Prioritizing Phylogenetic Diversity Captures Functional Diversity Unreliably

In the face of the biodiversity crisis, it is argued that we should prioritize species in order to capture high functional diversity (FD). Because species traits often reflect shared evolutionary history, many researchers have assumed that maximizing phylogenetic diversity (PD) should indirectly capture FD, a hypothesis that we name the “phylogenetic gambit”. Here, we empirically test this gambit using data on ecologically relevant traits from \u3e15,000 vertebrate species. Specifically, we estimate a measure of surrogacy of PD for FD. We find that maximizing PD results in an average gain of 18% of FD relative to random choice. However, this average gain obscures the fact that in over one-third of the comparisons, maximum PD sets contain less FD than randomly chosen sets of species. These results suggest that, while maximizing PD protection can help to protect FD, it represents a risky conservation strategy

Reply to: “Global Conservation of Phylogenetic Diversity Captures More Than Just Functional Diversity”

Academic biologists have long advocated for conserving phylogenetic diversity (PD), often (but not exclusively) on the basis that PD is a useful proxy for “feature diversity”, defined as the variety of forms and functions represented in set of organisms (see below for an extended discussion of this definition). In a recent paper, we assess the extent to which this proxy (which we coined the “phylogenetic gambit”) holds in three empirical datasets (terrestrial mammals, birds, and tropical marine fishes) when using functional traits and functional diversity (FD) to operationalize feature diversity. Owen et al. offer a criticism of our methods for quantifying feature diversity with FD and disagree with our conclusions. We are grateful that Owen et al. have engaged thoughtfully with our work, but we believe there are more points of agreement than Owen et al. imply

Estimating and Modelling Bias of the Hierarchical Partitioning Public-Domain Software: Implications in Environmental Management and Conservation

BACKGROUND: Hierarchical partitioning (HP) is an analytical method of multiple regression that identifies the most likely causal factors while alleviating multicollinearity problems. Its use is increasing in ecology and conservation by its usefulness for complementing multiple regression analysis. A public-domain software "hier.part package" has been developed for running HP in R software. Its authors highlight a "minor rounding error" for hierarchies constructed from >9 variables, however potential bias by using this module has not yet been examined. Knowing this bias is pivotal because, for example, the ranking obtained in HP is being used as a criterion for establishing priorities of conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using numerical simulations and two real examples, we assessed the robustness of this HP module in relation to the order the variables have in the analysis. Results indicated a considerable effect of the variable order on the amount of independent variance explained by predictors for models with >9 explanatory variables. For these models the nominal ranking of importance of the predictors changed with variable order, i.e. predictors declared important by its contribution in explaining the response variable frequently changed to be either most or less important with other variable orders. The probability of changing position of a variable was best explained by the difference in independent explanatory power between that variable and the previous one in the nominal ranking of importance. The lesser is this difference, the more likely is the change of position. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: HP should be applied with caution when more than 9 explanatory variables are used to know ranking of covariate importance. The explained variance is not a useful parameter to use in models with more than 9 independent variables. The inconsistency in the results obtained by HP should be considered in future studies as well as in those already published. Some recommendations to improve the analysis with this HP module are given

Historical Legacies in World Amphibian Diversity Revealed by the Turnover and Nestedness Components of Beta Diversity

Historic processes are expected to influence present diversity patterns in combination with contemporary environmental factors. We hypothesise that the joint use of beta diversity partitioning methods and a threshold-based approach may help reveal the effect of large-scale historic processes on present biodiversity. We partitioned intra-regional beta diversity into its turnover (differences in composition caused by species replacements) and nestedness-resultant (differences in species composition caused by species losses) components. We used piecewise regressions to show that, for amphibian beta diversity, two different world regions can be distinguished. Below parallel 37, beta diversity is dominated by turnover, while above parallel 37, beta diversity is dominated by nestedness. Notably, these regions are revealed when the piecewise regression method is applied to the relationship between latitude and the difference between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present temperature but not when present energy-water factors are analysed. When this threshold effect of historic climatic change is partialled out, current energy-water variables become more relevant to the nestedness-resultant dissimilarity patterns, while mountainous areas are associated with higher spatial turnover. This result suggests that nested patterns are caused by species losses that are determined by physiological constraints, whereas turnover is associated with speciation and/or Pleistocene refugia. Thus, the new threshold-based view may help reveal the role of historic factors in shaping present amphibian beta diversity patterns

Epigenetic prediction of response to anti-PD-1 treatment in non-small-cell lung cancer: a multicenter, retrospective analysis

