The study of mobilization has presented scholars with an interesting puzzle as we attempt to identify who is responsive to mobilization messages. The framing of the debate by Kenneth M. Goldstein and Matthew Holleque (2010) pits competing theoretical arguments against one another without a satisfying conclusion. Some argue it is the least informed segments of the population who will be responsive (e.g., Rosenstone and Hansen 1993), while others posit it is those with high levels of political information and past involvement (e.g., Hillygus 2005). In this dissertation I present a third explanation that may provide a better framework for studying the debate. Applying John Zaller’s Receive-Accept-Sample (RAS) model to the study of mobilization, I find not only do individuals with moderate levels of past voting behavior respond to mobilization messages, but so do those with high and low levels. The key to the RAS model is exposure to the message. Thus understanding who is most likely to receive a mobilization message is central to this project.
I conducted field experiments during a magisterial judicial election in a major U.S. city to collect my data. The purpose of those experiments was to capture the effects of mobilization messages on an individual’s probability of voting on Election Day. My results indicate including individuals who would normally not receive mobilization messages (i.e., those who do not have a history of voting) introduce selection bias. Once I control for that bias, I find not only are individuals with moderate levels of past voting behavior responsive, but so are those with high and low levels of past turnout. Receiving a get-out-the-vote door hanger two days prior to an election increases the probability of voting by 3.76% for moderate voters, 3.82% for frequent voters, and 2.88% for infrequent voters.
The effects of mobilization messages are not limited to turnout. Perhaps more important than turnout, I found that a candidate who conducts a last minute GOTV drive can increase their vote share by as much as 25%. This dissertation breaks new ground on the effects of mobilization messages and contributes to a clearer picture of those effects
