Machine learning classification of entrepreneurs in British historical census data

This paper presents a binary classification of entrepreneurs in British historical data based on the recent availability of big data from the I-CeM dataset. The main task of the paper is to attribute an employment status to individuals that did not fully report entrepreneur status in earlier censuses (1851-1881). The paper assesses the accuracy of different classifiers and machine learning algorithms, including Deep Learning, for this classification problem. We first adopt a ground-truth dataset from the later censuses to train the computer with a Logistic Regression (which is standard in the literature for this kind of binary classification) to recognize entrepreneurs distinct from non-entrepreneurs (i.e. workers). Our initial accuracy for this base-line method is 0.74. We compare the Logistic Regression with ten optimized machine learning algorithms: Nearest Neighbors, Linear and Radial Support Vector Machine, Gaussian Process, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, AdaBoost, Naive Bayes, and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis. The best results are boosting and ensemble methods. AdaBoost achieves an accuracy of 0.95. Deep-Learning, as a standalone category of algorithms, further improves accuracy to 0.96 without using the rich text-data that characterizes the OccString feature, a string of up to 500 characters with the full occupational statement of each individual collected in the earlier censuses. Finally, and now using this OccString feature, we implement both shallow (bag-of-words algorithm) learning and Deep Learning (Recurrent Neural Network with a Long Short-Term Memory layer) algorithms. These methods all achieve accuracies above 0.99 with Deep Learning Recurrent Neural Network as the best model with an accuracy of 0.9978. The results show that standard algorithms for classification can be outperformed by machine learning algorithms. This confirms the value of extending the techniques traditionally used in the literature for this type of classification problem.ESRC Leverhulme Trust Isaac Newton Trus

A tale of two tails: Do Power Law and Lognormal models fit firm-size distributions in the mid-Victorian era?

The paper explores the frequency and size distributions of firm-size in a novel dataset for the mid-Victorian era from a recent extraction of the England and Wales population censuses of 1851, 1861, 1871, and 1881. The paper contrasts the hypothesis of the Power Laws against the Lognormal model for the tails of the distributions using maximum likelihood estimation, log likelihood ratio, clipped sample coefficient of variation UMPU-Wilks test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, among other state-of-the-art statistical methods. Our results show that the Power Law hypothesis is accepted for the size distribution for the years 1851 and 1861, while 1871 is marginally non-significant, but for 1881 the test is inconclusive. The paper discusses the process that generates these distributions citing recent literature that shows how after adding an i.i.d. noise to the Gibrat's multiplicative model one can recreate a Power Law behaviour. Overall, the paper provides, describes and statistically tests for the very first time a unique historical dataset confirming that the tails of the distributions at least for 1851 and 1861 follow a Pareto model and that the Lognormal model is firmly rejected.This research has been supported by the ESRC under project grant ES/M010953: `Drivers of Entrepreneurship and Small Businesses'. Piloting of the research for 1881 draws from Leverhulme Trust grant RG66385: `The long-term evolution of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)' . Additional support for the coding the 1871 census data was supported by the Isaac Newton Trust research grant 17.07(d):`Business Employers in 1871'

Maternal Obesity, Overweight and Gestational Diabetes Affect the Offspring Neurodevelopment at 6 and 18 Months of Age – A Follow Up from the PREOBE Cohort

