Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-72: Application of the FABLE Calculator to model pathways to sustainable land use in Wales

This report summarises the application of the FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land use and Energy) Calculator to model sustainable food and land use systems in Wales. FABLE is an international model designed to simulate national level food and land use systems, which has previously been applied to the UK. For this study, we worked in partnership with Welsh Government to develop a version of the calculator specifically for Wales. We developed four different scenarios representing: (i) continuation of the current situation (Status Quo), (ii) slight improvements in line with current policy (Improvements on Current Trends), and two potential pathways to sustainability (iii) Land Sparing, based on ‘sustainable intensification and release of land for nature and carbon sequestration’ in line with the Climate Change Committee scenarios, and (iv) Land Sharing, using land management techniques which deliver biodiversity restoration, carbon sequestration and production simultaneously on the same land, which was more tailored to the specific land use context (large areas of rough upland grazing) and aligned with current Welsh legislation. Both the Land Sparing and Land Sharing scenarios included an assumption of dietary change towards the Eatwell healthy diet (a more plant-based diet), as well as reductions in food waste, improvements in agricultural productivity and increased tree planting. However, while the Land Sparing scenario assumed that production would be intensified, with a shift away from extensive grazing towards greater use of improved (fertilised, re-sown) pasture, the Land Sharing scenario assumed a shift to more low-intensity extensive grazing on species-rich semi-natural grassland. We tested the scenarios to identify pathways to sustainable land use and food systems that could deliver across multiple policy goals for greenhouse gas reduction, biodiversity conservation and healthy diets. The results indicate that maintaining the status quo or implementing only slight improvements to current policy will not be sufficient to enable Wales to reach net-zero GHG emissions (which requires the land use sector to be a carbon sink). However, both the Land Sparing and Land Sharing scenarios were predicted to enable the land use sector to become a net carbon sink, helping to offset emissions in other sectors. Both of these scenarios freed up land for biodiversity conservation; this was mainly semi-natural species-rich extensive grassland in the Land Sharing scenario and mainly ‘Other natural land’ (heath and bog) in the Land Sparing scenario. However, under the policy assumption that only 20% of new forest would be managed for biodiversity, none of the scenarios achieved the goal of creating an extra half million hectares of land for biodiversity conservation. The analysis showed that in order to achieve this goal it would be necessary to stipulate that 86% of all new forest should be planned and managed to deliver benefits for biodiversity, i.e. it should use a diverse mix of native species (and/or natural regeneration) and be sensitively managed to maintain good ground cover and a shrub understorey layer. Planting with a mix of native broadleaved species is also estimated to deliver more carbon sequestration over the first 30 years from 2020 to 2050 compared to a regularly thinned conifer plantation

Review of UK microgeneration. Part 1 : policy and behavioural aspects

A critical review of the literature relating to government policy and behavioural aspects relevant to the uptake and application of microgeneration in the UK is presented. Given the current policy context aspiring to zero-carbon new homes by 2016 and a variety of minimum standards and financial policy instruments supporting microgeneration in existing dwellings, it appears that this class of technologies could make a significant contribution to UK energy supply and low-carbon buildings in the future. Indeed, achievement of a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 80% (the UK government's 2050 target) for the residential sector may entail substantial deployment of microgeneration. Realisation of the large potential market for microgeneration relies on a variety of inter-related factors such as microeconomics, behavioural aspects, the structure of supporting policy instruments and well-informed technology development. This article explores these issues in terms of current and proposed policy instruments in the UK. Behavioural aspects associated with both initial uptake of the technology and after purchase are also considered

A prospective cohort study of digital cushion and corium thickness, Part 1: associations with body condition, lesion incidence and proximity to calving

Claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) are a major cause of lameness in dairy cattle and are likely a result of excessive forces being applied to the germinal epithelium that produces claw horn. The digital cushion is a connective tissue structure, containing depots of adipose tissue, that sits beneath the distal phalanx and has been shown to be thicker in fatter cows. Body condition score (BCS) loss is a risk factor for CHDL, and one possible explanation is that fat is mobilised from the digital cushion during negative energy balance, causing the digital cushion to thin and lose force dissipating capacity, leading to disruption of claw horn growth. This prospective cohort study investigated the association between measures of body fat and sole soft tissues (SST) thickness (a combined measure of the corium and digital cushion beneath the distal phalanx) in a longitudinal manner. SST of 179 cows in two high yielding dairy herds were measured at five assessment points between 8 weeks prior to and 35 weeks post calving. BCS, back fat thickness (BFT) and lesion incidence were recorded. Data were analysed in a 4-level mixed effects regression model, with the outcome being SST thickness beneath the flexor tuberosity of the distal phalanx. Data from 827 assessment points were available for analysis. The overall mean of SST was 4.99 mm (SD: 0.95). SST was thickest 8 weeks prior to calving (5.22 mm, SD: 0.91) and thinnest one week post-calving (4.68 mm, SD: 0.87), suggesting that there was an effect of calving on SST. BFT was positively correlated with SST in the model with a small effect size (a 10 mm decrease in BFT corresponded with a 0.13 mm decrease in SST), yet the nadir of BFT was 11.0 mm at 9-17 weeks post calving (when SST was ~4.95 mm), rather than occurring with the nadir of SST immediately after calving. SST also varied with other variables, e.g. cows that developed a sole ulcer or severe sole haemorrhage during the study had thinner SST (-0.24 mm), except when a sole ulcer was present, when it was thicker (+0.53 mm). Cows that developed lesions had a thinner digital cushion prior to the lesion occurrence, which became thickened with sole ulcer presence, perhaps representing inflammation. Further, whilst BFT was correlated with SST over time, SST may also have been influenced by other factors such as integrity of the suspensory apparatus, which could have a major effect on CHDL. Measures of body fat likely contributed to having thin SST, but other factors including calving, herd and lesion presence also had an effec

Observation of the 0+ 2 and γ bands in 98Ru, and shape coexistence in the Ru isotopes

Excited states in 98Ru were investigated using γ-ray spectroscopy following the β-decay of 98Rh, and via the 100Ru(p,t) reaction. Combining the results from the two experiments, two states were revised to have spin-parity of 4+ and subsequently assigned to the 02+ and “γ” bands, respectively. The observed structures in 98Ru are suggested to be deformed and rotational, rather than spherical and vibrational, and fit well into the systematics of these excitations in the Ru isotopes. The 02+ excitation is suggested as a shape coexisting configuration. This observation eliminates some of the last remaining candidates for nearly harmonic vibrational nuclei in the Z≈50 region. Beyond-mean-field calculations are presented that support shape coexistence throughout the Ru isotopes with N=52–62, and suggest a smooth evolution of the shape

Distribution of Major Health Risks: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND: Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%–61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1–3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. CONCLUSIONS: Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation

We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 × 10-11 to 5.0 × 10-21). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 × 10-6). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation