"Securitization/De-Securitization" and Attitudes in Azerbaijan in Reaction to the Karabagh Conflict

The article explores the securitization/de-securitization processes and attitudes towards the conflict in Azerbaijan in the periods before, during, and after the 2020 conflict in Karabagh. An earlier study (Alieva and Aslanov, 2018) revealed that even under conditions of strict autocratic rule, there has been a diversification of societal attitudes depending on sets of views and ideologies - from conservative and (pre)modern to liberal and post-modern - during the "status quo" period, demonstrating de-securitization potential from civil society actors (NGOs, political opposition, independent intellectuals). The recent flare-up in Karabagh shows, however, that neither favorable attitudes towards peace among the Azerbaijani elite, nor democratic changes in Armenia automatically immunize society against military/political mobilization and securitization if they are not indicators of deeper human and political emancipation and if the grievances, such as human rights violations, ethnic cleansing, violation of international borders, and/or war crimes, are not legally redressed internationally and/or domestically. In turn, the unsustainable nature of the attempts at "top-down" de-securitization, or that from formal authority, is affected by the fact that it does not "unmake securitization's nondemocratic, exceptional and exclusionary logic" (Aradau, 2004), but rather replicates it. The official "speech acts" reflect the utilization of the external threat against domestic opponents for purposes of blame avoidance and, while calling for peaceful reconstruction, hint at the possibility of future war. Yet, even under conditions of strict autocracy, the internet and social networks provide for the silenced voices and for the multiplicity of agents challenging the monopoly on (de-)securitization of the formal authority, reinforced by the infelicities (amounting to flaws) of the post-war governance

The Resource Curse and Rentier States in the Caspian Region : A Need for Context Analysis

Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region’s resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.Obwohl der Region am Kaspischen Meer im Zuge von Energiediskursen große Aufmerksamkeit zuteil wird, stellen die innerstaatlichen Folgen der Ressourcenproduktion in der Region ein bislang vernachlässigtes Forschungsfeld dar. Ein systematischer Überblick über die jüngsten Forschungstrends zu wirtschaftlichen und politischen Kausalzusammenhängen des Ressourcenfluchs und zu Rentierstaaten offenbart die Notwendigkeit von Kontextanalysen. Hierauf Bezug nehmend, analysiert der Aufsatz sowohl die Mängel als auch viel versprechende Ansätze in der betreffenden Literatur zur Region am Kaspischen Meer. Der Aufsatz stellt letztendlich einen neuen Ansatz vor, der Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten in den Kontextbedingungen erfasst, um zu erforschen, wie diese die gegenwärtigen post-sowjetischen Rentierstaaten in der Region am Kaspischen Meer tatsächlich prägen

The EU must actively engage with Azerbaijan and hold it to its commitments: otherwise it risks being a tacit supporter of an autocracy

The EU is now trying to put democracy back into the heart of its foreign policy. Yet, the EU and its member states seem to have greater concern for their own energy interests than engaging with Azerbaijan’s near-autocratic regime. Jana Kobzova, Leila Alieva and Dan Kennedy call for the EU to pursue a “hug and hold” strategy with Azerbaijan –close engagement, complemented by holding the regime to its commitments to reform

Reshaping Eurasia: Foreign Policy Strategies and Leadership Assets in Post-Soviet South Caucasus

This paper discusses the survival of the post-Soviet Caucasus states and the post-Soviet reshaping of Eurasia under complex regional and domestic conditions. It also analyzes which particular institutions influence the success or failure of foreign policy strategies. It attempts to clarify why foreign policies are so dependent on the personal capabilities of leaders rather than on structural factors, and how former communist leaders have succeeded in breaking their countries' global isolation. It concludes by analyzing current challenges that the leaders of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan face

The EU and Azerbaijan : beyond oil

Jana Kobzova; Leila Aliev

Local Dimensions of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

This issue of the Caucasus Analytical Digest deals with Local Dimensions of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Firstly, Leila Alieva explores the securitization/de-securitization processes and attitudes towards the conflict in Azerbaijan in the periods before, during, and after the 2020 conflict in Karabagh; secondly, Tamar Shirinian discusses the affective connections between the two spectres of soldiers who are missing or who have died in action and the old political economic elite who now threaten to regain power, and the political implications of national trauma on Armenia’s post-war futures; thirdly, John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal, and Kristin Bakke analyse the somewhat contradictory results of a February 2020 survey of inhabitants of Karabakh concerning the questions of territory and peace.Diese Ausgabe des Caucasus Analytical Digest befasst sich mit lokalen Dimensionen des Berg-Karabach-Konflikts. Erstens untersucht Leila Alieva die Ver- und Entsicherheitlichungsprozesse und die Einstellungen zum Konflikt in Aserbaidschan in den Zeiträumen vor, während und nach dem Konflikt in Karabach 2020; zweitens diskutiert Tamar Shirinian die affektiven Verbindungen zwischen den beiden Gespenstern der vermissten oder gefallenen Soldaten und der alten politisch-ökonomischen Elite, die nun droht, die Macht zurückzugewinnen, und die politischen Auswirkungen nationaler Traumata auf die Nachkriegszukunft Armeniens; drittens analysieren John O’Loughlin, Gerard Toal und Kristin Bakke die etwas widersprüchlichen Ergebnisse einer im Februar 2020 durchgeführten Umfrage unter Einwohnern Karabachs zu Fragen von Territorium und Frieden.ISSN:1867-932

Democracy’s Plight in the European Neighbourhood: Struggling transitions and proliferating dynasties. CEPS Paperbacks. October 2009

Is international democracy promotion in the European neighbourhood running out of steam, after the disappointing results from the ‘colour revolutions’ in Georgia and Ukraine of 2004-2005? What is the changing impact of factors such as corrupt state capture, energy resources, rent-seeking behaviour, the financial crisis and the perceived threat of radical Islam on democratisation in the region? Research into these questions, among others, and what certain analysts describe as a ‘democracy backlash’ was conducted in three groups of states: countries in or near the EU; former Soviet Union states and three Arab states of the Southern Mediterranean. The results show a parting of the ways between on the one hand the EU’s European neighbours (other than Russia), which are seen to be ‘struggling transitions’ aiming at the European model of democracy, but with serious failings still to be overcome; and on the other hand Russia and the states of Central Asia and North Africa where there is no tendency towards democracy but rather a contrary trend of ‘proliferating dynasties’. This new paperback: Democracy’s Plight is the result of that research, edited by Michael Emerson of CEPS and Richard Youngs of FRIDE, Madrid