Prédiction du potentiel d'invasion des espèces non natives par des modèles de niche : approches méthodologiques et applications aux poissons d'eau douce sur le territoire français

Les espèces invasives sont une des perturbations les plus importantes des milieux aquatiques d'eau douce. La prévention des invasions passe par l'identification des zones dans lesquelles ces espèces sont susceptibles de s'installer. Cette thèse a mis en évidence que : - le changement de grain spatial modifie la mesure de l'aire de la distribution observée. Par contre, le grain des données utilisées pour calibrer les modèles influence peu la qualité des prédictions. - les grains les plus larges restent utilisables pour identifier les espèces changeant de niche climatique lors du processus d'invasion. - la majorité des six espèces de poissons étudiées présentent un fort risque d'établissement sous l'effet du changement climatique, même en l'absence de changement de niche de ces espèces. - la qualité des prédictions des modèles corrélatifs peut être améliorée en utilisant la méthode d'ensemble itérative que nous avons développée. Cette méthode est particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces invasives, mais aussi pour les espèces difficiles à détecter ou les espèces en danger.Freshwaters are among the most anthropogenicaly threatened ecosystems in the world. They especially face serious threats due to invasive species. Efforts are thus needed to control invasions and increase the accuracy of the models used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species. We showed that: - the area of the observed distribution, and thus the area of the distribution predicted by correlative models, increases exponentially with the spatial grain of the data. However, model quality is little affected by the grain of the data and decreases only for the largest grains. - coarse-grained occurrence data remain useful in identifying the species that experience niche shifts. - most of the six fish species that we have studied were able to establish in France under climate change, even without niche shift. - the iterative ensemble modeling method that we developed increases the accuracy of predictions as soon as the occurrence data set contained abundant non environmental absences. This new method is of interest for invasive species niche modeling but also to model the distribution of difficult to detect or endangered species

Composition Mixing during Blue Straggler Formation and Evolution

We use smoothed-particle hydrodynamics to examine differences between direct collisions of single stars and binary star mergers in their roles as possible blue straggler star formation mechanisms. We find in all cases that core helium in the progenitor stars is largely retained in the core of the remnant, almost independent of the type of interaction or the central concentration of the progenitor stars. We have also modelled the subsequent evolution of the hydrostatic remnants, including mass loss and energy input from the hydrodynamical interaction. The combination of the hydrodynamical and hydrostatic models enables us to predict that little mixing will occur during the merger of two globular cluster stars of equal mass. In contrast to the results of Proctor Sills, Bailyn, & Demarque (1995), we find that neither completely mixed nor unmixed models can match the absolute colors of observed blue stragglers in NGC 6397 at all luminosity levels. We also find that the color distribution is probably the crucial test for explanations of BSS formation - if stellar collisions or mergers are the correct mechanisms, a large fraction of the lifetime of the straggler must be spent away from the main sequence. This constraint appears to rule out the possibility of completely mixed models. For NGC 6397, unmixed models predict blue straggler lifetimes ranging from about 0.1 to 4 Gyr, while completely mixed models predict a range from about 0.6 to 4 Gyr.Comment: AASTeX, 28 pg., accepted for ApJ, also available at http://ucowww.ucsc.edu/~erics/bspaper.htm

Phase instabilities in hexagonal patterns

The general form of the amplitude equations for a hexagonal pattern including spatial terms is discussed. At the lowest order we obtain the phase equation for such patterns. The general expression of the diffusion coefficients is given and the contributions of the new spatial terms are analysed in this paper. From these coefficients the phase stability regions in a hexagonal pattern are determined. In the case of Benard-Marangoni instability our results agree qualitatively with numerical simulations performed recently.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, to appear in Europhys. Let

Cataclysmic Variables and a New Class of Faint UV Stars in the Globular Cluster NGC 6397

We present evidence that the globular cluster NGC 6397 contains two distinct classes of centrally-concentrated UV-bright stars. Color-magnitude diagrams constructed from U, B, V, and I data obtained with the HST/WFPC2 reveal seven UV-bright stars fainter than the main-sequence turnoff, three of which had previously been identified as cataclysmic variables (CVs). Lightcurves of these stars show the characteristic ``flicker'' of CVs, as well as longer-term variability. A fourth star is identified as a CV candidate on the basis of its variability and UV excess. Three additional UV-bright stars show no photometric variability and have broad-band colors characteristic of B stars. These non-flickering UV stars are too faint to be extended horizontal branch stars. We suggest that they could be low-mass helium white dwarfs, formed when the evolution of a red giant is interrupted, due either to Roche-lobe overflow onto a binary companion, or to envelope ejection following a common-envelope phase in a tidal-capture binary. Alternatively, they could be very-low-mass core-He-burning stars. Both the CVs and the new class of faint UV stars are strongly concentrated toward the cluster center, to the extent that mass segregation from 2-body relaxation alone may be unable to explain their distribution.Comment: 11 pages plus 3 eps figures; LaTeX using aaspp4.sty; to appear in The Astrophysical Journal Letter

