STUDYING THE EFFECTS OF MOBILIZATION MESSAGES IN A STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT: APPLYING THE RECEIVE-ACCEPT-SAMPLE (RAS) MODEL

The study of mobilization has presented scholars with an interesting puzzle as we attempt to identify who is responsive to mobilization messages. The framing of the debate by Kenneth M. Goldstein and Matthew Holleque (2010) pits competing theoretical arguments against one another without a satisfying conclusion. Some argue it is the least informed segments of the population who will be responsive (e.g., Rosenstone and Hansen 1993), while others posit it is those with high levels of political information and past involvement (e.g., Hillygus 2005). In this dissertation I present a third explanation that may provide a better framework for studying the debate. Applying John Zaller’s Receive-Accept-Sample (RAS) model to the study of mobilization, I find not only do individuals with moderate levels of past voting behavior respond to mobilization messages, but so do those with high and low levels. The key to the RAS model is exposure to the message. Thus understanding who is most likely to receive a mobilization message is central to this project. I conducted field experiments during a magisterial judicial election in a major U.S. city to collect my data. The purpose of those experiments was to capture the effects of mobilization messages on an individual’s probability of voting on Election Day. My results indicate including individuals who would normally not receive mobilization messages (i.e., those who do not have a history of voting) introduce selection bias. Once I control for that bias, I find not only are individuals with moderate levels of past voting behavior responsive, but so are those with high and low levels of past turnout. Receiving a get-out-the-vote door hanger two days prior to an election increases the probability of voting by 3.76% for moderate voters, 3.82% for frequent voters, and 2.88% for infrequent voters. The effects of mobilization messages are not limited to turnout. Perhaps more important than turnout, I found that a candidate who conducts a last minute GOTV drive can increase their vote share by as much as 25%. This dissertation breaks new ground on the effects of mobilization messages and contributes to a clearer picture of those effects

Skylab 4 visual observations project report

The Skylab 4 Visual Observations Project was undertaken to determine the ways in which man can contribute to future earth-orbital observational programs. The premission training consisted of 17 hours of lectures by scientists representing 16 disciplines and provided the crewmen information on observational and photographic procedures and the scientific significance of this information. During the Skylab 4 mission, more than 850 observations and 2000 photographs with the 70-millimeter Hasselblad and 35-millimeter Nikon cameras were obtained for many investigative areas. Preliminary results of the project indicate that man can obtain new and unique information to support satellite earth-survey programs because of his inherent capability to make selective observations, to integrate the information, and to record the data by describing and photographing the observational sites

Radio Astronomy

Contains reports on four research projects.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NsG-419

Radio Astronomy

Contains reports on four research projects.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NsG-240-62)National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NsG-419)Lincoln Laboratory (Purchase Order DDL BB-107)U. S. Air Force (Contract AF 19(628)-500)Office of Naval Research (Contract Nonr 3963(02

Mammal predator and prey species richness are strongly linked at macroscales

Predator-prey interactions play an important role for species composition and community dynamics at local scales, but their importance in shaping large-scale gradients of species richness remains unexplored. Here, we use global range maps, structural equation models (SEM), and comprehensive databases of dietary preferences and body masses of all terrestrial, non-volant mammals worldwide, to test whether (1) prey bottom-up or predator top-down relationships are important drivers of broad-scale species richness gradients once the environment and human influence have been accounted for, (2) predator-prey richness associations vary among biogeographic regions, and (3) body size influences large-scale covariation between predators and prey. SEMs including only productivity, climate, and human factors explained a high proportion of variance in prey richness (R2 = 0.56) but considerably less in predator richness (R2 = 0.13). Adding predator-to-prey or prey-topredator paths strongly increased the explained variance in both cases (prey R2 = 0.79, predator R2 = 0.57), suggesting that predator-prey interactions play an important role in driving global diversity gradients. Prey bottom-up effects prevailed over productivity, climate, and human influence to explain predator richness, whereas productivity and climate were more important than predator top-down effects for explaining prey richness, although predator top-down effects were still significant. Global predator-prey associations were not reproduced in all regions, indicating that distinct paleoclimate and evolutionary histories (Africa and Australia) may alter species interactions across trophic levels. Stronger crosstrophic- level associations were recorded within categories of similar body size (e.g., large prey to large predators) than between them (e.g., large prey to small predators), suggesting that mass-related energetic and physiological constraints influence broad-scale richness links, especially for large-bodied mammals. Overall, our results support the idea that trophic interactions can be important drivers of large-scale species richness gradients in combination with environmental effects. © 2013 by the Ecological Society of America

