The 2008 evaluation of SYKE

Riippumaton kuusijäseninen kansainvälinen asiantuntijapaneeli arvioi SYKEn tutkimustoimintaa ja asiantuntija-palveluita marraskuussa 2008. Työssään se hyödynsi saamiansa taustamateriaaleja ja tekemiänsä kysely- ja haastatteluaineistoja. Arviointipaneelin mukaan SYKE on aktiivinen ja elinvoimainen laitos. SYKEn menetelmälliset vahvuudet ovat laitoksen kehittämissä tieteellisissä lähestymistavoissa ja työkaluissa, jotka pohjautuvat sen laajoihin ympäristötietovarantoihin. Panelistien keskeisimmät suositukset liittyvät tutkimuksen ja asiantuntijapalveluiden organisatoriseen jakoon, operatiivisiin 24/7-palveluihin, neuvottelukunnan rooliin sekä SYKEn rooliin ja asemaan ympäristönsuojelun kentässä, erityisesti ympäristöpolitiikan tukemisessa. Panelistien näkemysten mukaan SYKEllä on hyvät mahdollisuudet vahvistaa ennakoivaa roolia monessa: arvioida ympäristöpolitiikan toteutumista, kehittää kestävän kehityksen strategioita ja skenaarioita sekä tuottaa tietoa eri politiikkavaihtoehtojen ympäristövaikutuksista. Panelistit suosittelevat tutkimuksen ja politiikan välisen yhteyden vahvistamista luomalla osallistumiseen ja kokonaisvaltaiseen arviointiin perustuva lähestymistapa, jossa hyödynnetään SYKEn ympäristöosaamista ja sidosryhmien tarpeita. SYKEn ympäristöön liittyvät paikkatiedot ja sosio-ekonomiset tiedot mahdollistavat yhdessä innovatiivisten yhdennettyjen arviointien tekemisen. Panelistien näkemyksen mukaan tavoite lisätä SYKEn yhteistyötä kansallisten ja kansainvälisten yliopistojen kanssa, ympäristö ja luonnonvarat -konsortion perustaminen sekä osallistuminen strategisen huippuosaamisen keskittymien ohjelmiin ovat kaikki tärkeitä SYKEn kehittymisen kannalta

Infrarenal Aortic Coarctation as a Cause for Hypertension

In the Russian Arctic, nature protection is important to preserve valuable ecosystems and indigenous lifestyles against the rapidly expanding oil and gas activities. In this regard, zoning legitimately balances influential stakeholders versus weak ones, and can leverage stakeholders to exercise their rights. This study explores how various stakeholders employ zoning in the Numto Nature Park in the oil-rich Russian Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra to advance their interests and how they use scientific information to achieve this. Through stakeholder interviews, analysis of electronic media and literature review, we conclude that a participatory and science-based zoning exercise stimulates the necessary deliberation. However, legal ambiguity, deficient law implementation and informal practices limit the zoning's potential to balance stakeholders’ interests. All the stakeholders calculatingly used scientific information to legitimize their own ambitions, activities and claims. Hence, zoning and the underlying information claims should be interpreted as both a resource and a battleground in nature-use conflicts

Transdisciplinary global change research: the co-creation of knowledge for sustainability

The challenges formulated within the Future Earth framework set the orientation for research programmes in sustainability science for the next ten years. Scientific disciplines from natural and social science will collaborate both among each other and with relevant societal groups in order to define the important integrated research questions, and to explore together successful pathways towards global sustainability. Such collaboration will be based on transdisciplinarity and integrated research concepts. This paper analyses the relationship between scientific integration and transdisciplinarity, discusses the dimensions of integration of different knowledge and proposes a platform and a paradigm for research towards global sustainability that will be both designed and conducted in partnership between science and society. We argue that integration is an iterative process that involves reflection among all stakeholders. It consists of three stages: co-design, co-production and co-dissemination

Limits to management adaptation for the Indus’ irrigated agriculture

Future irrigated agriculture will be strongly affected by climate change and agricultural management. However, the extent that agricultural management adaptation can counterbalance negative climate-change impacts and achieve sustainable agricultural production remains poorly quantified. Such quantification is especially important for the Indus basin, as irrigated agriculture is essential for its food security and will be highly affected by increasing temperatures and changing water availability. Our study quantified these effects for several climate-change mitigation scenarios and agricultural management-adaptation strategies using the state-of-the-art VIC-WOFOST hydrology–crop model. Our results show that by the 2030s, management adaptation through improved nutrient availability and constrained irrigation will be sufficient to achieve sustainable and increased agricultural production. However, by the 2080s agricultural productivity will strongly depend on worldwide climate-change mitigation efforts. Especially under limited climate-change mitigation, management adaptation will be insufficient to compensate the severe production losses due to heat stress. Our study clearly indicates the limits to management adaptation in the Indus basin, and only further adaptation or strong worldwide climate-change mitigation will secure the Indus’ food productivity

