Robust decision making for a climate-resilient development of the agricultural sector in Nigeria.

Adaptation options that work reasonably well across an entire range of potential outcomes are shown to be preferable in a context of deep uncertainty. This is because robust practices that are expected to perform satisfactorily across the full range of possible future conditions, are preferable to those that are the best ones, but just in one specific scenario. Thus, using a Robust Decision Making Approach in Nigerian agriculture may increase resilience to climate change. To illustrate, the expansion of irrigation might be considered as a complementary strategy to conservation techniques and a shift in sowing/planting dates to enhance resilience of agriculture. However, given large capital expenditures, irrigation must consider climate trends and variability. Using historical climate records is insufficient to size capacity and can result in "regrets" when the investment is undersized/oversized, if the climate turns out to be drier/wetter than expected. Rather utilizing multiple climate outcomes to make decisions will decrease "regrets." This chapter summarizes the main results from a study titled "Toward climate-resilient development in Nigeria" funded by the Word Bank (See Cervigni et al. 2013)

Abdominal wall paresis as a complication of laparoscopic surgery

Purpose: Abdominal wall nerve injury as a result of trocar placement for laparoscopic surgery is rare. We intend to discuss causes of abdominal wall paresis as well as relevant anatomy. Methods: A review of the nerve supply of the abdominal wall is illustrated with a rare case of a patient presenting with paresis of the internal oblique muscle due to a trocar lesion of the right iliohypogastric nerve after laparoscopic appendectomy. Results: Trocar placement in the upper lateral abdomen can damage the subcostal nerve (Th12), caudal intercostal nerves (Th7-11) and ventral rami of the thoracic nerves (Th7-12). Trocar placement in the lower abdomen can damage the ilioinguinal (L1 or L2) and iliohypogastric nerves (Th12-L1). Pareses of abdominal muscles due to trocar placement are rare due to overlap in innervation and relatively small sizes of trocar incisions. Conclusion: Knowledge of the anatomy of the abdominal wall is mandatory in order to avoid the injury of important structures during trocar placement

Opening out and closing down: The treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm

© 2019, The Author(s). Since the 1960s, development of the transport system has been framed by the notion of forecasting future demand. Yet the past decade or more appears to signal some significant changes to the role of travel in society which are having a material impact on how much people travel (and may travel in the future). Coupled with the potential for major technological changes and a range of climate adaptation scenarios, the future of mobility presents today’s decision making on transport strategy and investment with a broader set of uncertainties than has previously been considered. This paper examines current mainstream practice for incorporating uncertainty into decision-making, through an illustrative case study of the highly codified approaches of the Department for Transport in England. It deconstructs the issue by first focussing on different ways in which there is an opening out or acceptance of new uncertainties and how this creates a (wider) set of potential futures. It then turns to consider how this set of futures is used, or not, in decision-making, i.e. the process of closing down uncertainty to arrive at or at least inform a decision. We demonstrate that, because the range of uncertainties has broadened in scope and scale, the traditional technocratic approach of closing down decisions through sensitivity testing is at odds with the greater breadth now being called for at the opening out stage. We conclude that transport decision-making would benefit from a rebalancing of technical depth with analytical breadth. The paper outlines a plausible new approach to opening out and closing down that is starting to be applied in practice. This approach must be accompanied by an opening up of the processes by which technical advice for decisions are reached and how uncertainties are understood and negotiated

High stakes decisions under uncertainty: dams, development and climate change in the Rufiji river basin

The need to stress test designs and decisions about major infrastructure under climate change conditions is increasingly being recognised. This chapter explores new ways to understand and—if possible—reduce the uncertainty in climate information to enable its use in assessing decisions that have consequences across the water, energy, food and environment sectors. It outlines an approach, applied in the Rufiji River Basin in Tanzania, that addresses uncertainty in climate model projections by weighting them according to different skill metrics; how well the models simulate important climate features. The impact of different weighting approaches on two river basin performance indicators (hydropower generation and environmental flows) is assessed, providing an indication of the reliability of infrastructure investments, including a major proposed dam under different climate model projections. The chapter ends with a reflection on the operational context for applying such approaches and some of the steps taken to address challenges and to engage stakeholders

Jury Systems Around the World

Lay citizens participate as decision makers in the legal systems of many countries. This review describes the different approaches that countries employ to integrate lay decision makers, contrasting in particular the use of juries composed of all citizens with mixed decision-making bodies of lay and law-trained judges. The review discusses research on the benefits and drawbacks of lay legal decision making as well as international support for the use of ordinary citizens as legal decision makers, with an eye to explaining a recent increase in new jury systems around the world. The review calls for more comparative work on diverse approaches to lay participation, examining how different methods of including lay participation promote or detract from fact finding, legal consciousness, civic engagement, and citizen power

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change

Relative K-stability for Kähler manifolds

We study the existence of extremal Kähler metrics on Kähler manifolds. After introducing a notion of relative K-stability for Kahler manifolds, we prove that Kähler manifolds admitting extremal Kähler metrics are relatively K-stable. Along the way, we prove a general Lp lower bound on the Calabi functional involving test configurations and their associated numerical invariants, answering a question of Donaldson. When the Kähler manifold is projective, our definition of relative K-stability is stronger than the usual definition given by Székelyhidi. In particular our result strengthens the known results in the projective case (even for constant scalar curvature Kähler metrics), and rules out a well known counterexample to the "naïve" version of the Yau-Tian-Donaldson conjecture in this setting