The study was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier:NCT01634464).Background: Brain development in fetal life and early infancy is critical to determine lifelong performance in various neuropsychological domains. Metabolic pathologies such as overweight, obesity, and gestational diabetes in pregnant women are prevalent and increasing risk factors that may adversely affect long-term brain development in their offspring.Objective: The objective of this research was to investigate the influence of maternal metabolic pathologies on the neurodevelopment of the offspring at 6 and 18 months of life.Design: This was a prospective case-control study of 331 mother- and child pairs from Granada, Spain. The mothers were included during pregnancy into four groups according to their pre-gestational body mass index and their gestational diabetes status; overweight (n:56), obese (n:64), gestational diabetic (n:79), and healthy normal weight controls (n:132). At 6 months and 18 months we assessed the children with the Bayley III scales of neurodevelopment.Results: At 6 months (n=215), we found significant group differences in cognition composite language, and expressive language. Post hoc test revealed unexpectedly higher scores in the obese group compared to the normal weight group and a similar trend in overweight and diabetic group. The effects on language remained significant after adjusting for confounders with an adjusted odds ratio for a value above median in composite language score of 3.3 (95% CI: 1.1, 10.0; p=0.035) for children of obese mothers. At 18 month (n=197), the offspring born to obese mothers had lost five points in language composite scores and the previous differences in language and cognition was replaced by a suggestive trend of lower gross motor scores in the overweight, obese, and diabetic groups.Conclusions: Infants of obese mothers had a temporary accelerated development of cognition and language, followed by a rapid deceleration until 18 months of age, particularly of language scores. This novel observation prompts further confirmative studies to explore possible placental and neurodevelopmental mechanisms involved.This study was funded by Spanish Ministry of Innovation and Science. Junta de Andalucía: Excellence Projects (P06-CTS-02341); Spanish Ministry of Education (Grant no. SB2010-0025); Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (BFU2012-40254-C03-01); Further support was received by Abbott Laboratories, Granada, Spain

Psychological interventions in asthma

Asthma is a multifactorial chronic respiratory disease characterised by recurrent episodes of airway obstruction. The current management of asthma focuses principally on pharmacological treatments, which have a strong evidence base underlying their use. However, in clinical practice, poor symptom control remains a common problem for patients with asthma. Living with asthma has been linked with psychological co-morbidity including anxiety, depression, panic attacks and behavioural factors such as poor adherence and suboptimal self-management. Psychological disorders have a higher-than-expected prevalence in patients with difficult-to-control asthma. As psychological considerations play an important role in the management of people with asthma, it is not surprising that many psychological therapies have been applied in the management of asthma. There are case reports which support their use as an adjunct to pharmacological therapy in selected individuals, and in some clinical trials, benefit is demonstrated, but the evidence is not consistent. When findings are quantitatively synthesised in meta-analyses, no firm conclusions are able to be drawn and no guidelines recommend psychological interventions. These inconsistencies in findings may in part be due to poor study design, the combining of results of studies using different interventions and the diversity of ways patient benefit is assessed. Despite this weak evidence base, the rationale for psychological therapies is plausible, and this therapeutic modality is appealing to both patients and their clinicians as an adjunct to conventional pharmacological treatments. What are urgently required are rigorous evaluations of psychological therapies in asthma, on a par to the quality of pharmaceutical trials. From this evidence base, we can then determine which interventions are beneficial for our patients with asthma management and more specifically which psychological therapy is best suited for each patient

Real-time PCR Demonstrates Ancylostoma duodenale Is a Key Factor in the Etiology of Severe Anemia and Iron Deficiency in Malawian Pre-school Children

Hookworm infections are a major cause of childhood anemia and iron deficiency. Two hookworm species exist of which Ancylostoma duodenale is the less common, yet causing more blood loss than Necator americanus. Although species differentiation and quantification are both of clinical importance, these are often not performed as the technique is complex and laborious using microscopy. Multiplex real-time PCR is a novel diagnostic tool which allows hookworm species differentiation and infection quantification. We applied this test in 830 stool samples of Malawian children with and without severe anemia. The prevalence of hookworm infections was high. A. duodenale was unexpectedly more prevalent than N. americanus. A. duodenale infections were associated with increased risk for severe anemia and iron deficiency, both of which increased with infection load. The study identifies a need for the quantitative screening of species-specific hookworm infections, which readily can be achieved by real-time-PCR. A. duodenale was independently associated with severe anemia and iron deficiency in our study population

Design of the ExCersion-VCI study: The effect of aerobic exercise on cerebral perfusion in patients with vascular cognitive impairment

