Spong rules out Senate, court bids

WILLIAMSBURG -- Neither judicial robe nor senatorial toga can lure former U.S. Sen. William B. Spong Jr. away from his unfinished mission as head of the Marshall-Wythe School of Law. Spong made that abundantly plain as he began to tell friends that he would not be available for either of two high offices to which his name had been linked by speculation in recent weeks. Answering questions last week from a pair of visiting newsmen whom he has known for many years, Spong effectively removed himself from the field of prospective candidates for the Virginia Supreme Court as well as the U.S. Senate in 1982. A straw poll of Democratic State Central Committee members one week ago indicated Spong was clearly favored for senator by these active party workers. When members were asked for the Democratic nomination, Spong led a dozen or so prospects with 137 points to the runner-up\u27s 118. Asked first if he were interested in running for the Senate seat to be vacated by Harry F. Byrd Jr. on Jan. 3, 1983, Spong responded with a quick, firm no. After a long pause, he added this one-sentence explanation: I think the Democrats need and should have a candidate whose appetite for public office is greater than mine. His response to the question of whether he might be available for the Supreme Court vacancy to be left Jan. 1 by the retirement of Justice Albertis S. Harrison Jr. seemed at first a bit tentative. Well, he began, I -- [pause] -- I will not ask that my name be considered for that position. It would be an honor to succeed Albertis Harrison on that court. But I\u27m not quite ready to leave here. I like what I\u27m doing, particularly the teaching, and I think I\u27ll stay around a while. What Spong has been doing since late 1975 is dedicating all his efforts to the rebuilding and improving of the venerable but once shaky law school that was founded under Gov. Thomas Jefferson and Professor George Wythe at the College of William and Mary in 1779. Former Young Turk A former Young Turk and state senator in the General Assembly: Democrat Spong was Virginia\u27s junior U.S. Senator in 1966-72. He was upset, a casualty of the McGovern presidential debacle, by Republican William Scott, largely as a result of a slashing electronic media blitz financed in the closing three week by a 250,000 loan from one man, the late J.B. Stetson Coleman. After his defeat, Spong quietly withdrew from the public gaze to concentrate on more scholarly pursuits involving research and writing on legal and governmental policy matters, as well as practicing law and teaching law courses at several institutions. Reporters and friends talking to him late last week got the impression he was so happily established in the academic world -- he once said he was determined not to become a professional ex-senator, but carve out a new career -- that he was not about to leave it now. In his slowly spoken, deliberate way, Spong minimized the possibilities that any sort of draft Spong movement might develop for the court or Senate, and indicated strongly that he would decline if it did. He has a commitment to himself to stay at W&M until certain things are accomplished, which means until some indefinite time in the future, he said. More than that, he cited approvingly a recent article that quoted him as saying he and Mrs. Spong have never been happier than they are now. That doesn\u27t mean he might not eventually move on to something else, he said. He wouldn\u27t speculate now on what it might be, but it quite evidently won\u27t be toward the Congress, even if his age -- he was 61 September 29 -- were no consideration. Recalling how he spent about 133,00 on his 1966 campaign, Spong guessed it would cost $2 million or more to wage the same sort of campaign next year. The obligations one might encounter in raising that money would be burdensome to me, he said. What the Democrats need, he said, is someone who hungers for the position and is willing to begin right now and work full time for it from now on. No, he wouldn\u27t suggest any names, but I hope they will find a candidate . . .who will continue the momentum that was undoubtedly started by the Democratic sweep of the three top state offices this year. (The 1981 election of Charles S. Robb as governor marked the first time Virginia Democrats have won either a gubernatorial or senatorial election since Spong and Harry F. Byrd Jr. were elected together as Democrats in 1966.) I was very happy being a senator . . . It\u27s one of the greatest jobs in the world, he said. Then, with a little chuckle, he added: I guess what you have to do to get there is something that you have to consider as well

