So Many Brands and Varieties to Choose from:Does This Compromise the Control of Food Intake in Humans?

The recent rise in obesity is widely attributed to changes in the dietary environment (e.g., increased availability of energy-dense foods and larger portion sizes). However, a critical feature of our “obesogenic environment” may have been overlooked - the dramatic increase in “dietary variability” (the tendency for specific mass-produced foods to be available in numerous varieties that differ in energy content). In this study we tested the hypothesis that dietary variability compromises the control of food intake in humans. Specifically, we examined the effects of dietary variability in pepperoni pizza on two key outcome variables; i) compensation for calories in pepperoni pizza and ii) expectations about the satiating properties of pepperoni pizza (expected satiation). We reasoned that dietary variability might generate uncertainty about the postingestive effects of a food. An internet-based questionnaire was completed by 199 adults. This revealed substantial variation in exposure to different varieties of pepperoni pizza. In a follow-up study (n= 66; 65% female), high pizza variability was associated with i) poorer compensation for calories in pepperoni pizza and ii) lower expected satiation for pepperoni pizza. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty on caloric compensation was moderated by individual differences in decision making (loss aversion). For the first time, these findings highlight a process by which dietary variability may compromise food-intake control in humans. This is important because it exposes a new feature of Western diets (processed foods in particular) that might contribute to overeating and obesity

Merging expert and empirical data for rare event frequency estimation : pool homogenisation for empirical Bayes models

Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical Bayes estimator will be more accurate. We propose and evaluate a new method using homogenisation factors under the assumption that events are generated from a Homogeneous Poisson Process. The homogenisation factors are scaling constants, which can be elicited through structured expert judgement and used to align the frequencies of different events, hence homogenising the pool. The estimation error relative to the homogeneity of the pool is examined theoretically indicating that reduced error is associated with larger pool homogeneity. The effects of misspecified expert assessments of the homogenisation factors are examined theoretically and through simulation experiments. Our results show that the proposed Empirical Bayes method using homogenisation factors is robust under different degrees of misspecification

Report on IOCCG Workshop Phytoplankton Composition from Space: towards a validation\ud strategy for satellite algorithms

The IOCCG-supported workshop “Phytoplankton Composition from Space: towards a validation strategy for satellite algorithms” was organized as a follow-up to the Phytoplankton Functional Types from Space splinter session, held at the International Ocean Colour Science Meeting (Germany, 2013). The specific goals of the workshop were to: 1. Provide a summary of the status of activities from relevant IOCCG working groups, the 2nd PFT intercomparison working group, PFT validation data sets and other research developments. 2. Provide a PFT validation strategy that considers the different applications of PFT products: and seeks community consensus on datasets and analysis protocols. 3. Discuss possibilities for sustaining ongoing PFT algorithm validation and intercomparison activities. The workshop included 15 talks, breakout sessions and plenary discussions. Talks covered community algorithm intercomparison activity updates, review of established and novel methods for PFT validation, validation activities for specific applications and space-agency requirements for PFT products and validation. These were followed by general discussions on (a) major recommendations for global intercomparison initiative in respect to validation, intercomparison and user’s guide; (b) developing a community consensus on which data sets for validation are optimal and which measurement and analysis protocols should be followed to support sustained validation of PFT products considering different applications; (c) the status of different validation data bases and measurement protocols for different PFT applications, and (d) engagement of the various user communities for PFT algorithms in developing PFT product specifications. From these discussions, two breakout groups provided in depth discussion and recommendations on (1) validation of current algorithms and (2) work plan to prepare for validation of future missions. Breakout group 1 provided an action list for progressing the current international community validation and intercomparison activity. Breakout group 2 provided the following recommendations towards developing a future validation strategy for satellite PFT products: 1. Establish a number of validation sites that maintain measurements of a key set of variables. 2. This set of variables should include: • Phytoplankton pigments from HPLC, phycobilins from spectrofluorometry • Phytoplankton cell counts and ID, volume / carbon estimation and imaging (e.g. from flow cytometry, FlowCam, FlowCytobot type technologies) • Inherent optical properties (e.g. absorption, backscattering, VSF) • Hyperspectral radiometry (both above and in-water) • Particle size distribution • Size-fractionated measurements of pigments and absorption • Genetic / -omics data 3. Undertake an intercomparison of methods / instruments over several years at a few sites to understand our capabilities to fully characterize the phytoplankton community. 4. Organise workshops to address the following topics: • Techniques for particle analysis, characterization and classification • Engagement with modellers and understanding end-user requirements • Data storage and management, standards for data contributors, data challenges In conclusion, the workshop was assessed to have fulfilled its goals. A follow-on meeting will be organized during the International Ocean Colour Science Meeting 2015 in San Francisco. Specific follow-on actions are listed at the end of the report

Phytoplankton functional types from Space.

The concept of phytoplankton functional types has emerged as a useful approach to classifying phytoplankton. It finds many applications in addressing some serious contemporary issues facing science and society. Its use is not without challenges, however. As noted earlier, there is no universally-accepted set of functional types, and the types used have to be carefully selected to suit the particular problem being addressed. It is important that the sum total of all functional types matches all phytoplankton under consideration. For example, if in a biogeochemical study, we classify phytoplankton as silicifiers, calcifiers, DMS-producers and nitrogen fix- ers, then there is danger that the study may neglect phytoplankton that do not contribute in any significant way to those functions, but may nevertheless be a significant contributor to, say primary production. Such considerations often lead to the adoption of a category of “other phytoplankton” in models, with no clear defining traits assigned them, but that are nevertheless necessary to close budgets on phytoplankton processes. Since this group is a collection of all phytoplankton that defy classification according to a set of traits, it is difficult to model their physi- ological processes. Our understanding of the diverse functions of phytoplankton is still growing, and as we recognize more functions, there will be a need to balance the desire to incorporate the increasing number of functional types in models against observational challenges of identifying and mapping them adequately. Modelling approaches to dealing with increasing functional diversity have been proposed, for example, using the complex adaptive systems theory and system of infinite diversity, as in the work of Bruggemann and Kooijman (2007). But it is unlikely that remote-sensing approaches might be able to deal with anything but a few prominent functional types. As long as these challenges are explicitly addressed, the functional- type concept should continue to fill a real need to capture, in an economic fashion, the diversity in phytoplankton, and remote sensing should continue to be a useful tool to map them. Remote sensing of phytoplankton functional types is an emerging field, whose potential is not fully realised, nor its limitations clearly established. In this report, we provide an overview of progress to date, examine the advantages and limitations of various methods, and outline suggestions for further development. The overview provided in this chapter is intended to set the stage for detailed considerations of remote-sensing applications in later chapters. In the next chapter, we examine various in situ methods that exist for observing phytoplankton functional types, and how they relate to remote-sensing techniques. In the subsequent chapters, we review the theoretical and empirical bases for the existing and emerging remote-sensing approaches; assess knowledge about the limitations, assumptions, and likely accuracy or predictive skill of the approaches; provide some preliminary comparative analyses; and look towards future prospects with respect to algorithm development, validation studies, and new satellite mis- sions

New metrics for the Lancet Standing Commission on Liver Disease in the UK

Health Polic

Dipeptidyl peptidase-1 inhibition in patients hospitalised with COVID-19: a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial

Background Neutrophil serine proteases are involved in the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and increased serine protease activity has been reported in severe and fatal infection. We investigated whether brensocatib, an inhibitor of dipeptidyl peptidase-1 (DPP-1; an enzyme responsible for the activation of neutrophil serine proteases), would improve outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Methods In a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial, across 14 hospitals in the UK, patients aged 16 years and older who were hospitalised with COVID-19 and had at least one risk factor for severe disease were randomly assigned 1:1, within 96 h of hospital admission, to once-daily brensocatib 25 mg or placebo orally for 28 days. Patients were randomly assigned via a central web-based randomisation system (TruST). Randomisation was stratified by site and age (65 years or ≥65 years), and within each stratum, blocks were of random sizes of two, four, or six patients. Participants in both groups continued to receive other therapies required to manage their condition. Participants, study staff, and investigators were masked to the study assignment. The primary outcome was the 7-point WHO ordinal scale for clinical status at day 29 after random assignment. The intention-to-treat population included all patients who were randomly assigned and met the enrolment criteria. The safety population included all participants who received at least one dose of study medication. This study was registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN30564012. Findings Between June 5, 2020, and Jan 25, 2021, 406 patients were randomly assigned to brensocatib or placebo; 192 (47·3%) to the brensocatib group and 214 (52·7%) to the placebo group. Two participants were excluded after being randomly assigned in the brensocatib group (214 patients included in the placebo group and 190 included in the brensocatib group in the intention-to-treat population). Primary outcome data was unavailable for six patients (three in the brensocatib group and three in the placebo group). Patients in the brensocatib group had worse clinical status at day 29 after being randomly assigned than those in the placebo group (adjusted odds ratio 0·72 [95% CI 0·57–0·92]). Prespecified subgroup analyses of the primary outcome supported the primary results. 185 participants reported at least one adverse event; 99 (46%) in the placebo group and 86 (45%) in the brensocatib group. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal disorders and infections. One death in the placebo group was judged as possibly related to study drug. Interpretation Brensocatib treatment did not improve clinical status at day 29 in patients hospitalised with COVID-19