Dynamic interaction between tectonic plates, subducting slabs, and the mantle

Mantle convection models have been formulated to investigate the relation between plate kinematics and mantle dynamics. The cylindrical geometry models incorporate mobile, faulted plate margins, a phase change at 670 km depth, non-Newtonian rheology, and tectonic plates. Models with a variety of parameters indicate that a relatively stationary trench is more likely to be associated with a subducted slab that penetrates into the lower mantle with a steep dip angle. However, a subducted slab that is deflected above the 670-km phase change with a shallow dip is more likely to be associated with a margin that has undergone rapid retrograde trench migration. This relation between slab morphology and plate kinematics is consistent with seismic tomography and plate reconstruction of western Pacific subduction zones. The efficiency of slab penetration through the 670-km phase change is controlled by both the buoyancy of the subducting plate and the mobility of the overriding plate. While older subducting plates have a greater propensity for slab penetration, trench mobility reduces the propensity for slab penetration. Smaller overriding plates have a greater mobility. When subducted slabs approach the bottom thermal boundary layer, hot fluid is pushed aside, and plumes form on the periphery of slab accumulations. There are sharp temperature contrasts between the subducted slab and the thermal boundary layer at the core mantle boundary (CMB). Old subducted slabs and a thermal boundary layer lead to large-scale lateral structure near the CMB

Annual, seasonal, and diel surface energy partitioning in the semiarid Sand Hills of Nebraska, USA

Study Region: The Nebraska Sand Hills consisting of four major land cover types: (1) lakes and wetlands (∼5% for both), (2) subirrigated meadows (∼10%), (3) dry valleys (∼20%), and (4) upland dunes (∼65%). Study Focus: Examination of surface energy and water balances on multiple temporal scales with primary focus on latent heat flux (λE), and evapotranspiration (ET), to gain a better understanding of the annual, seasonal, and diel properties of surface energy partitioning among different Sand Hills ecosystems to improve regional water resource management. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Based on surface energy and water balance measurements using Bowen ratio energy balance systems at three locations during 2004, we find a strong spatial gradient between sites in latent (λE) and sensible (H) heat flux due to differences in topography, soils, and plant community composition on all timescales. Seasonally, all land covers show the greatest λE in summer. Our results show that subirrigated meadows, dry valleys, and upland dunes allocate roughly 81%, 50%, and 41% of available energy to λE, respectively, during the growing season. The subirrigated meadow was the only cover type where cumulative annual ET surpassed cumulative annual precipitation (i.e. net loss of water to the atmosphere). Therefore, the dry valleys and upland dunes are where net groundwater recharge to the High Plains Aquifer is occurring

Evaporation from a shallow, saline lake in the Nebraska Sandhills: Energy balance drivers of seasonal and interannual variability

Despite potential evaporation rates in excess of the local precipitation, dry climates often support saline lakes through groundwater inputs of water and associated solutes. These groundwater-fed lakes are important indicators of environmental change, in part because their shallow water levels and salinity are very sensitive to weather and climatic variability. Some of this sensitivity arises from high rates of open-water evaporation, which is a dominant but poorly quantified process for saline lakes. This study used the Bowen ratio energy budget method to calculate open-water evaporation rates for Alkali Lake, a saline lake in the Nebraska Sandhills region (central United States), where numerous groundwaterfed lakes occupy the landscape. Evaporation rates were measured during the warm season (May – October) over three consecutive years (2007–2009) to gain insights into the climatic and limnological factors driving evaporation, as well as the partitioning of energy balance components at seasonal and interannual time scales. Results show a seasonal peak in evaporation rate in late June of 7.0 mm day–1 (on average), with a maximum daily rate of 10.5 mm day–1 and a 3-year mean July-September (JAS) rate of 5.1 mm day–1, which greatly exceeds the long-term JAS precipitation rate of 1.3 mm day–1. Seasonal variability in lake evaporation closely follows that of net radiation and lake surface temperature, with sensible heat flux and heat storage variations being relatively small, except in response to short-term, synoptic events. Interannual changes in the surface energy balance were weak, by comparison, although a 6-fold increase in mean lake level over the three years (0.05–0.30 m) led to greater heat storage within the lake, an enhanced JAS lake-air temperature gradient, and greater sensible heat loss. These large variations in water level were also associated with large changes in absolute salinity (from 28 to 118 g kg–1), with periods of high salinity characterized by reductions in mass transfer estimates of evaporation rate by up to 20%, depending on atmospheric conditions and absolute salinity. Energy balance estimates of evaporation, on the other hand, were found to be less sensitive to variations in salinity. These results provide regional insights for lakes in the Nebraska Sandhills region and implications for estimation of the energy and water balance of saline lakes in similar arid and semi-arid landscapes