There is evidence for a beneficial effect of aerobic exercise on cognition, but underlying mechanisms are unclear. In this study, we test the hypothesis that aerobic exercise increases cerebral blood flow (CBF) in patients with vascular cognitive impairment (VCI). This study is a multicenter single-blind randomized controlled trial among 80 patients with VCI. Most important inclusion criteria are a diagnosis of VCI with Mini-Mental State Examination ≥22 and Clinical Dementia Rating ≤0.5. Participants are randomized into an aerobic exercise group or a control group. The aerobic exercise program aims to improve cardiorespiratory fitness and takes 14 weeks, with a frequency of three times a week. Participants are provided with a bicycle ergometer at home. The control group receives two information meetings. Primary outcome measure is change in CBF. We expect this study to provide insight into the potential mechanism by which aerobic exercise improves hemodynamic status

Association between cervical dysplasia and female genital schistosomiasis diagnosed by genital PCR in Zambian women.

BACKGROUND: Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) is a neglected tropical gynaecological disease that affects millions of women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). FGS is caused by Schistosoma haematobium, a parasitic carcinogen involved in the pathogenesis of squamous cell carcinoma of the bladder. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality are highest in SSA, where pre-cancerous cervical dysplasia is often detected on screening with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). There are no studies evaluating the association between VIA positivity and FGS diagnosed by genital PCR. METHODS: Women were recruited from the Bilharzia and HIV (BILHIV) study in Zambia a community-based study comparing genital self-sampling to provider obtained cervicovaginal-lavage for the diagnosis of FGS in women aged 18-31. FGS was defined as positive Schistosoma DNA from any genital PCR. Urogenital schistosomiasis diagnostics included urine circulating anodic antigen, urine microscopy and portable colposcopy. Participants were offered cervical cancer screening using VIA at Livingstone Central Hospital. Associations of PCR confirmed FGS and other diagnostics with VIA positivity were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: VIA results were available from 237 BILHIV participants. A positive Schistosoma PCR in any genital specimen was detected in 14 women (5.9%), 28.6% (4/14) of these women had positive VIA compared to 9.0% without PCR evidence of schistosome infection (20/223). Schistosoma PCR positivity in any genital specimen was strongly associated with VIA positivity (OR: 6.08, 95% CI: 1.58-23.37, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to find an association between FGS and positive VIA, a relationship that may be causal. Further longitudinal studies are needed

Hippocampus specific iron deficiency alters competition and cooperation between developing memory systems

Iron deficiency (ID) is the most common gestational micronutrient deficiency in the world, targets the fetal hippocampus and striatum and results in long-term behavioral abnormalities. These structures primarily mediate spatial and procedural memory, respectively, in the rodent but have interconnections that result in competition or cooperation during cognitive tasks. We determined whether ID-induced impairment of one alters the function of the other by genetically inducing a 40% reduction of hippocampus iron content in late fetal life in mice and measuring dorsal striatal gene expression and metabolism and the behavioral balance between the two memory systems in adulthood. Slc11a2hipp/hipp mice had similar striatum iron content, but 18% lower glucose and 44% lower lactate levels, a 30% higher phosphocreatine:creatine ratio, and reduced iron transporter gene expression compared to wild type (WT) littermates, implying reduced striatal metabolic function. Slc11a2hipp/hipp mice had longer mean escape times on a cued task paradigm implying impaired procedural memory. Nevertheless, when hippocampal and striatal memory systems were placed in competition using a Morris Water Maze task that alternates spatial navigation and visual cued responses during training, and forces a choice between hippocampal and striatal strategies during probe trials, Slc11a2hipp/hipp mice used the hippocampus-dependent response less often (25%) and the visual cued response more often (75%) compared to WT littermates that used both strategies approximately equally. Hippocampal ID not only reduces spatial recognition memory performance but also affects systems that support procedural memory, suggesting an altered balance between memory systems

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined