The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast

Can an ensemble climate simulation be used to separate climate change signals from natural variability?

The contribution of natural processes to climate change is explored using a 100-member ensemble climate simulation for the period 1850-2005. The ensemble simulation is based on the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology climate model, ECHAM6, where all members have been exposed to the identically same radiative forcing. The range of global mean surface temperature warming over the 1850-2005 period, based on all members, is 0.65-1.10°C. The distribution of the global mean surface temperature about the ensemble mean has a distinct Gaussian distribution with an ensemble standard deviation (StD) of ~0.14°C which slowly decreases in time. Regionally, the largest decrease in the ensemble StD occurs in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Comparing the temporal StD with that from the observed HadCRUT4 surface temperature data indicates that the majority of the ensemble members have a larger temporal StD than the observations suggesting that the model simulations might overestimate the variance. This is supported by pronounced model responses to major volcanic eruptions that appear stronger in terms of the surface temperature response than in the observations. There are clear random 20-year linear trends in global mean surface temperature anomalies as well as significant regional 50-year linear trends. Even with an ensemble mean warming trend, typical of the early 21st century, a global hiatus in temperature of 20 years duration is possible to occur by chance. The results support the view that observed decadal and multi-decadal anomalies in the 20th century were significantly influenced by internal processes of the climate system. This is particularly the case for the observed global warming trend of 1910-1940 and the global cooling trend of 1940-1970. Global mean precipitation hardly increases with time in the ensemble simulations, but in agreement with theory regional changes occur, with increasing precipitation in polar regions and in some tropical areas. In the subtropics there are reductions in precipitation. Long-lasting regional anomalies of significant amplitudes occur by chance in the ensemble integration

Large-Scale Surface Mass Balance of Ice Sheets from a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979-2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centurie

Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding

Recent extreme precipitation events have caused widespread flooding to the UK. The prediction of the intensity of such events in a warmer climate is important for adaption strategies against future events. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution models to predict these events. Using a high-resolution GCM it is shown that extreme precipitation events are predicted to become more frequent under the IPCC A1B warming scenario. It is also shown that current forecast models have difficulty in predicting the location, timing and intensity of small scale precipitation in areas with significant orography

Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

Observed near-surface temperature trends during the period 1979–2014 show large differences between land and ocean, with positive values over land (0.25–0.27 °C/decade) that are significantly larger than over the ocean (0.06–0.12 °C/decade). Temperature trends in the mid-troposphere of 0.08-0.11 °C/decade, on the other hand, are similar for both land and ocean and agree closely with the ocean surface temperature trend. The lapse rate is consequently systematically larger over land than over the ocean and also shows a positive trend in most land areas. This is puzzling as a response to external warming, such as from increasing greenhouse gases, is broadly the same throughout the troposphere. The reduced tropospheric warming trend over land suggests a weaker vertical temperature coupling indicating that some of the processes in the planetary boundary layer such as inversions have a limited influence on the temperature of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, the temperature of the free atmosphere is influenced by advection of colder tropospheric air from the oceans. It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. We also conclude that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim can be used to obtain consistent temperature trends through the depth of the atmosphere, as they are consistent both with near-surface temperature trends and atmospheric temperature trends obtained from microwave sounding sensors

How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?

Tropical Cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPIOM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 year periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-year periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50ms-1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in 2 the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapor provide more energy for the storms so that when favorable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 years at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of tropical cyclones were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones

Polarization Effects in Superdeformed Nuclei

A detailed theoretical investigation of polarization effects in superdeformed nuclei is performed. In the pure harmonic oscillator potential it is shown that when one particle (or hole) with the mass single-particle quadrupole moment q_{nu} is added to a superdeformed core, the change of the electric quadrupole moment can be parameterized as q_{eff}=e(bq_{nu}+a), and analytical expressions are derived for the two parameters, $a$ and $b$. Simple numerical expressions for q_{eff}(q_\nu}) are obtained in the more realistic modified oscillator model. It is also shown that quadrupole moments of nuclei with up to 10 particles removed from the superdeformed core of 152Dy can be well described by simply subtracting effective quadrupole moments of the active single-particle states from the quadrupole moment of the core. Tools are given for estimating the quadrupole moment for possible configurations in the superdeformed A 150-region.Comment: 28 pages including 9 figure

Protein synthesis of the pro-inflammatory S100A8/A9 complex in plasmacytoid dendritic cells and cell surface S100A8/A9 on leukocyte subpopulations in systemic lupus erythematosus

Introduction: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with chronic or episodic inflammation in many different organ systems, activation of leukocytes and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines. The heterodimer of the cytosolic calcium-binding proteins S100A8 and S100A9 (S100A8/A9) is secreted by activated polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs) and monocytes and serves as a serum marker for several inflammatory diseases. Furthermore, S100A8 and S100A9 have many pro-inflammatory properties such as binding to Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4). In this study we investigated if aberrant cell surface S100A8/A9 could be seen in SLE and if plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) could synthesize S100A8/A9. Methods: Flow cytometry, confocal microscopy and real-time PCR of flow cytometry-sorted cells were used to measure cell surface S100A8/A9, intracellular S100A8/A9 and mRNA levels of S100A8 and S100A9, respectively. Results: Cell surface S100A8/A9 was detected on all leukocyte subpopulations investigated except for T cells. By confocal microscopy, real-time PCR and stimulation assays, we could demonstrate that pDCs, monocytes and PMNs could synthesize S100A8/A9. Furthermore, pDC cell surface S100A8/A9 was higher in patients with active disease as compared to patients with inactive disease. Upon immune complex stimulation, pDCs up-regulated the cell surface S100A8/A9. SLE patients had also increased serum levels of S100A8/A9. Conclusions: Patients with SLE had increased cell surface S100A8/A9, which could be important in amplification and persistence of inflammation. Importantly, pDCs were able to synthesize S100A8/A9 proteins and up-regulate the cell surface expression upon immune complex-stimulation. Thus, S100A8/A9 may be a potent target for treatment of inflammatory diseases such as SLE