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes

Lake-size dependency of wind shear and convection as controls on gas exchange

High-frequency physical observations from 40 temperate lakes were used to examine the relative contributions of wind shear (u*) and convection (w*) to turbulence in the surface mixed layer. Seasonal patterns of u* and w* were dissimilar; u* was often highest in the spring, while w * increased throughout the summer to a maximum in early fall. Convection was a larger mixed-layer turbulence source than wind shear (u */w*-1 for lakes* and w* differ in temporal pattern and magnitude across lakes, both convection and wind shear should be considered in future formulations of lake-air gas exchange, especially for small lakes. © 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.Jordan S. Read, David P. Hamilton, Ankur R. Desai, Kevin C. Rose, Sally MacIntyre, John D. Lenters, Robyn L. Smyth, Paul C. Hanson, Jonathan J. Cole, Peter A. Staehr, James A. Rusak, Donald C. Pierson, Justin D. Brookes, Alo Laas, and Chin H. W

Investigation of 2 Models to Set and Evaluate Quality Targets for Hb A1c: Biological Variation and Sigma-Metrics

BACKGROUND: A major objective of the IFCC Task Force on Implementation of HbA1c Standardization is to develop a model to define quality targets for glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1c). METHODS: Two generic models, biological variation and sigma-metrics, are investigated. We selected variables in the models for Hb A1c and used data of external quality assurance/proficiency testing programs to evaluate the suitability of the models to set and evaluate quality targets within and between laboratories. RESULTS: In the biological variation model, 48% of individual laboratories and none of the 26 instrument groups met the minimum performance criterion. In the sigma-metrics model, with a total allowable error (TAE) set at 5 mmol/mol (0.46% NGSP), 77% of the individual laboratories and 12 of 26 instrument groups met the 2σ criterion. CONCLUSIONS: The biological variation and sigma-metrics models were demonstrated to be suitable for setting and evaluating quality targets within and between laboratories. The sigma-metrics model is more flexible, as both the TAE and the risk of failure can be adjusted to the situation—for example, requirements related to diagnosis/monitoring or international authorities. With the aim of reaching (inter)national consensus on advice regarding quality targets for Hb A1c, the Task Force suggests the sigma-metrics model as the model of choice, with default values of 5 mmol/mol (0.46%) for TAE and risk levels of 2σ and 4σ for routine laboratories and laboratories performing clinical trials, respectively. These goals should serve as a starting point for discussion with international stakeholders in the field of diabetes

Discordance in glycemic categories and regression to normality at baseline in 10,000 people in a Type 2 diabetes prevention trial

