Theoretical basis for convective invigoration due to increased aerosol concentration

The potential effects of increased aerosol loading on the development of deep convective clouds and resulting precipitation amounts are studied by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a detailed high-resolution cloud resolving model (CRM) with both detailed bulk and bin microphysics schemes. Both models include a physically-based activation scheme that incorporates a size-resolved aerosol population. We demonstrate that the aerosol-induced effect is controlled by the balance between latent heating and the increase in condensed water aloft, each having opposing effects on buoyancy. It is also shown that under polluted conditions, increases in the CCN number concentration reduce the cumulative precipitation due to the competition between the sedimentation and evaporation/sublimation timescales. The effect of an increase in the IN number concentration on the dynamics of deep convective clouds is small and the resulting decrease in domain-averaged cumulative precipitation is shown not to be statistically significant, but may act to suppress precipitation. It is also shown that even in the presence of a decrease in the domain-averaged cumulative precipitation, an increase in the precipitation variance, or in other words, andincrease in rainfall intensity, may be expected in more polluted environments, especially in moist environments. A significant difference exists between the predictions based on the bin and bulk microphysics schemes of precipitation and the influence of aerosol perturbations on updraft velocity within the convective core. The bulk microphysics scheme shows little change in the latent heating rates due to an increase in the CCN number concentration, while the bin microphysics scheme demonstrates significant increases in the latent heating aloft with increasing CCN number concentration. This suggests that even a detailed two-bulk microphysics scheme, coupled to a detailed activation scheme, may not be sufficient to predict small changes that result from perturbations in aerosol loading

Are simulated aerosol-induced effects on deep convective clouds strongly dependent on saturation adjustment?

Three configurations of a bulk microphysics scheme in conjunction with a detailed bin scheme are implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to specifically address the role of the saturation adjustment assumption (i.e., condensing/evaporating the surplus/deficit water vapor relative to saturation in one time step) on aerosol-induced invigoration of deep convective clouds. The bulk model configurations are designed to treat cloud droplet condensation/evaporation using either saturation adjustment, as employed in most bulk models, or an explicit representation of supersaturation over a time step, as used in bin models. Results demonstrate that the use of saturation adjustment artificially enhances condensation and latent heating at low levels and limits the potential for an increase in aerosol concentration to increase buoyancy at mid to upper levels. This leads to a small weakening of the time- and domain-averaged convective mass flux (~-3%) in polluted compared to clean conditions. In contrast, the bin model and bulk scheme with explicit prediction of supersaturation simulate an increase in latent heating aloft and the convective updraft mass flux is weakly invigorated (~5%). The bin model also produces a large increase in domain-mean cumulative surface precipitation in polluted conditions (~18%), while all of the bulk model configurations simulate little change in precipitation. Finally, it is shown that the cold pool weakens substantially with increased aerosol loading when saturation adjustment is applied, which acts to reduce the low-level convergence and weaken the convective dynamics. With an explicit treatment of supersaturation in the bulk and bin models there is little change in cold pool strength, so that the convective response to polluted conditions is influenced more by changes in latent heating aloft. It is concluded that the use of saturation adjustment can explain differences in the response of cold pool evolution and convective dynamics with aerosol loading simulated by the bulk and bin models, but cannot explain large differences in the response of surface precipitation between these models

A comprehensive numerical study of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in marine stratocumulus

Three-dimensional large-eddy simulations (LES) with detailed bin-resolved microphysics are performed to explore the diurnal variation of marine stratocumulus (MSc) clouds under clean and polluted conditions. The sensitivity of the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions to variation of sea surface temperature, free tropospheric humidity, large-scale divergence rate, and wind speed is assessed. The comprehensive set of simulations corroborates previous studies that (1) with moderate/heavy drizzle, an increase in aerosol leads to an increase in cloud thickness; and (2) with non/light drizzle, an increase in aerosol results in a thinner cloud, due to the pronounced effect on entrainment. It is shown that for higher SST, stronger large-scale divergence, drier free troposphere, or lower wind speed, the cloud thins and precipitation decreases. The sign and magnitude of the Twomey effect, droplet dispersion effect, cloud thickness effect, and cloud optical depth susceptibility to aerosol perturbations (i.e., change in cloud optical depth to change in aerosol number concentration) are evaluated by LES experiments and compared with analytical formulations. The Twomey effect emerges as dominant in total cloud optical depth susceptibility to aerosol perturbations. The dispersion effect, that of aerosol perturbations on the cloud droplet size spectrum, is positive (i.e., increase in aerosol leads to spectral narrowing) and accounts for 3% to 10% of the total cloud optical depth susceptibility at nighttime, with greater influence in heavier drizzling clouds. The cloud thickness effect is negative (i.e., increase in aerosol leads to thinner cloud) for non/light drizzling cloud and positive for a moderate/heavy drizzling clouds; the cloud thickness effect contributes 5% to 22% of the nighttime total cloud susceptibility. Overall, the total cloud optical depth susceptibility ranges from ~0.28 to 0.53 at night; an increase in aerosol concentration enhances cloud optical depth, especially with heavier precipitation and in a more pristine environment. During the daytime, the range of magnitude for each effect is more variable owing to cloud thinning and decoupling. The good agreement between LES experiments and analytical formulations suggests that the latter may be useful in evaluations of the total cloud susceptibility. The ratio of the magnitude of the cloud thickness effect to that of the Twomey effect depends on cloud base height and cloud thickness in unperturbed (clean) clouds