The Evolution of Blue Stragglers Formed Via Stellar Collisions

We have used the results of recent smoothed particle hydrodynamic simulations of colliding stars to create models appropriate for input into a stellar evolution code. In evolving these models, we find that little or no surface convection occurs, precluding angular momentum loss via a magnetically-driven stellar wind as a viable mechanism for slowing rapidly rotating blue stragglers which have been formed by collisions. Angular momentum transfer to either a circumstellar disk (possibly collisional ejecta) or a nearby companion are plausible mechanisms for explaining the observed low rotation velocities of blue stragglers. Under the assumption that the blue stragglers seen in NGC 6397 and 47 Tuc have been created solely by collisions, we find that the majority of these blue stragglers cannot have been highly mixed by convection or meridional circulation currents at anytime during their evolution. Also, on the basis of the agreement between the predictions of our non-rotating models and the observed blue straggler distribution, the evolution of blue stragglers is apparently not dominated by the effects of rotation.Comment: 36 pages, including 1 table and 7 postscript figures (LaTeX2e). Also avaliable at http://astrowww.phys.uvic.ca/~ouellet/ . Accepted for publication in A

Oscillation patterns in negative feedback loops

Organisms are equipped with regulatory systems that display a variety of dynamical behaviours ranging from simple stable steady states, to switching and multistability, to oscillations. Earlier work has shown that oscillations in protein concentrations or gene expression levels are related to the presence of at least one negative feedback loop in the regulatory network. Here we study the dynamics of a very general class of negative feedback loops. Our main result is that in these systems the sequence of maxima and minima of the concentrations is uniquely determined by the topology of the loop and the activating/repressing nature of the interaction between pairs of variables. This allows us to devise an algorithm to reconstruct the topology of oscillating negative feedback loops from their time series; this method applies even when some variables are missing from the data set, or if the time series shows transients, like damped oscillations. We illustrate the relevance and the limits of validity of our method with three examples: p53-Mdm2 oscillations, circadian gene expression in cyanobacteria, and cyclic binding of cofactors at the estrogen-sensitive pS2 promoter.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

Active behavior of abdominal wall muscles: Experimental results and numerical model formulation

In the present study a computational finite element technique is proposed to simulate the mechanical response of muscles in the abdominal wall. This technique considers the active behavior of the tissue taking into account both collagen and muscle fiber directions. In an attempt to obtain the computational response as close as possible to real muscles, the parameters needed to adjust the mathematical formulation were determined from in vitro experimental tests. Experiments were conducted on male New Zealand White rabbits (2047. ±. 34. g) and the active properties of three different muscles: Rectus Abdominis, External Oblique and multi-layered samples formed by three muscles (External Oblique, Internal Oblique, and Transversus Abdominis) were characterized. The parameters obtained for each muscle were incorporated into a finite strain formulation to simulate active behavior of muscles incorporating the anisotropy of the tissue. The results show the potential of the model to predict the anisotropic behavior of the tissue associated to fibers and how this influences on the strain, stress and generated force during an isometric contraction

Stability of Oscillating Hexagons in Rotating Convection

Breaking the chiral symmetry, rotation induces a secondary Hopf bifurcation in weakly nonlinear hexagon patterns which gives rise to oscillating hexagons. We study the stability of the oscillating hexagons using three coupled Ginzburg-Landau equations. Close to the bifurcation point we derive reduced equations for the amplitude of the oscillation, coupled to the phase of the underlying hexagons. Within these equation we identify two types of long-wave instabilities and study the ensuing dynamics using numerical simulations of the three coupled Ginzburg-Landau equations.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figure

Millisecond Pulsars as Probes of Mass Segregation in the Galactic Center

We propose a simple test for the existence of a cluster of black hole remnants around Sgr A* that is based on a small sample of any type of Galactic Center objects, provided they are substantially less massive than the black holes and constitute part of an old (> 1 Gyr) population. The test relies on the fact that, under the presence of such a cluster of heavy remnants and because of energy equipartition, lower mass objects would be expelled from the central regions and settle into a distribution very different than the cusp expected to be induced by the supermassive black hole alone. We show that with a sample of just 50 objects and using only their angular positions on the sky relative to Sgr A* it is possible to clearly differentiate between a distribution consistent with the presence of the cluster of black holes and a power-law cusp distribution. We argue that millisecond pulsars might currently be the best candidate to perform this test, because of the large uncertainties involved in the age determination of less exotic objects. In addition, by measuring their first and second period derivatives, millisecond pulsars offer the rare opportunity of determining the complete phase space information of the objects. We show that this extra information improves the detection of mass segregation by about 30%.Comment: 16 pages, 1 Postscript figure; version accepted for publication in Ap