Spong on Politicians, Teachers

The question, which touched on the relativities of the world of teaching and the world of politics, brought a slow smile to the face of the man at whom it was aimed. I wish, said William B. Spong Jr., that academicians were more tolerant of politicians, and that politicians were more tolerant of people in academia. I think they could learn something from one another. This was just one snippet from his reflections on whether having been a politician helped a man be a better teacher, and whether having been a teacher helped a man be a better politician. Spong, of course, has been, and probably still is, both. He began to teach at the same time he began to practice law, back in 1948. A year or so later, he gave up teaching and took up politics. After some 20 years of successful politicking, during which he served in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly and in the U.S. Senate, he was defeated for re-election as U.S. senator in 1972. And then he decided to turn again to teaching. For nearly five years, he has been Dean Spong of the Marshall-Wythe School of Law at the College of William and Mary, in this ancient Colonial capital, where a dedication ceremony yesterday symbolized the achievement of one of his major goals: Completion of the new Matshall-Wythe building, at costs totaling nearly $6 million, for which the state provided about$5.2 million and private sources provided about $500,000 more. At the time of the cornerstone-laying, some 16 months ago, U.S. Chief Justice Warren Burger said that the new law school building, along with the adjacent National Center for State Court would make Williamsburg one of the major law centers in the country. Another speaker suggested also that the twice-reborn old law school, which is sometimes called the nation\u27s first or oldest, would constitute one of the most modern and innovative facilities of its kind anywhere. At the time of the cornerstone-laying, too, Dean Spong made a little speech in which he said this is a day of joy, and it is a day of miracles, because this law school really isn\u27t supposed to be here. (Established by the college board on Dec. 4, 1779, at the urgings of Gov. Thomas Jefferson, as a professorship of law and police, the teaching of law was broken off during the Civil War, not to be resumed until 1921, and then was almost abolished in 1939, only to be saved by an aroused body of students and alumni.) In a conversation sometime before yesterday\u27s dedication, Spong was asked what, if the cornerstone day was a day of miracles, he would call the dedication day. It is still part of the same day of miracles-- a sort of final culmination of that day, he said. Yes, I think it is a miracle that the school endured . . . It was so small for so long, and it overcame so many adversities. Well, would he say that the school has now arrived and achieved the major law center stature of which Chief Justice Burger spoke? I don\u27t think we have arrived -- but I think we now have the potential to become what Chief Justice Burger predicted . . . We may need another decade to achieve that potential, but I certainly believe we\u27re on our way. There have been times -- for instance, on the last, long night of the 1976 General Assembly session -- when nobody, not even a hopeful new dean, could tell which way the law school was going. It took the 1976 Assembly all day Saturday night and until 9 o\u27clock Sunday morning to settle a fiscal controversy that threatened to deprive William and Mary of construction funds for the law building. And it took more suspenseful work to put over the 1977 bond issue to which the project was then relegated, along with other major capital outlays for higher education. In the flashbacks of the Spong memory, there was also a day in September 1948, when Spong drove here from his home city of Portsmouth to report to Dean Dudley W. Woodbridge and begin to teach a course in international law and a course in government as a part-time member of the law faculty. Just back from a year of graduate work in international and comparative law, along with courses in forensic medicine at the University of Edinburgh, after taking his law degree in 1947 at University of Virginia, Spong was a bit surprised at the relative smallness of the law school, a facility of four for an enrollment of fewer than 50 law school students. This fall Marshall-Wythe had an undergraduate enrollment of 483, plus a dozen graduate students, as it began classes in the new building with a faculty of 24 full-time teachers and 15 part-time adjuncts. The new structure, including an elaborately equipped library and moot (or practice) courtroom uniquely rigged with video-taping and other electronic devices to help students see and hear themselves in mock trial grapplings, has a rated capacity of 600 students. Ideally, however, Spong thinks the undergraduate students mostly specializing in tax courses that distinguish the Marshall-Wythe curriculum, so as to preserve the closer student-faculty relationships of the moderately sized school. If the teacher-politician\u27s memory goes back to the tiny school of 1948, it also spans the 1950\u27s and 1960\u27s, when Spong emerged as a promising