Shigella spp. surveillance in Indonesia: the emergence or reemergence of S. dysenteriae.

From June 1998 through November 1999, Shigella spp. were isolated in 5% of samples from 3,848 children and adults with severe diarrheal illness in hospitals throughout Indonesia. S. dysenteriae has reemerged in Bali, Kalimantan, and Batam and was detected in Jakarta after a hiatus of 15 years

A finite difference method for pricing European and American options under a geometric Lévy process

In this paper we develop a numerical approach to a fractional-order differential Linear Complementarity Problem (LCP) arising in pricing European and American options under a geometric Lévy process. The LCP is first approximated by a nonlinear penalty fractional Black-Scholes (fBS) equation. We then propose a finite difference scheme for the penalty fBS equation. We show that both the continuous and the discretized fBS equations are uniquely solvable and establish the convergence of the numerical solution to the viscosity solution of the penalty fBS equation by proving the consistency, stability and monotonicity of the numerical scheme. We also show that the discretization has the 2nd-order truncation error in both the spatial and time mesh sizes. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and usefulness of the numerical method for pricing both European and American options under the geometric Lévy process

Consensus recommendations of three-dimensional visualization for diagnosis and management of liver diseases

Three-dimensional (3D) visualization involves feature extraction and 3D reconstruction of CT images using a computer processing technology. It is a tool for displaying, describing, and interpreting 3D anatomy and morphological features of organs, thus providing intuitive, stereoscopic, and accurate methods for clinical decision-making. It has played an increasingly significant role in the diagnosis and management of liver diseases. Over the last decade, it has been proven safe and effective to use 3D simulation software for pre-hepatectomy assessment, virtual hepatectomy, and measurement of liver volumes in blood flow areas of the portal vein; meanwhile, the use of 3D models in combination with hydrodynamic analysis has become a novel non-invasive method for diagnosis and detection of portal hypertension. We herein describe the progress of research on 3D visualization, its workflow, current situation, challenges, opportunities, and its capacity to improve clinical decision-making, emphasizing its utility for patients with liver diseases. Current advances in modern imaging technologies have promised a further increase in diagnostic efficacy of liver diseases. For example, complex internal anatomy of the liver and detailed morphological features of liver lesions can be reflected from CT-based 3D models. A meta-analysis reported that the application of 3D visualization technology in the diagnosis and management of primary hepatocellular carcinoma has significant or extremely significant differences over the control group in terms of intraoperative blood loss, postoperative complications, recovery of postoperative liver function, operation time, hospitalization time, and tumor recurrence on short-term follow-up. However, the acquisition of high-quality CT images and the use of these images for 3D visualization processing lack a unified standard, quality control system, and homogeneity, which might hinder the evaluation of application efficacy in different clinical centers, causing enormous inconvenience to clinical practice and scientific research. Therefore, rigorous operating guidelines and quality control systems need to be established for 3D visualization of liver to develop it to become a mature technology. Herein, we provide recommendations for the research on diagnosis and management of 3D visualization in liver diseases to meet this urgent need in this research field

Identifying and prioritizing strategies for comprehensive liver cancer control in Asia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Liver cancer is both common and burdensome in Asia. Effective liver cancer control, however, is hindered by a complex etiology and a lack of coordination across clinical disciplines. We sought to identify strategies for inclusion in a comprehensive liver cancer control for Asia and to compare qualitative and quantitative methods for prioritization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Qualitative interviews (N = 20) with international liver cancer experts were used to identify strategies using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis and to formulate an initial prioritization through frequency analysis. Conjoint analysis, a quantitative stated-preference method, was then applied among Asian liver cancer experts (N = 20) who completed 12 choice tasks that divided these strategies into two mutually exclusive and exhaustive subsets. Respondents' preferred plan was the primary outcome in a choice model, estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression. Priorities were then compared using Spearman's Rho.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eleven strategies were identified: <it>Access to treatments; Centers of excellence; Clinical education; Measuring social burden; Monitoring of at-risk populations; Multidisciplinary management; National guidelines; Public awareness; Research infrastructure; Risk-assessment and referral</it>; and <it>Transplantation infrastructure</it>. Qualitative frequency analysis indicated that <it>Risk-assessment and referral </it>(85%), <it>National guidelines </it>(80%) and <it>Monitoring of at-risk populations </it>(80%) received the highest priority, while conjoint analysis pointed to <it>Monitoring of at-risk populations </it>(p < 0.001), <it>Centers of excellence </it>(p = 0.002), and <it>Access to treatments </it>(p = 0.004) as priorities, while <it>Risk-assessment and referral </it>was the lowest priority (p = 0.645). We find moderate concordance between the qualitative and quantitative methods (rho = 0.20), albeit insignificant (p = 0.554), and a strong concordance between the OLS and logistic regressions (rho = 0.979; p < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Identified strategies can be conceptualized as the ABCs of comprehensive liver cancer control as they focus on <it>Antecedents</it>, <it>Better care </it>and <it>Connections </it>within a national strategy. Some concordance was found between the qualitative and quantitative methods (e.g. <it>Monitoring of at-risk populations</it>), but substantial differences were also identified (e.g. qualitative methods gave highest priority to risk-assessment and referral, but it was the lowest for the quantitative methods), which may be attributed to differences between the methods and study populations, and potential framing effects in choice tasks. Continued research will provide more generalizable estimates of priorities and account for variation across stakeholders and countries.</p

Pandemic Boredom: Little Evidence That Lockdown-Related Boredom Affects Risky Public Health Behaviors Across 116 Countries

Some public officials have expressed concern that policies mandating collective public health behaviors (e.g., national/regional "lockdown ") may result in behavioral fatigue that ultimately renders such policies ineffective. Boredom, specifically, has been singled out as one potential risk factor for noncompliance. We examined whether there was empirical evidence to support this concern during the COVID-19 pandemic in a large cross-national sample of 63,336 community respondents from 116 countries. Although boredom was higher in countries with more COVID-19 cases and in countries that instituted more stringent lockdowns, such boredom did not predict longitudinal within-person decreases in social distancing behavior (or vice versa; n = 8,031) in early spring and summer of 2020. Overall, we found little evidence that changes in boredom predict individual public health behaviors (handwashing, staying home, self-quarantining, and avoiding crowds) over time, or that such behaviors had any reliable longitudinal effects on boredom itself. In summary, contrary to concerns, we found little evidence that boredom posed a public health risk during lockdown and quarantine

Lives versus Livelihoods? Perceived economic risk has a stronger association with support for COVID-19 preventive measures than perceived health risk

This paper examines whether compliance with COVID-19 mitigation measures is motivated by wanting to save lives or save the economy (or both), and which implications this carries to fight the pandemic. National representative samples were collected from 24 countries (N = 25,435). The main predictors were (1) perceived risk to contract coronavirus, (2) perceived risk to suffer economic losses due to coronavirus, and (3) their interaction effect. Individual and country-level variables were added as covariates in multilevel regression models. We examined compliance with various preventive health behaviors and support for strict containment policies. Results show that perceived economic risk consistently predicted mitigation behavior and policy support—and its effects were positive. Perceived health risk had mixed effects. Only two significant interactions between health and economic risk were identified—both positive

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : A modelling study

Publisher Copyright: © 2017 Elsevier LtdBackground The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.publishersversionPeer reviewe