación Mundial sobre la Diversidad Biológica y los Servicios de los Ecosistemas” de IPBES” y las “Perspectivas del Medio Ambiente Mundial, GEO 6: Planeta sano, personas sanas” del PNUMA, entre otros, y artículos científicos relacionados, en el marco general de la teoría del cambio (ToC). Hallazgo: los resultados de aplicación de los documentos de planificación mundial, para detener las tasas de extinción aceleradas de especies y de ecosistemas y del desarrollo sostenible, plasmadas en las Metas de Aichi de la Estrategia para la Diversidad Biológica al 2020 y los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible al 2030, muestran logros débiles. Conclusión: se requieren cambios transformadores drásticos para alcanzar los objetivos de la visión para la diversidad biológica al 2050 que se complementen con acciones como reducción de la inequidad, la eliminación de las externalidades negativas para el capital natural, la buena gobernanza, la implementación de incentivos, reducciones tributarias, impuestos como estrategias económicas, el fomento al comercio justo y la economía circular.Object: The purpose of this article is to recommend the implementation of transformational or transforming changes in a global scale, needed to reach the objectives of biological diversity vision as of 2050. Methodology: Results derived from global tests about biological diversity, like the IPBES’ “Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services”, as well as PNUMA’s “Global Environment Outlook GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People”, among others, were examined. Besides, some scientific results related to the general frame of Theory of Change. Finding: Results from the application of the documents of global planification, to halt accelerated rates of extinction in species, ecosystems and sustainable development, appearing in the Aichi Biodiversity Targets for 2020 and the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, show weak results. Conclusion: There exist drastic transformation changes that will be needed to reach the goals traced in the vision for biological diversity in 2050 and these will need additional actions as reduction of inequity, deletion of negative externalities in benefit of natural capital, good governance, implementation of incentives, tributary reductions, taxes as economic strategies, promotion for fair commerce and circular economy

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Peruvian Colostethus

24 p. : ill., map ; 26 cm.Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-24).Colostethus trilineatus (Boulenger, 1883 ) is widespread in the lowlands of Amazonian Peru and Ecuador. It is characterized, in part, by small size, gray throat and Finger III strongly swollen in adult males, and an advertisement call of 10 notes with emphasized frequencies at 4920-6040 Hz. Material examined revealed extensive variation in dorsal, ventral, and thigh coloration. In numerous adult males from several localities Finger II is also swollen. The swelling of Finger II varies intraspecifically, possibly as a function of male reproductive activity. Vocalizations of Colostethus trilineatus recorded at the type locality are temporally distinct from those reported from other localities. At the type locality, advertisement calls are composed of single notes (i.e., not couplets) of (usually) > 40 msec duration and < 90 msec between notes, whereas other calls consist of notes of < 30 msec duration produced as couplets repeated at roughly 200 msec intervals. Although these differences in amplitude modulation could indicate the existence of two species, the calls at the three localities are spectrally identical (all have emphasized frequencies primarily between 5 and 6 kHz) and the specimens examined from these localities are morphologically indistinguishable. For the time being, we interpret the differences in temporal patterning as intraspecific variation. Colostethus melanolaemus is a new species known from the type locality near the mouth of the Napo River and the upper Ampiyacu River. Colostethus melanolaemus most closely resembles C. trilineatus and C. juanii Morales, 1994 , but it differs from them in male throat color, swelling of Finger III, snout-vent length, and advertisement call. Although this species reaches a snout-vent length of nearly 24 mm, Finger IV is shorter than or equal to Finger II, and the distal subarticular tubercle is absent. The advertisement call of C. melanolaemus usually consists of four notes with emphasized frequencies of 3840-4560 Hz. For comparative purposes, the advertisement call of C. juanii is also described. The oblique lateral stripe, found in many dendrobatids, occurs as a diffuse, inconspicuous, pale region or group of small spots that extends from the groin to midway along the flank in Colostethus brunneus (Cope, 1887 ), C. juanii, C. melanolaemus, C. trilineatus, and several other similar species of Colostethus. This pattern differs from the states found in most species of Colostethus. Colostethus alessandroi is a new species found between about 800-1500 m on the eastern slopes of the Andes of southern Peru. This species is most similar to C. mcdiarmidi Reynolds and Foster, 1992, but differs in amount of toe webbing, ventral coloration, snout-vent length, dorsal coloration, shank length, and tympanum diameter. Both C. alessandroi and C. mcdiarmidi have swollen third fingers in adult males. The call of C. alessandroi is composed of couplets repeated rhythmically in series of over 300 calls. Spectral energy is concentrated between 3400 and 4320 Hz, with the greatest energy peaks usually below 4.0 kHz. The first note of each couplet is longer than the second

A new poison frog from Manu National Park, southeastern Peru (Dendrobatidae, Epipedobates). American Museum novitates ; no. 3068

15 p. : ill. (some col.) ; 26 cm.Includes bibliographical references (p. 14-15

Epipedobates simulans, a new cryptic species of poison frog from southeastern Peru, with notes on E. macero and E. petersi (Dendrobatidae). American Museum novitates ; no. 3238

20 p. : ill. (some col.) ; 26 cm.Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20)."Epipedobates simulans is a new species of dendrobatid poison frog from humid forest at the base of the eastern Andes (400-600 m elev.) in the upper Madre de Dios drainage of southeastern Peru. It is very similar to Epipedobates petersi (Silverstone), a composite species that included specimens of E. simulans in the type series. Although similar in color and morphology, these species have allopatric distributions and very different vocalizations. The advertisement call of Epipedobates petersi is shown to be extraordinarily variable. The call may be produced in trains of single, double, or triple notes, with occasional groups of four notes, all at a frequency below 4000 Hz. The call of Epipedobates simulans is a continuous train of single, well-spaced notes given above or mostly above 4000 Hz. Epipedobates simulans is geographically closer to E. macero Rodríguez and Myers, which also has been confused with E. petersi. The range of E. macero is extended northward from the Río Madre de Dios basin to the upper Río Purús near the Brazilian border"--P. [1]

Building Adaptive Capacity in Changing Social-Ecological Systems: Integrating Knowledge in Communal Land-Use Planning in the Peruvian Amazon

Building resilient sustainable social-ecological systems (SES) requires communities to enhance their adaptive capacities. Communal participative land-use planning (Zonificación Participativa Comunal—ZPC) is a tool designed for communities to integrating local and scientific knowledge to sustainably organize and manage their SES. Between 2006 and 2011, a ZPC was developed with communities in the buffer zone of Cordillera Azul National Park (Peru), where rapid demographic changes are converting pre-montane seasonally dry forest into agricultural land. Herein, we analyse how the ZPC enhanced adaptive capacity, enabling the SES to cope with environmental, political and economic changes. Based on qualitative, semi-structured interviews, communities are analysed along their capacities in the dimensions social capital, learning, adaptive management and governance. An analysis of yearly high-resolution forest cover data supports our findings. Deforestation activities in biologically sensitive zones decreased rapidly during the time of the ZPC implementation. We find that particularly the long-term presence of the bridging institution and the continuous testing and reflection of the integrated “hybrid knowledge” enabled communities to develop adaptive capacities. The analysis of ZPC our results reveals the enabling conditions for promoting the learning process to develop a sustainable land-use management in the context of migration and rapid changes

Phylogenetic analysis of some members of the subgenus Persea (Persea, Lauraceae)

"The avocado belongs to the genus Persea, which is one of the most controversial genera of the Lauraceae family, since the relationships within the subgenus Persea are not clear and only recognized two species, Persea americana and Persea schiedeana. It