Young Turk delegate and state senator with a special interest in education. His first political venture was to campaign vigorously in 1949 for the Byrd organization\u27s gubernatorial candidate, John S. Battle, whose sons, John Jr. and William, were good friends of Spong from college and university days. With other generally Byrd-oriented young lawmakers, Spong joined in the successful Young Turk rebellion that jarred the penny-pinching old guard into spending more surplus funds for higher education at the 1954 legislative session. Then he upset a locally powerful Byrdman to win Portsmouth\u27s Senate seat, which he held until he upset another ell-entrenched conservative back by the Byrd old guard in the 1966 Democratic primary for U.S. senator. Since the 1966 general election, in which Spong and Harry F. Byrd Jr. constituted the victorious Democratic ticket -- with Spong the front-runner -- no Democratic nominee for senator or governor has won in Virginia. Himself upset in 1972 by a most conservative Republican, Spong could trace his defeat to the burden of the McGovern presidential ticket, to a heavily-financed media blitz for his opponent-- and perhaps to his own campaign mistakes. After the 1972 defeat, and after serving as general counsel to an important international study commission, and after resuming his private practice of law at Portsmouth, why did Spong choose the presumably less lucrative course of teach-dean at a small law school with a doubtful, if not precarious, future? Well, that\u27s difficult to answer . . . I think I had done just about everything in the way of law practice that could come along in Portsmouth . . . And -- oh, frankly, I just thought this offered the opportunity to be more useful. Which is better, politics or teaching? I\u27ve enjoyed both-- all of it. I\u27ve enjoyed teaching, which I sought in the first place, to help me get established in the practice of law. I enjoyed the practice of law. And I always enjoyed politics-- even though I wasn\u27t a good politician . . . That led to more questions and answer about the mutualities of teaching and politicking. I think teachers should have more respect for politicians than they do. I think I understand people. I think the practice of law is dealing with people and the problems of people . . . I don\u27t think a successful lawyer can be clinically detached from humanity, from people . . . I think, if we are here to educate people to become lawyers and if we don\u27t understand people, and understand their failings as well as their virtues, then we will be doing a less than complete job with the people we\u27re trying to prepare for the practice of law . . . Politics can make you arrogant. It can also make you very humble. Looking back at the better politicians he had known, Spong thought they had at least one thing in common: a great understanding of what makes people tick. I think some measure of that imparted to students is a good thing. I don\u27t think you have to lecture on the virtue of politics. I think how you lecture (as a law teacher) can try to relate it in human terms, rather than just as something out of a book. Somehow, the name of John Garland Pollard as a predecessor of Spong\u27s as head of the law school came up. The reporter recalled hearing how Pollard, after winning the Virginia attorney general election in 1913, lost the primary election for governor in 1917 and then devoted himself to teaching law and government at William and Mary -- only to be drafted by Gov. Byrd to reunite the Virginia Democratic Party and the Byrd organization as the 1929 gubernatorial nominee after the political disasters of the 1928 presidential election. Suppose some sort of similar call or draft came next year for Spong as a man who might pull the fractious Democrats together and lure back conservative strays to help win the 1981 gubernatorial election? Well, first of all, I don\u27t think that\u27s going to happen. In fact, I\u27m so certain I don\u27t think we ought to speculate about it. But even if it did, I\u27ve sort of put my political days behind me, for two reasons. First, you cannot be a little bit in politics and do what I\u27m trying to do here. Politics is all consuming -- you\u27ve got to be prepared to give all the time it demands. That could only be to the detriment of what I\u27ve been trying to do here . . . As a result, I\u27m five years out of touch (with active politics) . . . I don\u27t think that way any more, and I don\u27t think I\u27m thought of that way any more. Well, Pollard was 10 years out of touch, but he ran and won. But what was Spong\u27s second reason? The other reason is that, having done what I\u27ve done, I\u27ve just sort of decided that, even if I were free from here, I would not be interested . . . If the retired politician had now become addicted to teaching, had he set any time period or goals for his work at William and Mary? No, as to time, but I think I will know when it\u27s time to go. Yes, I wanted to accomplish certain things when I came here. The building was one of them. There are others, to improve and advance the law school, that I hope will be forthcoming in the near future. And I\u27ll just decided what to do after that happens

Aqueous Nitrogen Dynamics in Irrigated Cropping Systems: Improving precision agriculture and environmental performance for the Australian cotton industry

The Australian cotton industry is an archetypal example of precision agriculture in action, having achieved significant efficiency gains in yield (kg lint ha-1) and water use (kg lint ML-1) over the past 50 years through sustained research and development investment. Unfortunately, nitrogen fertiliser use efficiency (NFUE) has not experienced the same gains over this period, and has instead declined. Australian irrigated cotton production requires high nitrogen (N) inputs to maintain its high yields. N application rates (kg N ha-1) have increased over recent decades due to a range of factors, including low fertiliser costs and grower risk appetites. Average yields have also increased over this period; however, they have not been proportional to the rise in N applications, resulting in steadily declining NFUE. While significant research describing N dynamics in Australian cotton systems already exists, there remain many research gaps to be filled. This thesis aims to address four research gaps to provide additional management levers for the Australian cotton industry to improve NFUE. The four topics explored herein are: (1) the effectiveness of aqueous N application (fertigation or water-run); (2) the mechanisms driving surface runoff N losses in flood irrigation; (3) the reaction rates and residence times of aqueous N; and (4) the degree of plant access to different soil N molecules. A series of field, laboratory, and glasshouse experiments were used to address these questions. Three field experiments measuring fertigation application efficacies were conducted on private farms in the Riverina, New South Wales (NSW) over the 2016-17 summer season. Another field experiment was performed at the Australian Cotton Research Institute (ACRI) in Narrabri, NSW over the 2017-18 season, measuring N runoff variations in alternate furrow irrigation configurations. Two laboratory experiments were performed at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Black Mountain site in Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, measuring the reaction rates and residence times of dissolved urea in soil-water systems. Finally, a glasshouse experiment was performed at CSIRO Black Mountain in January 2019, assessing the N uptake capabilities and preferences of three cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) varieties using 15N 13C stable isotope analysis. Chapter 2 aims to answer the question: "How effective are current Australian irrigated cotton fertigation practices at delivering consistent N to crops, and what management levers can be identified to improve outcomes?". Chapter 3 aims to answer the question: "How does N surface runoff vary spatially and temporally at sub-field and intra-irrigation scales respectively, and can this high resolution be used to identify specific mechanistic drivers of N runoff?". Chapter 4 aims to answer the question: "What is the residence time of dissolved N in irrigation water, and how does it vary across the farm environment?". Chapter 5 aims to answer the question: "Which soil N species can commercial cotton (G. hirsutum) directly take up, and what preferences does it exhibit when given a choice?". Improving NFUE represents a triple bottom line opportunity for the Australian cotton industry. Economically, it will save growers the cost of wasted fertiliser, and reduce yield from over-application. Environmentally, it will reduce N2O greenhouse gas emissions, increase soil carbon stocks, and reduce N deep drainage. And socially, it can help to grow Australian cotton's reputation as the most resource efficient in the world, and build its public profile and brand recognition. This thesis aims to improve precision agricultural practices and environmental performance for the Australian cotton industry by providing new information and management tools to increase NFUE

Spatial and temporal patterns and the chemical composition of the haze in the United States: an analysis of data from the IMPROVE network, 1988-1991

February 1993.Principal investigators: William C. Malm, Marc L. Pitchford.Includes bibliographical references.This report describes data obtained from the first three years, March 1988 through February 1991, of the IMPROVE measurement program Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments). IMPROVE is a cooperative visibility monitoring effort between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, federal land management agencies, and state air agencies

Final Summary Report to the Narragansett Bay Project Office: Assessment of Organic Contaminants in Narragansett Bay Sediments and Hard Shell Clams