The world diabetes population quadrupled between 1980 and 2014 to 422 million and the enormous impact of Type 2 diabetes is recognised by the recent creation of national Type 2 diabetes prevention programmes. There is uncertainty about how to correctly risk stratify people for entry into prevention programmes, how combinations of multiple ‘at high risk’ glycemic categories predict outcome, and how the large recently defined ‘at risk’ population based on an elevated glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) should be managed. We identified all 141,973 people at highest risk of diabetes in our population, and screened 10,000 of these with paired fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c for randomisation into a very large Type 2 diabetes prevention trial. Baseline discordance rate between highest risk categories was 45.6 %, and 21.3 - 37.0 % of highest risk glycaemic categories regressed to normality between paired baseline measurements (median 40 days apart). Accurate risk stratification using both fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c data, the use of paired baseline data, and awareness of diagnostic imprecision at diagnostic thresholds would avoid substantial overestimation of the true risk of Type 2 diabetes and the potential benefits (or otherwise) of intervention, in high risk subjects entering prevention trials and programmes

Fostering effective and sustainable scientific collaboration and knowledge exchange: a workshop-based approach to establish a national ecological observatory network (NEON) domain-specific user group

The decision to establish a network of researchers centers on identifying shared research goals. Ecologically specific regions, such as the USA’s National Ecological Observatory Network’s (NEON’s) eco-climatic domains, are ideal locations by which to assemble researchers with a diverse range of expertise but focused on the same set of ecological challenges. The recently established Great Lakes User Group (GLUG) is NEON’s first domain specific ensemble of researchers, whose goal is to address scientific and technical issues specific to the Great Lakes Domain 5 (D05) by using NEON data to enable advancement of ecosystem science. Here, we report on GLUG’s kick off workshop, which comprised lightning talks, keynote presentations, breakout brainstorming sessions and field site visits. Together, these activities created an environment to foster and strengthen GLUG and NEON user engagement. The tangible outcomes of the workshop exceeded initial expectations and include plans for (i) two journal articles (in addition to this one), (ii) two potential funding proposals, (iii) an assignable assets request and (iv) development of classroom activities using NEON datasets. The success of this 2.5-day event was due to a combination of factors, including establishment of clear objectives, adopting engaging activities and providing opportunities for active participation and inclusive collaboration with diverse participants. Given the success of this approach we encourage others, wanting to organize similar groups of researchers, to adopt the workshop framework presented here which will strengthen existing collaborations and foster new ones, together with raising greater awareness and promotion of use of NEON datasets. Establishing domain specific user groups will help bridge the scale gap between site level data collection and addressing regional and larger ecological challenges

Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: Rapid degradation of the world\u27s large lakes

Large lakes of the world are habitats for diverse species, including endemic taxa, and are valuable resources that provide humanity with many ecosystem services. They are also sentinels of global and local change, and recent studies in limnology and paleolimnology have demonstrated disturbing evidence of their collective degradation in terms of depletion of resources (water and food), rapid warming and loss of ice, destruction of habitats and ecosystems, loss of species, and accelerating pollution. Large lakes are particularly exposed to anthropogenic and climatic stressors. The Second Warning to Humanity provides a framework to assess the dangers now threatening the world\u27s large lake ecosystems and to evaluate pathways of sustainable development that are more respectful of their ongoing provision of services. Here we review current and emerging threats to the large lakes of the world, including iconic examples of lake management failures and successes, from which we identify priorities and approaches for future conservation efforts. The review underscores the extent of lake resource degradation, which is a result of cumulative perturbation through time by long-term human impacts combined with other emerging stressors. Decades of degradation of large lakes have resulted in major challenges for restoration and management and a legacy of ecological and economic costs for future generations. Large lakes will require more intense conservation efforts in a warmer, increasingly populated world to achieve sustainable, high-quality waters. This Warning to Humanity is also an opportunity to highlight the value of a long-term lake observatory network to monitor and report on environmental changes in large lake ecosystems

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature is required to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inland bodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collected in situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (air temperatures, solar radiation, and cloud cover) and geomorphometric characteristics (latitude, longitude, elevation, lake surface area, maximum depth, mean depth, and volume) that influence lake surface temperatures were compiled for each lake. This unique dataset offers an invaluable baseline perspective on global-scale lake thermal conditions as environmental change continues