Simulations of winter ozone in the Upper Green River basin, Wyoming, using WRF-Chem

In the Upper Green River basin (UGRB) of Wyoming and the Uintah Basin of Utah, strong wintertime ozone (O3) formation episodes leading to O3 mixing ratios occasionally exceeding 70 parts per billion (ppb) have been observed over the last 2 decades. Wintertime O3 events in the UGRB were first observed in 2005 and since then have continued to be observed intermittently when meteorological conditions are favorable, despite significant efforts to reduce emissions from oil and natural gas extraction and production. While O3 formation has been successfully simulated using observed volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) mixing ratios, successful simulation of these wintertime episodes using emission inventories in a 3-D photochemical model has remained elusive. An accurate 3-D photochemical model driven by an emission inventory is critical to understanding the spatial extent of high-O3 events and which emission sources have the most impact on O3 formation. In the winter of 2016/17 (December 2016–March 2017) several high-O3 events were observed with 1 h mixing ratios exceeding 70 ppb. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate one of the high-O3 events observed in the UGRB during March 2017. The WRF-Chem simulations were carried out using the 2014 edition of the Environmental Protection Agency National Emissions Inventory (EPA NEI2014v2), which, unlike previous versions, includes estimates of emissions from non-point oil and gas production sources. Simulations were carried out with two different chemical mechanisms: the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) and the Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (RACM), and the results were compared with data from seven weather and air quality monitoring stations in the UGRB operated by the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WYDEQ). The simulated meteorology compared favorably to observations with regard to temperature inversions, surface temperature, and wind speeds. Notably, because of snow cover present in the basin, the photolysis surface albedo had to be modified to predict O3 in excess of 70 ppb, although the models were relatively insensitive to the exact photolysis albedo if it was over 0.65. O3 precursors, i.e., NOx and VOCs, are predicted similarly in simulations with both chemical mechanisms, but simulated VOC mixing ratios are a factor of 6 or more lower than the observations, while NOx is also underpredicted but to a lesser degree. Sensitivity simulations revealed that increasing NOx and VOC emissions to match observations produced slightly more O3 compared to baseline simulations, but an additional sensitivity simulation with doubled NOx emissions resulted in a considerable increase in O3 formation. These results suggest that O3 formation in the basin is most sensitive to NOx emissions.</p

Impact of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic on the Otolaryngology Fellowship Application Process

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 a global pandemic. In addition to massive social disruption, this pandemic affected the traditional fellowship interview season for otolaryngology subspecialties, including head and neck surgical oncology, facial plastic and reconstructive surgery, laryngology, rhinology, neurotology, and pediatric otolaryngology. The impact on the fellowship interview process, from the standpoint of the institution and the applicant, necessitated the use of alternative interview processes. This change may alter the future of how interviews and the match proceed for years to come, with nontraditional methods of interviewing becoming a mainstay. While the impact this pandemic has on the fellowship match process is not yet fully realized, this commentary aims to discuss the challenges faced on both sides of the equation and to offer solutions during these unprecedented times

Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.</p

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response

Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research Consortium: Accelerating Evidence-Based Practice of Genomic Medicine

Despite rapid technical progress and demonstrable effectiveness for some types of diagnosis and therapy, much remains to be learned about clinical genome and exome sequencing (CGES) and its role within the practice of medicine. The Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research (CSER) consortium includes 18 extramural research projects, one National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) intramural project, and a coordinating center funded by the NHGRI and National Cancer Institute. The consortium is exploring analytic and clinical validity and utility, as well as the ethical, legal, and social implications of sequencing via multidisciplinary approaches; it has thus far recruited 5,577 participants across a spectrum of symptomatic and healthy children and adults by utilizing both germline and cancer sequencing. The CSER consortium is analyzing data and creating publically available procedures and tools related to participant preferences and consent, variant classification, disclosure and management of primary and secondary findings, health outcomes, and integration with electronic health records. Future research directions will refine measures of clinical utility of CGES in both germline and somatic testing, evaluate the use of CGES for screening in healthy individuals, explore the penetrance of pathogenic variants through extensive phenotyping, reduce discordances in public databases of genes and variants, examine social and ethnic disparities in the provision of genomics services, explore regulatory issues, and estimate the value and downstream costs of sequencing. The CSER consortium has established a shared community of research sites by using diverse approaches to pursue the evidence-based development of best practices in genomic medicine