As part of a multidisciplinary investigation on the sediments of Narragansett Bay, sediment trap materials, surface sediments, hard shell clams (Mercenaria mercenaria) and sediment cores from throughout the bay were analyzed for organic contaminants including: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs). polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), substituted benzotriazoles (BZTs), bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and coprostanol (COP). The objectives of this particular study were to provide information on the source, transport and biogeochemical fate of organic contaminants in the bay: while the overall goals of the investigation were to characterize the sediments and sedimentary processes of the Narragansett Bay system based on the results of integrated biological, chemical and geological studies. Sediment Trap Materials The sediment trap samples showed a trend of decreasing concentration for most components from Fox Point to Ohio Ledge, suggesting that the source(s) of these contaminants were pollution discharges (e.g., industrial and municipal effluents, CSOs. spills and runoff,) to the upper Providence River and its tributaries. In general, the agreement between the results from the present sediment trap study and older suspended solids data (1985-86) was quite good. However, the PHC concentrations reponed in 1977 were considerably higher than the more recent values. But it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine if changes have really occurred based on the limited number of samples analyzed and procedural variations in the different studies. In the case of BZT concentrations and their ratios (C10-BZT/Cl-BZT), there was a maximum amount of both BZTs and a minimum ratio in trap material at a Providence River station about 7 km south of Fox Point (i.e., adjacent to the Pawtuxet Cove entrance). This trend with distance is probably due to the source of the BZTs to the Providence River which is the Pawtuxet River via Pawtuxet Cove. The BZT ratio indicates a change in the relative amounts of the two compounds over the distance from the point of entry, i.e., there is a trend of increasing values with distance from Pawtuxet Cove (ratio = 1.5) to Ohio Ledge (ratio = 3.2). The ratio for sediment trap material from the Pawtuxet River was 1.0 - 2.0; since these values are generally lower than any others reported, it suggests that the river is the major source of the material in the Pawtuxet Cove traps. The relationships between contaminant concentrations in sediment trap material and surface sediments were quite good. For Ar 1254, the sediment levels were about twice the trap values. Conversely, the hydrocarbon concentrations in trap material were about 1.5 times as high for PHCs and about equal in pyrene, relative to the surface sediments. (In all cases, the correlations were significant at the 95% confidence level). In general, these data support the concept that the chemical composition of particulate material and surf ace sediments are closely related, and that the former could be a major source of contaminants to the underlying surface sediments. It is also possible that resuspended surface sediments could contribute to the particulate material in the water column depending on a number of factors such as bottom currents and extent of bioturbation. There was a significant relationship between the concentration of Cl-BZT in trap material and surface sediments; however, the relationship for the C10-BZT was not as good. and there is presently no explanation for these differences other than that the production of C-BZT started in 1963 and ceased in 1972, while that of the C10-BZT started in 1970 and continued to 1985. (The log Kow for both BZTs are essentially the same, Pruell & Quinn, 1985.) Perhaps, the former BZTs more uniformally distributed in particulate material and sediments than the more recently discharged C10-BZT. Changes in the BZT ratio (C10/Cl) of trap material may be due to a number of reasons including: the preferential retention of the C10-BZT and/or loss of Cl-BZT due to various biogeochemical reactions, and the resuspension of more recent sediments containing higher concentrations of the C10-BZT. This trend would be in agreement with the low ratio in Pawtuxet River surface sediments relative to sediment from the other locations where the ratios generally increase as found in the trap material. For example, the BZT ratio in surface sediments from Ohio Ledge is 7.2, in the mid-bay it is 8.2 and at the west passage the ratio is 9.5 (significant at the 9S% confidence level). Surface Sediments and Clams In general, the levels of all contaminants were highest in the Providence River sediments and decreased exponentially with distance downbay, with the lowest values usually found at the mouth of the bay. The major exception was a station in Newport Harbor in the lower east passage, where the concentrations of PHCs, PCBs and COP were relatively high and similar to some of the upper bay stations. The sources of the contaminants at this station may be related to sewage effluent, CSO discharges and runnoff to the harbor area. One way of evaluating the distribution of various contaminants in surface sediments is to compare the half distances for these components (defined as the distance in which the highest contaminant concentration decreases by 50%). A comparison of values for the east and west transects obtained in this study showed some small differences. For most components (exceptions are BZTs) the half distances were longer in the cast transect, suggesting additional sources of contaminants to that area. This may be due to several reasons including the influence of Newport effluents etc., different water circulation patterns in the two passages, and possible influences from Mount Hope Bay. Organic carbon had the longest half distance due to a large number of sources throughout the bay, and the BZTs had the lowest values since their only source is the Providence River via the Pawtuxct River. Finally, the PH Cs, P AHs. PCBs (sometimes measured as specific chlorobiphenyl (CB) cogeners) and coprostanol had similar half distances, suggesting major sources in the Providence River as well as smaller additional inputs throughout the bay. Five of the contaminants (CB 101, CB 138, PHCs, C10-BZT) showed significant correlations (95% confidence level or better) between sediment and clam concentrations, and all values decreased with distance from the Providence River. These sediment components are hydrophobic and are strongly partitioned into the clams\u27 lipids. Based on the data from this study, it may be possible to identify areas of the bay from which clams are harvested for commercial use. For example, clams suspected of being taken from areas closed to shellfishing could be analyzed for, these 5 contaminants and the results converted to sediment location using the relationships developed in this investigation. Trends from older investigations were generally similar to those observed in the present study; namely, highest concentrations in Providence River sediments and clams with decreasing amounts downbay. The range of previous values brackets those obtained in this study. Given then variations in station location, collection procedures, processing techniques and analytical methods, it is impossible to determine at the present time, if the concentrations have significantly changed over the past 15-20 years. Sediment Cores Highest levels and deepest penetration of PCBs (measured as CB 138) were in the Fox Point core which had a fairly uniform concentration down to 72 cm, but increased at 110 cm and remained about the same at the bottom of the core (147 cm). The other cores showed less penetration ranging from 42 cm (bottom of core) at Conimicut Point to 13 cm at Fields Point where the CB 138 values reached background (\u3c 0.1 ng/g) concentration. Apparently, the latter core site is a non-depositional area in contrast to Fox Point which has a relatively high sedimentation rate. The distribution of PHCs and pyrene were similar in some respects. In both cases, Fox Point had the highest level and deepest penetration with relatively constant values down to 147 cm. The PHCs never quite reached background levels in these cores (Ohio Ledge and Fields Point were the closest to background), but the pyrene did reach this level in two cores including the Fields Point core which again had the shallowest penetration (18 cm). Similar distributions were shown by COP and DEHP in that the Fox Point core had the highest levels and deepest penetration - a slight increase down to 110 cm followed by a prominent decrease to 147 cm. None of the cores reached background values for DEHP, but Ohio Ledge and Conimicut Point came very close. The COP reached background in only the Fields Point core but it rapidly increased again. It is impossible to adequately explain all of the trends in sediment core distributions with only the organic contaminant results. However, a detailed evaluation of all of the data (i.e., trace metals, organic components, biological species, pollen and geochemical analyses and radiometric dating) is currently being prepared in order to provide information on historical trends as recorded in the bay sediment cores (King et al., 1992). [Text taken from report summary.