Background: Anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) treatment for advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has improved the survival of patients. However, a substantial percentage of patients do not respond to this treatment. We examined the use of DNA methylation profiles to determine the efficacy of anti-PD-1 treatment in patients recruited with current stage IV NSCLC. Methods: In this multicentre study, we recruited adult patients from 15 hospitals in France, Spain, and Italy who had histologically proven stage IV NSCLC and had been exposed to PD-1 blockade during the course of the disease. The study structure comprised a discovery cohort to assess the correlation between epigenetic features and clinical benefit with PD-1 blockade and two validation cohorts to assess the validity of our assumptions. We first established an epigenomic profile based on a microarray DNA methylation signature (EPIMMUNE) in a discovery set of tumour samples from patients treated with nivolumab or pembrolizumab. The EPIMMUNE signature was validated in an independent set of patients. A derived DNA methylation marker was validated by a single-methylation assay in a validation cohort of patients. The main study outcomes were progression-free survival and overall survival. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate progression-free and overall survival, and calculated the differences between the groups with the log-rank test. We constructed a multivariate Cox model to identify the variables independently associated with progression-free and overall survival. Findings: Between June 23, 2014, and May 18, 2017, we obtained samples from 142 patients: 34 in the discovery cohort, 47 in the EPIMMUNE validation cohort, and 61 in the derived methylation marker cohort (the T-cell differentiation factor forkhead box P1 [FOXP1]). The EPIMMUNE signature in patients with stage IV NSCLC treated with anti-PD-1 agents was associated with improved progression-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0·010, 95% CI 3·29 × 10 −4–0·0282; p=0·0067) and overall survival (0·080, 0·017–0·373; p=0·0012). The EPIMMUNE-positive signature was not associated with PD-L1 expression, the presence of CD8+ cells, or mutational load. EPIMMUNE-negative tumours were enriched in tumour-associated macrophages and neutrophils, cancer-associated fibroblasts, and senescent endothelial cells. The EPIMMUNE-positive signature was associated with improved progression-free survival in the EPIMMUNE validation cohort (0·330, 0·149–0·727; p=0·0064). The unmethylated status of FOXP1 was associated with improved progression-free survival (0·415, 0·209–0·802; p=0·0063) and overall survival (0·409, 0·220–0·780; p=0·0094) in the FOXP1 validation cohort. The EPIMMUNE signature and unmethylated FOXP1 were not associated with clinical benefit in lung tumours that did not receive immunotherapy. Interpretation: Our study shows that the epigenetic milieu of NSCLC tumours indicates which patients are most likely to benefit from nivolumab or pembrolizumab treatments. The methylation status of FOXP1 could be associated with validated predictive biomarkers such as PD-L1 staining and mutational load to better select patients who will experience clinical benefit with PD-1 blockade, and its predictive value should be evaluated in prospective studies

Intermediate predator naïveté and sex-skewed vulnerability predict the impact of an invasive higher predator

The spread of invasive species continues to reduce biodiversity across all regions and habitat types globally. However, invader impact prediction can be nebulous, and approaches often fail to integrate coupled direct and indirect invader effects. Here, we examine the ecological impacts of an invasive higher predator on lower trophic groups, further developing methodologies to more holistically quantify invader impact. We employ functional response (FR, resource use under different densities) and prey switching experiments to examine the trait- and density-mediated impacts of the invasive mosquitofish Gambusia affinis on an endemic intermediate predator Lovenula raynerae (Copepoda). Lovenula raynerae effectively consumed larval mosquitoes, but was naïve to mosquitofish cues, with attack rates and handling times of the intermediate predator unaffected by mosquitofish cue-treated water. Mosquitofish did not switch between male and female prey, consistently displaying a strong preference for female copepods. We thus demonstrate a lack of risk-reduction activity in the presence of invasive fish by L. raynerae and, in turn, high susceptibility of such intermediate trophic groups to invader impact. Further, we show that mosquitofish demonstrate sex-skewed predator selectivity towards intermediate predators of mosquito larvae, which may affect predator population demographics and, perversely, increase disease vector proliferations. We advocate the utility of FRs and prey switching combined to holistically quantify invasive species impact potential on native organisms at multiple trophic levels

Ecological drivers of plant diversity patterns in remnants coastal sand dune ecosystems along the northern Adriatic coastline

Coastal sand dunes represent one of the most fragile ecosystems in the Mediterranean basin. These habitats naturally suffer the action of several limiting factors such as sand burial, marine aerosol and low soil fertility; on the other hand, they often host species of high conservation value. Over the last decades, they have also experienced a high level of biological invasion. In this study, we sampled psammophilous vegetation in two sites in the northern Adriatic coast belonging to the Natura 2000 network to describe diversity patterns and to identify the main ecological drivers of species diversity. Plant species richness and their abundance were assessed in each plot. Differences in species composition for native and alien species were compared via PERMANOVA analysis. Species complementarity was explored by partitioning beta diversity in its spatial components (richness and replacement). A Generalized Linear Model was also computed to assess the main environmental factors that may promote invasiveness in these ecosystems. For the investigated area, our results highlight the strong differentiation in community composition both in alien and native species: in particular alien species showed on average a lower complementarity among habitats compared to native species. Specifically, communities seem to be more diversified when larger spatial scales were considered. Beta diversity in both groups appears to be more dominated by the richness component with respect to the replacement component. Furthermore, in these habitats, the occurrence of alien species was shown to be related to geomorphological predictors more than climatic variables