Cardiac magnetic resonance findings predict increased resource utilization in elective coronary artery bypass grafting

Morbidity following CABG (coronary artery bypass grafting) is difficult to predict and leads to increased healthcare costs. We hypothesized that pre-operative CMR (cardiac magnetic resonance) findings would predict resource utilization in elective CABG. Over a 12-month period, patients requiring elective CABG were invited to undergo CMR 1 day prior to CABG. Gadolinium-enhanced CMR was performed using a trueFISP inversion recovery sequence on a 1.5 tesla scanner (Sonata; Siemens). Clinical data were collected prospectively. Admission costs were quantified based on standardized actual cost/day. Admission cost greater than the median was defined as 'increased'. Of 458 elective CABG cases, 45 (10%) underwent pre-operative CMR. Pre-operative characteristics [mean (S.D.) age, 64 (9) years, mortality (1%) and median (interquartile range) admission duration, 7 (6–8) days] were similar in patients who did or did not undergo CMR. In the patients undergoing CMR, eight (18%) and 11 (24%) patients had reduced LV (left ventricular) systolic function by CMR [LVEF (LV ejection fraction) <55%] and echocardiography respectively. LE (late enhancement) with gadolinium was detected in 17 (38%) patients. The average cost/day was $2723. The median (interquartile range) admission cost was$19059 ($10891–157917). CMR LVEF {OR (odds ratio), 0.93 [95% CI (confidence interval), 0.87–0.99]; P=0.03} and SV (stroke volume) index [OR 1.07 (95% CI, 1.00–1.14); P=0.02] predicted increased admission cost. CMR LVEF (P=0.08) and EuroScore tended to predict actual admission cost (P=0.09), but SV by CMR (P=0.16) and LV function by echocardiography (P=0.95) did not. In conclusion, in this exploratory investigation, pre-operative CMR findings predicted admission duration and increased admission cost in elective CABG surgery. The cost-effectiveness of CMR in risk stratification in elective CABG surgery merits prospective assessment

Do acute elevations of serum creatinine in primary care engender an increased mortality risk?

Background: The significant impact Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) has on patient morbidity and mortality emphasizes the need for early recognition and effective treatment. AKI presenting to or occurring during hospitalisation has been widely studied but little is known about the incidence and outcomes of patients experiencing acute elevations in serum creatinine in the primary care setting where people are not subsequently admitted to hospital. The aim of this study was to define this incidence and explore its impact on mortality. Methods: The study cohort was identified by using hospital data bases over a six month period. Inclusion criteria: People with a serum creatinine request during the study period, 18 or over and not on renal replacement therapy. The patients were stratified by a rise in serum creatinine corresponding to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria for comparison purposes. Descriptive and survival data were then analysed. Ethical approval was granted from National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee South East Coast and from the National Information Governance Board. Results: The total study population was 61,432. 57,300 subjects with ‘no AKI’, mean age 64.The number (mean age) of acute serum creatinine rises overall were, ‘AKI 1’ 3,798 (72), ‘AKI 2’ 232 (73), and ‘AKI 3’ 102 (68) which equates to an overall incidence of 14,192 pmp/year (adult). Unadjusted 30 day survival was 99.9% in subjects with ‘no AKI’, compared to 98.6%, 90.1% and 82.3% in those with ‘AKI 1’, ‘AKI 2’ and ‘AKI 3’ respectively. After multivariable analysis adjusting for age, gender, baseline kidney function and co-morbidity the odds ratio of 30 day mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 3.6, 7.7), 36.8 (95% CI 21.6, 62.7) and 123 (95% CI 64.8, 235) respectively, compared to those without acute serum creatinine rises as defined. Conclusions: People who develop acute elevations of serum creatinine in primary care without being admitted to hospital have significantly worse outcomes than those with stable kidney function

Does adding risk-trends to survival models improve in-hospital mortality predictions? A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinicians informally assess changes in patients' status over time to prognosticate their outcomes. The incorporation of trends in patient status into regression models could improve their ability to predict outcomes. In this study, we used a unique approach to measure trends in patient hospital death risk and determined whether the incorporation of these trend measures into a survival model improved the accuracy of its risk predictions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included all adult inpatient hospitalizations between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2009 at our institution. We used the daily mortality risk scores from an existing time-dependent survival model to create five trend indicators: absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the previous day; absolute and relative percent change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and number of days with a trend in the risk score. In the derivation set, we determined which trend indicators were associated with time to death in hospital, independent of the existing covariates. In the validation set, we compared the predictive performance of the existing model with and without the trend indicators.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three trend indicators were independently associated with time to hospital mortality: the absolute change in the risk score from the previous day; the absolute change in the risk score from the start of the trend; and the number of consecutive days with a trend in the risk score. However, adding these trend indicators to the existing model resulted in only small improvements in model discrimination and calibration.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We produced several indicators of trend in patient risk that were significantly associated with time to hospital death independent of the model used to create them. In other survival models, our approach of incorporating risk trends could be explored to improve their performance without the collection of additional data.</p

MicroRNA Expression Data Reveals a Signature of Kidney Damage following Ischemia Reperfusion Injury

Ischemia reperfusion injury (IRI) is a leading cause of acute kidney injury, a common problem worldwide associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We have recently examined the role of microRNAs (miRs) in renal IRI using expression profiling. Here we conducted mathematical analyses to determine if differential expression of miRs can be used to define a biomarker of renal IRI. Principal component analysis (PCA) was combined with spherical geometry to determine whether samples that underwent renal injury as a result of IRI can be distinguished from controls based on alterations in miR expression using our data set consisting of time series measuring 571 miRs. Using PCA, we examined whether changes in miR expression in the kidney following IRI have a distinct direction when compared to controls based on the trajectory of the first three principal components (PCs) for our time series. We then used Monte Carlo methods and spherical geometry to assess the statistical significance of these directions. We hypothesized that if IRI and control samples exhibit distinct directions, then miR expression can be used as a biomarker of injury. Our data reveal that the pattern of miR expression in the kidney following IRI has a distinct direction based on the trajectory of the first three PCs and can be distinguished from changes observed in sham controls. Analyses of samples from immunodeficient mice indicated that the changes in miR expression observed following IRI were lymphocyte independent, and therefore represent a kidney intrinsic response to injury. Together, these data strongly support the notion that IRI results in distinct changes in miR expression that can be used as a biomarker of injury

International criteria for acute kidney injury: advantages and remaining challenges

• Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is defined using widely accepted international criteria that are based on changes in serum creatinine concentration and degree of oliguria. • AKI, when defined in this way, has a strong association with poor patient outcomes, including high mortality rates and longer hospital admissions with increased resource utilisation and subsequent chronic kidney disease. • The detection of AKI using current criteria can assist with AKI diagnosis and stratification of individual patient risk. • The diagnosis of AKI requires clinical judgement to integrate the definition of AKI with the clinical situation, to determine underlying cause of AKI, and to take account of factors that may affect performance of current definitions

Arterial stiffness is a predictor for acute kidney injury following coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is a serious postoperative complication of cardiac surgery, an episode of which impacts on patient morbidity and mortality. Pulse wave velocity (PWV; a non-invasive measurement tool to assess arterial stiffness) has been shown to predict kidney disease progression, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. We hypothesised that PWV would also predict acute kidney injury in subjects who have undergone non-valve repair elective coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery