Challenges and Benefits of Standardising Early Warning Systems: A Case Study of New Zealand’s Volcanic Alert Level System

Volcano early warning systems are used globally to communicate volcano-related information to diverse stakeholders ranging from specific user groups to the general public, or both. Within the framework of a volcano early warning system, Volcano Alert Level (VAL) systems are commonly used as a simple communication tool to inform society about the status of activity at a specific volcano. Establishing a VAL system that is effective for multiple volcanoes can be challenging, given that each volcano has specific behavioural characteristics. New Zealand has a wide range of volcano types and geological settings, including rhyolitic calderas capable of very large eruptions (>500 km3) and frequent unrest episodes, explosive andesitic stratovolcanoes, and effusive basaltic eruptions at both caldera and volcanic field settings. There is also a range in eruption frequency, requiring the VAL system to be used for both frequently active ‘open-vent’ volcanoes, and reawakening ‘closed-vent’ volcanoes. Furthermore, New Zealand’s volcanoes are situated in a variety of risk settings ranging from the Auckland Volcanic Field, which lies beneath a city of 1.4 million people; to Mt. Ruapehu, the location of popular ski fields that are occasionally impacted by ballistics and lahars, and produces tephra that falls in distant cities. These wide-ranging characteristics and their impact on society provide opportunities to learn from New Zealand’s experience with VAL systems, and the adoption of a standardised single VAL system for all of New Zealand’s volcanoes following a review in 2014. This chapter outlines the results of qualitative research conducted in 2010–2014 with key stakeholders and scientists, including from the volcano observatory at GNS Science, to ensure that the resulting standardised VAL system is an effective communication tool. A number of difficulties were faced in revising the VAL system so that it remains effective for all of the volcanic settings that exist in New Zealand. If warning products are standardised too much, end-user decision making and action can be limited when unusual situations occur, e.g., there may be loss of specific relevance in the alert message. Specific decision-making should be based on more specific parameters than the VAL alone, however wider VAL system standardisation can increase credibility, a known requirement for effective warning, by ensuring that warning sources are clear, trusted and widely understood. With a credible source, user groups are less likely to look for alternatives or confirmation, leading to faster action. Here we consider volcanic warnings within the wider concept of end-to-end multi-hazard early warning systems including detection, evaluation, notification, decision-making and action elements (based on Carsell et al. 2004)

The secreted proteins of Achlya hypogyna and Thraustotheca clavata identify the ancestral oomycete secretome and reveal gene acquisitions by horizontal gene transfer

This is the final version. Available on open access from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this recordSaprotrophic and parasitic microorganisms secrete proteins into the environment to breakdown macromolecules and obtain nutrients. The molecules secreted are collectively termed the "secretome" and the composition and function of this set of proteins varies depending on the ecology, life cycle, and environment of an organism. Beyond the function of nutrient acquisition, parasitic lineages must also secrete molecules to manipulate their host. Here, we use a combination of de novo genome and transcriptome sequencing and bioinformatic identification of signal peptides to identify the putative secreted proteome of two oomycetes, the facultative parasite Achlya hypogyna and free-living Thraustotheca clavata. By comparing the secretomes of these saprolegnialean oomycetes with that of eight other oomycetes, we were able to characterize the evolution of this protein set across the oomycete clade. These species span the last common ancestor of the two major oomycete families allowing us to identify the ancestral secretome. This putative ancestral secretome consists of at least 84 gene families. Only 11 of these gene families are conserved across all 10 secretomes analyzed and the two major branches in the oomycete radiation. Notably, we have identified expressed elicitin-like effector genes in the saprotrophic decomposer, T. clavata. Phylogenetic analyses show six novel horizontal gene transfers to the oomycete secretome from bacterial and fungal donor lineages, four of which are specific to the Saprolegnialeans. Comparisons between free-living and pathogenic taxa highlight the functional changes of oomycete secretomes associated with shifts in lifestyle.University of Rhode Island College of the Environment and Life SciencesU.S. Department of AgricultureNational Institutes of Health (NIH)National Science FoundationDivision of Biology and Medicine, Brown Universit

Association of nail biting and psychiatric disorders in children and their parents in a psychiatrically referred sample of children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nail biting (NB) is a very common unwanted behavior. The majority of children are motivated to stop NB and have already tried to stop it, but are generally unsuccessful in doing so. It is a difficult behavior to modify or treat. The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of co-morbid psychiatric disorders in a clinical sample of children with NB who present at a child and adolescent mental healthcare outpatient clinic and the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in their parents.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A consecutive sample of 450 referred children was examined for NB and 63 (14%) were found to have NB. The children and adolescents with nail biting and their parents were interviewed according to DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. They were also asked about lip biting, head banging, skin biting, and hair pulling behaviors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nail biting is common amongst children and adolescents referred to a child and adolescent mental health clinic. The most common co-morbid psychiatric disorders in these children were attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (74.6%), oppositional defiant disorder (36%), separation anxiety disorder (20.6%), enuresis (15.6%), tic disorder (12.7%) and obsessive compulsive disorder (11.1%). The rates of major depressive disorder, mental retardation, and pervasive developmental disorder were 6.7%, 9.5%, 3.2%, respectively. There was no association between the age of onset of nail biting and the co-morbid psychiatric disorder. Severity and frequency of NB were not associated with any co-morbid psychiatric disorder. About 56.8% of the mothers and 45.9% of the fathers were suffering from at least one psychiatric disorder. The most common psychiatric disorder found in these parents was major depression.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Nail biting presents in a significant proportion of referrals to a mental healthcare clinic setting. Nail biting should be routinely looked for and asked for in the child and adolescent mental healthcare setting because it is common in a clinical population, easily visible in consultation and relatively unintrusive to ask about. If present, its detection can then be followed by looking for other more subtle stereotypic or self-mutilating behaviors.</p

Classification of qualitative fieldnotes collected during quantitative sensory testing: a step towards the development of a new mixed methods approach in pain rseearch

Purpose: Quantitative sensory testing (QST) is a standardized method to assess somatosensory function. The collection of qualitative information, during the QST procedure, could be an interesting way to facilitate the characterization of altered sensory perception and the identification of different pain phenotypes. The aims of this study were 1) to classify qualitative fieldnotes of sensory abnormalities collected during an independent QST study, and 2) to generate a qualitative interview guide that could be included in the traditional QST procedure as a step towards the implementation of a mixed methods approach. Patients and Methods: QST data were collected from 48 chronic neuropathic pain patients treated with spinal cord stimulation (SCS). Three body areas, with or without SCS, were tested: the painful limb targeted by SCS, the contralateral area, and the ipsilateral upper limb. After each trial of each QST modality, patients were encouraged to report any sensory abnormalities they could identify with a pain quality scale or using their own words. Results: Qualitative self-reported sensory abnormalities were dichotomized into two groups: altered sensory intensities and altered sensory perceptions. Altered sensory intensities were classified as sensory loss or sensory gain subgroups. Altered sensory perceptions were classified as paresthesia and dysesthesia subgroups Overall, 630 qualitative fieldnotes of altered sensations were collected: 385 on the painful limb, 173 at the contralateral area, and 72 at the ipsilateral upper limb. Based on these qualitative data, we propose a standardized method to collect qualitative data involving 9 open- and close-ended questions and 21 codes. Conclusion: Our findings have highlighted the value of qualitative sensory evaluation during QST and constitute an important milestone in the development of a mixed methods protocol in phenotyping research

Impact of facial conformation on canine health: Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome

The domestic dog may be the most morphologically diverse terrestrial mammalian species known to man; pedigree dogs are artificially selected for extreme aesthetics dictated by formal Breed Standards, and breed-related disorders linked to conformation are ubiquitous and diverse. Brachycephaly–foreshortening of the facial skeleton–is a discrete mutation that has been selected for in many popular dog breeds e.g. the Bulldog, Pug, and French Bulldog. A chronic, debilitating respiratory syndrome, whereby soft tissue blocks the airways, predominantly affects dogs with this conformation, and thus is labelled Brachycephalic Obstructive Airway Syndrome (BOAS). Despite the name of the syndrome, scientific evidence quantitatively linking brachycephaly with BOAS is lacking, but it could aid efforts to select for healthier conformations. Here we show, in (1) an exploratory study of 700 dogs of diverse breeds and conformations, and (2) a confirmatory study of 154 brachycephalic dogs, that BOAS risk increases sharply in a non-linear manner as relative muzzle length shortens. BOAS only occurred in dogs whose muzzles comprised less than half their cranial lengths. Thicker neck girths also increased BOAS risk in both populations: a risk factor for human sleep apnoea and not previously realised in dogs; and obesity was found to further increase BOAS risk. This study provides evidence that breeding for brachycephaly leads to an increased risk of BOAS in dogs, with risk increasing as the morphology becomes more exaggerated. As such, dog breeders and buyers should be aware of this risk when selecting dogs, and breeding organisations should actively discourage exaggeration of this high-risk conformation in breed standards and the show ring

Potentially inappropriate medication in older participants of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) - Sex differences and associations with morbidity and medication use

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity in advanced age and the need for drug treatment may lead to polypharmacy, while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes may increase the risk of adverse drug events (ADEs). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of subjects using potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in a cohort of older and predominantly healthy adults in relation to polypharmacy and morbidity. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were available from 1,382 study participants (median age 69 years, IQR 67-71, 51.3% females) of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II). PIM was classified according to the EU(7)-PIM and German PRISCUS (representing a subset of the former) list. Polypharmacy was defined as the concomitant use of at least five drugs. A morbidity index (MI) largely based on the Charlson Index was applied to evaluate the morbidity burden. RESULTS: Overall, 24.1% of the participants were affected by polypharmacy. On average, men used 2 (IQR 1-4) and women 3 drugs (IQR 1-5). According to PRISCUS and EU(7)-PIM, 5.9% and 22.6% of participants received at least one PIM, while use was significantly more prevalent in females (25.5%) compared to males (19.6%) considering EU(7)-PIM (p = 0.01). In addition, morbidity in males receiving PIM according to EU(7)-PIM was higher (median MI 1, IQR 1-3) compared to males without PIM use (median MI 1, IQR 0-2, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: PIM use occurred more frequently in women than in men, while it was associated with higher morbidity in males. As expected, EU(7)-PIM identifies more subjects as PIM users than the PRISCUS list but further studies are needed to investigate the differential impact of both lists on ADEs and outcome. KEY POINTS: We found PIM use to be associated with a higher number of regular medications and with increased morbidity. Additionally, we detected a higher prevalence of PIM use in females compared to males, suggesting that women and people needing intensive drug treatment are patient groups, who are particularly affected by PIM use

Projected WIMP sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4×10-48 cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3×10-43 cm2 (7.1×10-42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020

Simulations of events for the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) dark matter experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter search aims to achieve a sensitivity to the WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross-section down to (1–2)×10−12 pb at a WIMP mass of 40 GeV/c2. This paper describes the simulations framework that, along with radioactivity measurements, was used to support this projection, and also to provide mock data for validating reconstruction and analysis software. Of particular note are the event generators, which allow us to model the background radiation, and the detector response physics used in the production of raw signals, which can be converted into digitized waveforms similar to data from the operational detector. Inclusion of the detector response allows us to process simulated data using the same analysis routines as developed to process the experimental data

Projected sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN experiment to the 0νββ decay of Xe 136

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will enable a neutrinoless double β decay search in parallel to the main science goal of discovering dark matter particle interactions. We report the expected LZ sensitivity to Xe136 neutrinoless double β decay, taking advantage of the significant (&gt;600 kg) Xe136 mass contained within the active volume of LZ without isotopic enrichment. After 1000 live-days, the median exclusion sensitivity to the half-life of Xe136 is projected to be 1.06×1026 years (90% confidence level), similar to existing constraints. We also report the expected sensitivity of a possible subsequent dedicated exposure using 90% enrichment with Xe136 at 1.06×1027 years