Non Conformity to Norms: Why Do States Proliferate in Opposition to Well Established and Powerful Non-Proliferation Norms

Nine countries currently have nuclear weapons and of these only three have acquired them in the past 40 years. The primary reason for this has been the establishment of a powerful nuclear non-proliferation regime and its associated norms. The powerful influence of both the regime and the resulting norms on state behaviour is unquestionable. However a limited amount of state proliferation continues and some states’ behaviour suggests that they either reject, or believe that they are outside of the influence of the regime and its norms. My study is looking at the problem of non-conformity to the non-proliferation norm to see why it occurs. The issue is specifically a nuclear one however non-conformity to norms has wider implications in the study of international relations (IR). Regimes and norms clearly do not exist in a vacuum but operate within an international social environment. This nuclear issue remains a central consideration for state foreign policy and hence has justified extensive examination in the field of IR. The intellectually and ethically complex issues that surround access to this technology were acknowledged from its devastating baptism in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. International regulation was seen as the most appropriate form of control of nuclear weapons. This was in part due to the potential consequence of the misuse and the impact of accidents transcending national boundaries. This ultimate destructive capability has only been in the hands of a few states and the dissemination and control of this capability has been contentious from the day it was first used. Initially its power came from its potential to completely dominate militarily. As soon as the second country gained the same capability it became a lot more complicated. The destructive capability of nuclear weapons is such that any future war that saw their use could result in the annihilation of the human species. The Cold War and its extreme vertical nuclear proliferation actualised this fear. Nuclear technologies dual purpose functionality, of both peaceful power generation and the creation of a military nuclear capability make for a complex situation. There is an obvious power imbalance between the nuclear haves and have-nots and a self protective desire to stop or at least limit the number of countries attempting to join the ‘nuclear club’. Both realism and neo-liberal institutionalism are able to explain, in part, conformity and non conformity to regimes and their associated norms within today’s social environment. In this study I will use a social constructivist approach, which is based on the outcomes of persuasion, identification and social conformity, to see if it can add to the current explanations of state nuclear proliferation

Predictive modeling of housing instability and homelessness in the Veterans Health Administration

OBJECTIVE: To develop and test predictive models of housing instability and homelessness based on responses to a brief screening instrument administered throughout the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Electronic medical record data from 5.8 million Veterans who responded to the VHA's Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR) between October 2012 and September 2015. STUDY DESIGN: We randomly selected 80% of Veterans in our sample to develop predictive models. We evaluated the performance of both logistic regression and random forests—a machine learning algorithm—using the remaining 20% of cases. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Data were extracted from two sources: VHA's Corporate Data Warehouse and National Homeless Registry. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Performance for all models was acceptable or better. Random forests models were more sensitive in predicting housing instability and homelessness than logistic regression, but less specific in predicting housing instability. Rates of positive screens for both outcomes were highest among Veterans in the top strata of model‐predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models based on medical record data can identify Veterans likely to report housing instability and homelessness, making the HSCR screening process more efficient and informing new engagement strategies. Our findings have implications for similar instruments in other health care systems.U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Services Research and Development (HSR&D), Grant/Award Number: IIR 13-334 (IIR 13-334 - U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Health Services Research and Development (HSRD))Accepted manuscrip

Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods

Manipulative therapy and/or NSAIDs for acute low back pain: design of a randomized controlled trial [ACTRN012605000036617]

BACKGROUND: Acute low back pain is a common condition resulting in pain and disability. Current national and international guidelines advocate general practitioner care including advice and paracetamol (4 g daily in otherwise well adults) as the first line of care for people with acute low back pain. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and spinal manipulative therapy (SMT) are advocated in many guidelines as second line management options for patients with acute low back pain who are not recovering. No studies have explored the role of NSAIDs and/or SMT in addition to first line management for acute low back pain. The primary aim of this study is to investigate if NSAIDs and/or SMT in addition to general practitioner advice and paracetamol results in shorter recovery times for patients with acute low back pain. The secondary aims of the study are to evaluate whether the addition of SMT and/or NSAIDs influences pain, disability and global perceived effect at 1, 2, 4 and 12 weeks after onset of therapy for patients with significant acute low back pain. METHODS/DESIGN: This paper presents the rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial examining the addition of NSAIDs and/or SMT in 240 people who present to their general practitioner with significant acute low back pain

A Study of the Sediments of Narragansett Bay, Volume 1: The Surface Sediments of Narragansett Bay

This report is divided into two volumes. The focus of Volume I is the surface sediments of Narragansett Bay. Volume I contains a study of the surface sediments of Narragansett Bay (Chapter 1), a study of suspended sediments in the northwestern section of the Narragansett Bay System (Chapter 2), a study of the relationship between contaminant concentrations in the surface sediments and soft tissues of the hard clam, Mercenaria mercenaria in Narragansett Bay (Chapter 3), and the results of a side-scan sonar survey of the Providence River dredged channel (Chapter 4). The focus of Volume II is a study of sediment cores from the Narragansett Bay System. Chapter 5 contains the results of geophysical (side-scan and sub-bottom sonar) that support the core studies. The results of studies of sediment cores from Narragansett Bay are contained in Chapter 6, and the results of sediment core studies from its freshwater tributaries (i.e., the Blackstone and Pawtuxet Rivers) are contained in Chapter 7. (Text taken from report preface