The effects of pediatric obesity on dynamic joint malalignment during gait

Background: There is a greater prevalence of lower extremity malalignment in obese children during static posture; however, there has been less examination of dynamic joint function in this cohort. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine kinematic differences that exist between obese and non-obese children that would support previously reported static joint malalignment. Methods: Forty children were classified as obese (n=20) or non-obese (n=20). Lower extremity joint kinematics were collected during five walking trials at a self-selected pace. Peak joint displacement and amount of joint motion throughout the gait cycle (calculated as the integrated displacement curve) were analyzed for group differences. Findings: Non-obese children had greater peak knee and hip extension during gait; however, there were no group differences in the integrated sagittal displacement curve. Obese children had greater peak angular displacement and integrals of angular displacement for peak hip adduction, hip internal rotation, and foot abduction (toe-out) than non-obese children. Obese children also had greater peak knee external rotation than non-obese children. Interpretation: Non-obese children showed greater range of motion in the sagittal plane, particularly at the hip and knee. Frontal and transverse plane differences suggest that obese children function in a more genu valgum position than non-obese children. Staticmeasures of genu valgum have been previously associated with pediatric obesity; the findings indicate that there are also dynamic implications of said malalignment in obese children. Genu valgum presents increased risk of osteoarthritis for obese children and should be considered when prescribing weight bearing exercise to this cohort

Radio Astronomy

Contains reports on five research projects.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NsG-419)Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DA36-039-AMC-03200(E)

Fluorescence excitation spectrum, lifetimes and photoisomerization of jet-cooled conformers of 1,1 '- bi(benzocyclobutylidene)

First measurements of fluorescence excitation spectra of the recently synthesized rigid stilbene analogue 1,1'- bi(benzocyclobutylidene) in a supersonic jet expansion show that, in contrast to the parent compound, both the trans- and the cis-conformer fluoresce under these conditions. The excitation energy dependence of fluorescence lifetimes indicates the onset of an efficient non-radiative decay channel above energy thresholds of 1340 cm(-1) and 990 cm(-1) for the trans- and cis-form, respectively, which is assigned to photoisomerization in the singlet state. From an RRKM analysis of the microcanonical rate coefficients an estimate of the high pressure limit of the thermal photoisomerization rate coefficient is obtained and compared with photoisomerization rate coefficients measured in low viscosity solution and in thermal vapor. There are strong indications that for this compound there are no dynamic or static solvent induced effects that lead to an anomalous acceleration of the reaction in solution

Accelerated and interpretable oblique random survival forests

The oblique random survival forest (RSF) is an ensemble supervised learning method for right-censored outcomes. Trees in the oblique RSF are grown using linear combinations of predictors to create branches, whereas in the standard RSF, a single predictor is used. Oblique RSF ensembles often have higher prediction accuracy than standard RSF ensembles. However, assessing all possible linear combinations of predictors induces significant computational overhead that limits applications to large-scale data sets. In addition, few methods have been developed for interpretation of oblique RSF ensembles, and they remain more difficult to interpret compared to their axis-based counterparts. We introduce a method to increase computational efficiency of the oblique RSF and a method to estimate importance of individual predictor variables with the oblique RSF. Our strategy to reduce computational overhead makes use of Newton-Raphson scoring, a classical optimization technique that we apply to the Cox partial likelihood function within each non-leaf node of decision trees. We estimate the importance of individual predictors for the oblique RSF by negating each coefficient used for the given predictor in linear combinations, and then computing the reduction in out-of-bag accuracy. In general benchmarking experiments, we find that our implementation of the oblique RSF is approximately 450 times faster with equivalent discrimination and superior Brier score compared to existing software for oblique RSFs. We find in simulation studies that 'negation importance' discriminates between relevant and irrelevant predictors more reliably than permutation importance, Shapley additive explanations, and a previously introduced technique to measure variable importance with oblique RSFs based on analysis of variance. Methods introduced in the current study are available in the aorsf R package.Comment: 40 pages, 6 figure