Climate-change impacts and adaptation for Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable counties in terms climate-change impacts on its agricultural productivity. Agriculture is not only the largest sector in Pakistan’s economy, the food security of its over 220 million inhabitants also strongly depends on its production. As Pakistan’s arid croplands are extensively irrigated, agricultural productivity is affected by increasing temperatures (projected to increase up to 6°C between 2000 and 2100 under a limited climate-change mitigation scenario), changes in water availability (i.e. river streamflow and groundwater resources) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]; affecting both crop productivity and water use efficiency). Here we present the impacts of climate change on Pakistan’s primary cereal crops: wheat and rice. Impacts are quantified by combining several climate-change scenarios with a process-based coupled hydrological-crop model, VIC-WOFOST. VIC-WOFOST comprehensively estimates changes in crop growth, water resources and their interactions under climate change. Moreover, the role of elevated [CO2] on agricultural productivity and sustainable water use is specifically assessed. We then explore the possibilities and limitations of agricultural adaptation to enable sustainable food security for Pakistan under various climate-change and population growth scenarios. Our results show that climate-change will severely affect Pakistan’s agriculture, especially due increased temperatures and crop heat stress. However, climate-change adaptation can potentially mitigate some of these effects, especially for wheat production. Moreover, with sufficient agricultural adaptation, climate-change can even be beneficial for Pakistan’s agriculture due to the benefits of elevated [CO2]. While our study is focussed on Pakistan, it indicates pathways for sustainable food production under climate change that may also be important for other regions that strongly depend on irrigated agriculture

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

The complex interactions of drivers represented in scenarios and climate change impacts across scales have led to the development of multiscale scenarios. Since the recent development of global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), which have started being downscaled to lower scales, the potential of scenarios to be relevant for decision making and facilitate appreciation and inclusion of different perspectives has been increasing, compared with a single-scale global scenario set. However, in practice, quantitative downscaling of global scenarios results in narratives that are compressed from the global level to fit the local context to enhance consistency between global and local scales. We brought forward the concept of scenario archetypes to analyze multiscale SSP scenario narratives and highlight important diverging assumptions within the same archetype. Our methodology applied scenario archetypes both as typologies, to allocate specific cases of scenarios into existing scenario archetypes, and building blocks, conceptualized with worldviews from cultural theory. Although global SSPs generally match existing archetypes and tend to be well defined, the socially unequal SSPs at subglobal scales are more nuanced, and dominant worldviews are much less straighforward to interpret than in global scenarios. The closest match was the great transition–sustainability (SSP1) archetype, whereas the most divergent was the market forces–fossil fuel development (SSP5) archetype. Overall, our results highlight the need to improve uptake of bottom-up approaches in global scenarios to improve appreciation of different perspectives as sought after in multiscale scenarios

Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to global environmental change: challenges and pathways for an action-oriented research agenda for middle-income and low-income countries

The socio-economic impacts of environmental stresses associated with global environmental change depend to a large extent on how societies organize themselves. Research on climate-related societal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation is currently underdeveloped, prompting international global environmental change research institutions to hold a series of meetings in 2009–2010. One of these aimed at identifying needs in middle-income and low-income countries (MLICs), and found that effective responses to the challenge of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptation will drive research and policy into challenging and innovative areas of research. Producing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation knowledge requires greater inclusion of MLIC researchers and a rethinking of the research structures, institutions and paradigms that have dominated global change research to date. Scientific literature discussed in this article suggests that governance issues need to become central objects of empirically based, detailed, multiscalar and action-oriented research, and that this needs to address the politically sensitive and seemingly intractable issue of reducing global inequities in power and resource distribution. The scientific literature suggests that without effective action in those directions, current trends toward greater inequality will continue to both reflect and intensify global environmental threats and their impacts

How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they require many efforts to decipher the numerous interactions and feedback loops. Given the breadth of questions to be tackled when dealing with coral reefs, the best practice approach uses multiple model types and thus benefits from the strength of different models types