Assessment of the MERS-CoV epidemic situation in the Middle East region

The appearance of a novel coronavirus named Middle East (ME) Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding the current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis of both cluster data in the ME region and importations in Europe to assess transmission scenario and incidence of sporadic infections. Our approach is based on a spatial-transmission model integrating mobility data worldwide and allows for variations in the zoonotic/environmental transmission and underascertainment. Maximum likelihood estimates for the ME region indicate the occurrence of a subcritical epidemic (R=0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.30-0.77) associated with a 0.28 (95% CI 0.12-0.85) daily rate of sporadic introductions. Infections in the region appear to be mainly dominated by zoonotic/environmental transmissions, with possible underascertainment (95% CI of estimated to observed sporadic cases in the range 1.03-7.32). No time evolution of the situation emerges. Analyses of flight passenger data from the region indicate areas at high risk of importation. While dismissing an immediate threat for global health security, this analysis provides a baseline scenario for future reference and updates, suggests reinforced surveillance to limit underascertainment, and calls for increased alertness in high-risk areas worldwide.Comment: in press on Eurosurveillance, 16 pages, 3 figure

Direct impact of COVID-19 by estimating disability-adjusted life years at national level in France in 2020

Background: The World Health Organization declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on March 11, 2020. The standardized approach of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) allows for quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality of diseases and injuries. The main objective of this study was to estimate the direct impact of COVID-19 in France in 2020, using DALYs to combine the population health impact of infection fatalities, acute symptomatic infections and their post-acute consequences, in 28 days (baseline) up to 140 days, following the initial infection. Methods: National mortality, COVID-19 screening, and hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model. Scenario analyses were performed by varying the number of symptomatic cases and duration of symptoms up to a maximum of 140 days, defining COVID-19 deaths using the underlying, and associated, cause of death. Results: In 2020, the estimated DALYs due to COVID-19 in France were 990 710 (1472 per 100 000), with 99% of burden due to mortality (982 531 years of life lost, YLL) and 1% due to morbidity (8179 years lived with disability, YLD), following the initial infection. The contribution of YLD reached 375%, assuming the duration of 140 days of post-acute consequences of COVID-19. Post-acute consequences contributed to 49% of the total morbidity burden. The contribution of YLD due to acute symptomatic infections among people younger than 70 years was higher (67%) than among people aged 70 years and above (33%). YLL among people aged 70 years and above, contributed to 74% of the total YLL. Conclusions: COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in France in 2020. The majority of population health loss was due to mortality. Men had higher population health loss due to COVID-19 than women. Post-acute consequences of COVID-19 had a large contribution to the YLD component of the disease burden, even when we assume the shortest duration of 28 days, long COVID burden is large. Further research is recommended to assess the impact of health inequalities associated with these estimates

The current state of introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination into national immunisation schedules in Europe: first results of the VENICE2 2010 survey.

The Venice 2 human papillomavirus vaccination survey evaluates the state of introduction of the HPV vaccination into the national immunisation schedules in the 29 participating countries. As of July 2010, 18 countries have integrated this vaccination. The vaccination policy and achievements vary among those countries regarding target age groups, delivery infrastructures and vaccination coverage reached. Financial constraints remain the major obstacle for the 11 countries who have not yet introduced the vaccination

Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

Free PMC article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8861572/Introduction: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). Methods: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. Results: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. Conclusion: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.Highlights: Seasonal influenza vaccine programmes usually target at-risk and older individuals; We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model for eight European settings; Older people benefit from adjuvanted or high-dose trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines; Adopting mass paediatric influenza vaccination is also likely to be cost-effective; Results rest on vaccine costs, willingness to vaccinate and unknown long-term effects.I-MOVE+ (Integrated Monitoring of Vaccines in Europe) project, received a grant from the European Commission Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 634446).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Introduction of SARS in France, March–April, 2003

We describe severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in France. Patients meeting the World Health Organization definition of a suspected case underwent a clinical, radiologic, and biologic assessment at the closest university-affiliated infectious disease ward. Suspected cases were immediately reported to the Institut de Veille Sanitaire. Probable case-patients were isolated, their contacts quarantined at home, and were followed for 10 days after exposure. Five probable cases occurred from March through April 2003; four were confirmed as SARS coronavirus by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction, serologic testing, or both. The index case-patient (patient A), who had worked in the French hospital of Hanoi, Vietnam, was the most probable source of transmission for the three other confirmed cases; two had been exposed to patient A while on the Hanoi-Paris flight of March 22–23. Timely detection, isolation of probable cases, and quarantine of their contacts appear to have been effective in preventing the secondary spread of SARS in France

Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The level of herd immunity before and after the first 2009 pandemic season is not precisely known, and predicting the shape of the next pandemic H1N1 season is a difficult challenge.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a modelling study based on data on medical visits for influenza-like illness collected by the French General Practitioner Sentinel network, as well as pandemic H1N1 vaccination coverage rates, and an individual-centred model devoted to influenza. We estimated infection attack rates during the first 2009 pandemic H1N1 season in France, and the rates of pre- and post-exposure immunity. We then simulated various scenarios in which a pandemic influenza H1N1 virus would be reintroduced into a population with varying levels of protective cross-immunity, and considered the impact of extending influenza vaccination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the first pandemic season in France, the proportion of infected persons was 18.1% overall, 38.3% among children, 14.8% among younger adults and 1.6% among the elderly. The rates of pre-exposure immunity required to fit data collected during the first pandemic season were 36% in younger adults and 85% in the elderly. We estimated that the rate of post-exposure immunity was 57.3% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 49.6%-65.0%) overall, 44.6% (95%CI 35.5%-53.6%) in children, 53.8% (95%CI 44.5%-63.1%) in younger adults, and 87.4% (95%CI 82.0%-92.8%) in the elderly.</p> <p>The shape of a second season would depend on the degree of persistent protective cross-immunity to descendants of the 2009 H1N1 viruses. A cross-protection rate of 70% would imply that only a small proportion of the population would be affected. With a cross-protection rate of 50%, the second season would have a disease burden similar to the first, while vaccination of 50% of the entire population, in addition to the population vaccinated during the first pandemic season, would halve this burden. With a cross-protection rate of 30%, the second season could be more substantial, and vaccination would not provide a significant benefit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These model-based findings should help to prepare for a second pandemic season, and highlight the need for studies of the different components of immune protection.</p

Gibier d'eau. Arrêté préfectoral autorisant la chasse une heure avant le lever du soleil et une heure après le coucher du soleil. Mesure conduisant à autoriser la chasse de nuit. Illégalité. Liste des oiseaux dont la chasse est interdite. Omission de cinq espèces en méconnaissance de la directive C.E.E. du 2 avril 1979 (art. 7, § 1) et de son annexe II fixant la liste des espèces dont la chasse peut être autorisée par les Etats membres. Illégalité. Chasse au gibier d'eau autorisée jusqu'au 28 février. Méconnaissance de la directive C.E.E. (art. 7, § 4). Chasse pendant la période de retour des oiseaux migrateurs. Illégalité. Tribunal administratif de Grenoble, 28 novembre 1987 Associations Roc et CORA. Avec conclusions et observations.

Gandreau Daniel, Levy-Bruhl Viviane. Gibier d'eau. Arrêté préfectoral autorisant la chasse une heure avant le lever du soleil et une heure après le coucher du soleil. Mesure conduisant à autoriser la chasse de nuit. Illégalité. Liste des oiseaux dont la chasse est interdite. Omission de cinq espèces en méconnaissance de la directive C.E.E. du 2 avril 1979 (art. 7, § 1) et de son annexe II fixant la liste des espèces dont la chasse peut être autorisée par les Etats membres. Illégalité. Chasse au gibier d'eau autorisée jusqu'au 28 février. Méconnaissance de la directive C.E.E. (art. 7, § 4). Chasse pendant la période de retour des oiseaux migrateurs. Illégalité. Tribunal administratif de Grenoble, 28 novembre 1987 Associations Roc et CORA. Avec conclusions et observations.. In: Revue Juridique de l'Environnement, n°3, 1988. pp. 333-344

SARS-CoV-2 testing, infection and places of contamination in France, a national cross-sectional study, December 2021

Abstract Background This study aimed to describe the use of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 in France until December 2021, the characteristics of people infected, and places of contamination. Methods Data were collected from the national 2021 Health Barometer cross-sectional study, which was conducted between February and December 2021 and included French-speaking individuals aged 18–85 years old selected through randomly generated landline and mobile phone numbers. Participants were interviewed about COVID-19-like symptoms in the previous 12 months, diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2, positive diagnosis for SARS-CoV-2, and the place(s) of contamination. Determinants of diagnostic testing and of infection were studied using univariate and multivariate Poisson regressions. Results A total of 24,514 persons participated in the study. We estimated that 66.4% [65.0-67.7] of persons had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 the last time they experienced COVID-19-like symptoms, and that 9.8% [9.3–10.3] of the population in France - with or without symptoms - had been tested positive. Diagnostic testing was less frequent in men, unemployed persons, and people living alone; it was also less frequent during the first months of the pandemic. The estimated proportion of the population infected was higher in healthcare professionals (PRa: 1.5 [1.3–1.7]), those living in large cities ( > = 200 000 inhabitants, and Paris area) (1.4 [1.2–1.6]), and in households comprising > 3 persons (1.7 [1.5-2.0]). It was lower in retired persons (0.8 [0.6–0.97]) and those over 65 years old (0.6 [0.4–0.9]). Almost two-thirds (65.7%) of infected persons declared they knew where they were contaminated; 5.8% [4.5–7.4] reported being contaminated outdoors, 47.9% [44.8–51.0] in unventilated indoor environments, and 43.4% [40.3–46.6] in ventilated indoor environments. Specifically, 51.1% [48.0-54.2] declared they were contaminated at home or in a family of friend’s house, 29.1% [26.4–31.9] at their workplace, 13.9% [11.9–16.1] in a healthcare structure, and 9.0% [7.4–10.8] in a public eating place (e.g., cafeteria, bar, restaurant). Conclusions To limit viral spread, preventive actions should preferentially target persons tested least frequently and those at a higher risk of infection. They should also target contamination in households, healthcare structures, and public eating places. Importantly, contamination is most frequent in places where prevention measures are most difficult to implement