Analysis of No-Difference Findings in Evaluation Research

Conclusions of no difference are becoming increasingly important in evaluation research. We delineate three major uses of no-difference findings and analyze their meanings. (1) No-differ ence findings in randomized experiments can be interpreted as support for conclusions of the absence of a meaningful treatment effect, but only if the proper analytic methods are used. (2) Statistically based conclusions in quasi-experiments do not allow causal statements about the treatment impact but do provide a metric to judge the size of the resulting difference. (3) Using no-difference findings to conclude equivalence on control variables is inefficient and potentially misleading. The final section of the article presents alternative methods by which conclusions of no difference may be supported when applicable. These methods include the use of arbitrarily high alpha levels, interval estimation, and power analysis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67182/2/10.1177_0193841X8901300604.pd

The Qualitative Method of Impact Analysis

Consider the qualitative approach to evaluation design (as opposed to measurement) to be typified by a case study with a sample of just one. Although there have certainly been elaborate and emphatic defenses of the qualitative approach to program evaluation, such defenses rarely attempt to qualify the approach explicitly and rigorously as a method of impact analysis. The present paper makes that attempt. The problem with seeking to advance a qualitative method of impact analysis is that impact is a matter of causation and a non-quantitative approach to design is apparently not well suited to the task of establishing causal relations. The root of the difficulty is located in the counterfactual definition of causality, which is our only broadly accepted formal definition of causality for social science. It is not, however, the only definition we use informally. Another definition, labeled “physical causality,” is widely used in practice and has recently been formalized. Physical causality can be applied to the present problem. For example, it explains the persuasiveness of Striven’s “Modus Operandi” approach tailored case study design with a sample size of one in principle as strong a basis for making inferences program impact as a randomized experiment. Crucial program evaluation finding that people’s “operative reasons” for doing what they do are the physical actions. it is shown that external validity using this qualitative approach would have exceptional strengths.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67113/2/10.1177_109821409902000106.pd

Toward a Theory of Innovation

The purpose of this article is to eliminate further conceptual obstacles to the develop ment of a workable theory of innovation and to move toward a better theoretic statement. The approach to overcoming the conceptual problems centers primarily around four ideas: (1) building a theory around the "innovation decision" as the unit of analysis, rather than either innovations or adopters: (2) lifting the level of general ity of independent variables so that a great deal of statistical interaction is avoided; (3) splitting the act of innovation into two stages, diffusion and adoption, to eliminate the confounding effects of time of awareness in studies of innovation; (4) introducing the idea of a "fair-trial point" into the conceptualization of innovation, solving sev eral additional problems at once.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68286/2/10.1177_009539977901000401.pd

Calibration of Photomultiplier Tubes for the Fluorescence Detector of Telescope Array Experiment using a Rayleigh Scattered Laser Beam

We performed photometric calibration of the PhotoMultiplier Tube (PMT) and readout electronics used for the new fluorescence detectors of the Telescope Array (TA) experiment using Rayleigh scattered photons from a pulsed nitrogen laser beam. The experimental setup, measurement procedure, and results of calibration are described. The total systematic uncertainty of the calibration is estimated to be 7.2%. An additional uncertainty of 3.7% is introduced by the transport of the calibrated PMTs from the laboratory to the TA experimental site.Comment: 43 pages, 15 figure

A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found

Inter-hemispheric EEG coherence analysis in Parkinson's disease : Assessing brain activity during emotion processing

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is not only characterized by its prominent motor symptoms but also associated with disturbances in cognitive and emotional functioning. The objective of the present study was to investigate the influence of emotion processing on inter-hemispheric electroencephalography (EEG) coherence in PD. Multimodal emotional stimuli (happiness, sadness, fear, anger, surprise, and disgust) were presented to 20 PD patients and 30 age-, education level-, and gender-matched healthy controls (HC) while EEG was recorded. Inter-hemispheric coherence was computed from seven homologous EEG electrode pairs (AF3–AF4, F7–F8, F3–F4, FC5–FC6, T7–T8, P7–P8, and O1–O2) for delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma frequency bands. In addition, subjective ratings were obtained for a representative of emotional stimuli. Interhemispherically, PD patients showed significantly lower coherence in theta, alpha, beta, and gamma frequency bands than HC during emotion processing. No significant changes were found in the delta frequency band coherence. We also found that PD patients were more impaired in recognizing negative emotions (sadness, fear, anger, and disgust) than relatively positive emotions (happiness and surprise). Behaviorally, PD patients did not show impairment in emotion recognition as measured by subjective ratings. These findings suggest that PD patients may have an impairment of inter-hemispheric functional connectivity (i.e., a decline in cortical connectivity) during emotion processing. This study may increase the awareness of EEG emotional response studies in clinical practice to uncover potential neurophysiologic abnormalities

High Degree of Heterogeneity in Alzheimer's Disease Progression Patterns

There have been several reports on the varying rates of progression among Alzheimer's Disease (AD) patients; however, there has been no quantitative study of the amount of heterogeneity in AD. Obtaining a reliable quantitative measure of AD progression rates and their variances among the patients for each stage of AD is essential for evaluating results of any clinical study. The Global Deterioration Scale (GDS) and Functional Assessment Staging procedure (FAST) characterize seven stages in the course of AD from normal aging to severe dementia. Each GDS/FAST stage has a published mean duration, but the variance is unknown. We use statistical analysis to reconstruct GDS/FAST stage durations in a cohort of 648 AD patients with an average follow-up time of 4.78 years. Calculations for GDS/FAST stages 4–6 reveal that the standard deviations for stage durations are comparable with their mean values, indicating the presence of large variations in the AD progression among patients. Such amount of heterogeneity in the course of progression of AD is consistent with the existence of several sub-groups of AD patients, which differ by their patterns of decline

Distinct contributions of extrastriate body area and temporoparietal junction in perceiving one's own and others' body.

The right temporoparietal cortex plays a critical role in body representation. Here, we applied repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over right extrastriate body area (EBA) and temporoparietal junction (TPJ) to investigate their causative roles in perceptual representations of one's own and others' body. Healthy women adjusted size-distorted pictures of their own body or of the body of another person according to how they perceived the body (subjective task) or how others perceived it (intersubjective task). In keeping with previous reports, at baseline, we found an overall underestimation of body size. Crucially, EBA-rTMS increased the underestimation bias when participants adjusted the images according to how others perceived their own or the other woman's body, suggesting a specific role of EBA in allocentric body representations. Conversely, TPJ-rTMS increased the underestimation bias when participants adjusted the body of another person, either a familiar other or a close friend, in both subjective and intersubjective tasks, suggesting an involvement of TPJ in representing others' bodies. These effects were body-specific, since no TMS-induced modulation was observed when participants judged a familiar object. The results suggest that right EBA and TPJ play active and complementary roles in the complex interaction between the perceptions of one's own and other people's body