Methodological advances

The study of population dynamics has long depended on methodological progress. Among many striking examples, continuous time models for populations structured in age (Sharpe & Lotka, 1911) were made possible by progress in the mathematics of integral equations. Therefore the relationship between population ecology and mathematical and statistical modelling in the broad sense raises a challenge in interdisciplinary research. After the impetus given in particular by Seber (1982), the regular biennial EURING conferences became a major vehicle to achieve this goal. It is thus not surprising that EURING 2003 included a session entitled "Methodological advances". Even if at risk of heterogeneity in the topics covered and of overlap with other sessions, such a session was a logical way of ensuring that recent and exciting new developments were made available for discussion, further development by biometricians and use by population biologists. The topics covered included several to which full sessions were devoted at EURING 2000 (Anderson, 2001) such as: individual covariates, Bayesian methods, and multi–state models. Some other topics (heterogeneity models, exploited populations and integrated modelling) had been addressed by contributed talks or posters. Their presence among "methodological advances", as well as in other sessions of EURING 2003, was intended as a response to their rapid development and potential relevance to biological questions. We briefly review all talks here, including those not published in the proceedings. In the plenary talk, Pradel et al. (in prep.) developed GOF tests for multi–state models. Until recently, the only goodness–of–fit procedures for multistate models were ad hoc, and non optimal, involving use of standard tests for single state models (Lebreton & Pradel, 2002). Pradel et al. (2003) proposed a general approach based in particular on mixtures of multinomial distributions. Pradel et al. (in prep.) showed how to decompose tests into interpretable components as proposed by Pollock et al. (1985) for the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model Pledger et al. (in prep.) went on in their thorough exploration of models with heterogeneity of capture (Pledger & Schwarz, 2002; Pledger et al., 2003), by considering the use of finite mixture models for the robust design. Given the level of details in demographic traits presently addressed by capture–recapture, the problem of heterogeneity, once apparently settled by fairly reassuring messages (Carothers, 1973, 1979), is becoming again a central issue, with potential disastrous consequences if improperly handled. Heterogeneity models, that bear also a relationship to "multi–event models" (Pradel, in press), will thus certainly be increasingly useful. Pollock, Norris, and Pledger (in prep.) reviewed the capture–recapture models as applied to community data (Boulinier et al., 1998) and developed general removal and capture–recapture models when multiple species are sampled to estimate community parameters. Because of unequal delectability between species, these approaches bear a clear relationship to heterogeneity models, which will be more and more a reference for comparative studies of communities and "macroecology" (Gaston & Blackburn, 2000). Bonner & Schwarz (2004) proposed a capture–recapture model with continuous individual covariates changing over time more fully developed in Bonner & Schwarz (2004). The difficulty here is to set up a sub–model predicting the covariate value when an individual is not captured. While multi–state models permit an ad hoc treatment by categorizing the covariate, Bonner and Schwarz bring a sound answer by considering the covariate obeys a Markov chain with continuous state–space. Otis & White (2004) presented a thorough, simulation–based, investigation of two approaches used to test the contrasting hypotheses of additive and compensatory hunting mortality based on band recovery data. The two approaches are the usual ultra–structural model and a new one based on a random effects model. This paper can be viewed as part of a revival of studies of the dynamics of exploited populations, in the broad sense, including the study of man–induced mortality in the framework of conservation biology (Lebreton, in press). This revival is a direct consequence of the increasing impact of man on the biosphere and of continuing methodological progress (Ferson & Burgman, 2000). The use of random effects models (see also Schaub & Lebreton, 2004) directly builds upon the seminal work by Anderson and Burnham (1976). Stauffer presented a Winbugs implementation of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model that complemented other presentations in the conference and the short course. Finally, Morgan, Besbeas, Thomas, Buckland, Harwood, Duck and Pomery, proposed a thorough and timely review of integrated modelling, i.e., in our context, of models considering simultaneously capture–recapture demographic information and census information. These methods were covered in other sessions, in relation to Bayesian methodology. Integrated modelling appears indeed to be the logical way of combining all pieces of information arising from integrated monitoring, and as one of the great methodological challenges for our community in the years to come (Besbeas et al., 2002). Methodological progress in population dynamics is apparently still on an upward trajectory and we look forward to many exciting contributions at future EURING conferences

Increasing Needs and Solutions for Non-Baseload Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

Operation at steady full power, i.e. baseload operation, of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is usually considered to be the most efficient use of capital investment. Therefore, design and operation of most existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) are optimised to operate in baseload mode. Recently, there is an increasing need to operate NPPs in non-baseload mode, specifically performing frequency control and load following. These needs are typically due to a large nuclear generating capacity, increasing share of renewable generation, deregulation or evolution of the electricity supply systems and markets. Re-optimization of NPP design and operation for nonbaseload (flexible) mode of operation necessitates operational, economic and financial rearrangements to maintain the capital investment, in addition the adaptation of technical and regulatory changes. This paper discusses the aspects of design or operation of NPPs in flexible mode based on the existing knowledge and experience and it is primarily based on the recent study that was prepared by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Increasing Needs and Solutions for Non-Baseload Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

Operation at steady full power, i.e. baseload operation, of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is usually considered to be the most efficient use of capital investment. Therefore, design and operation of most existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) are optimised to operate in baseload mode. Recently, there is an increasing need to operate NPPs in non-baseload mode, specifically performing frequency control and load following. These needs are typically due to a large nuclear generating capacity, increasing share of renewable generation, deregulation or evolution of the electricity supply systems and markets. Re-optimization of NPP design and operation for nonbaseload (flexible) mode of operation necessitates operational, economic and financial rearrangements to maintain the capital investment, in addition the adaptation of technical and regulatory changes. This paper discusses the aspects of design or operation of NPPs in flexible mode based on the existing knowledge and experience and it is primarily based on the recent study that was prepared by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Cassini: Mission to Saturn and Titan

The Cassini Mission to Saturn and Titan represents an important step into the exploration of the outerplanets. It will expand on the flyby encounters of Pioneer and Voyager and parallel the detailed exploration of the Jupiter system to be accomplished by the Galileo Mission. By continuing the study of the two giant planets and enabling detailed comparisons of their structure and behavior, Cassini will provide a tremendous insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. In addition, by virtue of its focus on the Saturnian satellite Titan, Cassini will return detailed data on an environment whose atmospheric chemistry may resemble that of the primitive Earth. The scientific objectives can be divided into five categories: Titan, Saturn, rings, icy satellites, and magnetospheres. The key area of interest to exobiologists is Titan; the other four scientific categories will be discussed briefly to provide a comprehensive overview of the Cassini Mission

Spectra disentangling applied to the Hyades binary Theta^2 Tau AB: new orbit, orbital parallax and component properties

Theta^2 Tauri is a detached and single-lined interferometric-spectroscopic binary as well as the most massive binary system of the Hyades cluster. The system revolves in an eccentric orbit with a periodicity of 140.7 days. The secondary has a similar temperature but is less evolved and fainter than the primary. It is also rotating more rapidly. Since the composite spectra are heavily blended, the direct extraction of radial velocities over the orbit of component B was hitherto unsuccessful. Using high-resolution spectroscopic data recently obtained with the Elodie (OHP, France) and Hermes (ORM, La Palma, Spain) spectrographs, and applying a spectra disentangling algorithm to three independent data sets including spectra from the Oak Ridge Observatory (USA), we derived an improved spectroscopic orbit and refined the solution by performing a combined astrometric-spectroscopic analysis based on the new spectroscopy and the long-baseline data from the Mark III optical interferometer. As a result, the velocity amplitude of the fainter component is obtained in a direct and objective way. Major progress based on this new determination includes an improved computation of the orbital parallax. Our mass ratio is in good agreement with the older estimates of Peterson et al. (1991, 1993), but the mass of the primary is 15-25% higher than the more recent estimates by Torres et al. (1997) and Armstrong et al. (2006). Due to the strategic position of the components in the turnoff region of the cluster, these new determinations imply stricter constraints for the age and the metallicity of the Hyades cluster. The location of component B can be explained by current evolutionary models, but the location of the more evolved component A is not trivially explained and requires a detailed abundance analysis of its disentangled spectrum.Comment: in press, 13 pages, 10 Postscript figures, 5 tables. Table~4 is available as online material. Keywords: astrometry - techniques: high angular resolution - stars: binaries: visual - stars: binaries: spectroscopic - stars: fundamental parameter

Starspot Jitter in Photometry, Astrometry and Radial Velocity Measurements

Analytical relations are derived for the amplitude of astrometric, photometric and radial velocity perturbations caused by a single rotating spot. The relative power of the star spot jitter is estimated and compared with the available data for $\kappa^1$ Ceti and HD 166435, as well as with numerical simulations for $\kappa^1$ Ceti and the Sun. A Sun-like star inclined at i=90\degr at 10 pc is predicted to have a RMS jitter of 0.087 \uas in its astrometric position along the equator, and 0.38 m s$^{-1}$ in radial velocities. If the presence of spots due to stellar activity is the ultimate limiting factor for planet detection, the sensitivity of SIM Lite to Earth-like planets in habitable zones is about an order of magnitude higher that the sensitivity of prospective ultra-precise radial velocity observations of nearby stars.Comment: accepted in ApJ Letters, Nov. 200

Scientific rationale of a Saturn probe mission

We describe the main scientific goals to be addressed by future in situ exploration of Saturn

Wave and plasma measurements and GPS diagnostics of the main ionospheric trough as a hybrid method used for Space Weather purposes

The region of the main ionospheric trough is a unique region of the ionosphere, where different types of waves and instabilities can be generated. This region of the ionosphere acts like a lens, focusing a variety of indicators from the equator of plasmapause and local ionospheric plasma. This paper reports the results of monitoring the mid-latitude trough structure, dynamics and wave activity. For these purposes, the data gathered by the currently-operating DEMETER satellite and past diagnostics located on IK-19, Apex, and MAGION-3 spacecraft, as well as TEC measurements were used. A global-time varying picture of the ionospheric trough was reconstructed using the sequence of wave spectra registered and plasma measurements in the top-side ionosphere. The authors present the wave activity from ULF frequency band to the HF frequency detected inside the trough region and discuss its properties during geomagnetic disturbances. It is thought that broadband emissions are correlated with low frequency radiation, which is excited by the wave-particle interaction in the equatorial plasmapause and moves to the ionosphere along the geomagnetic field line. In the ionosphere, the suprathermal electrons can interact with these electrostatic waves and excite electron acoustic waves or HF longitudinal plasma waves. <br><br> Furthermore, the electron density trough can provide useful data on the magnetosphere ionosphere dynamics and morphology and, in consequence, can be used for Space Weather purposes

Masses of the components of SB2 binaries observed with Gaia. II. Masses derived from PIONIER interferometric observations for Gaia validation

In anticipation of the Gaia astrometric mission, a sample of spectroscopic binaries is being observed since 2010 with the Sophie spectrograph at the Haute--Provence Observatory. Our aim is to derive the orbital elements of double-lined spectroscopic binaries (SB2s) with an accuracy sufficient to finally obtain the masses of the components with relative errors as small as 1 % when combined with Gaia astrometric measurements. In order to validate the masses derived from Gaia, interferometric observations are obtained for three SB2s in our sample with F-K components: HIP 14157, HIP 20601 and HIP 117186. The masses of the six stellar components are derived. Due to its edge-on orientation, HIP 14157 is probably an eclipsing binary. We note that almost all the derived masses are a few percent larger than the expectations from the standard spectral-type-mass calibration and mass-luminosity relation. Our calculation also leads to accurate parallaxes for the three binaries, and the Hipparcos parallaxes are confirmed.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, accepted by MNRA