Gestión de bosques mixtos de pino y roble en escenarios de incertidumbre climática

The process-based forest growth model 4C (FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) was used to analyze the growth of a mixed oak-pine stand [Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Pinus sylvestris L.]. The oak-pine stand is typical for the ongoing forest transformation in the north-eastern lowlands. The pine and the oak trees are 104 and 9 years old, respectively. Three different management scenarios (A, B, C) with different thinning grades and a thinning interval of five years were simulated. Every management scenario was simulated under three different climate scenarios (0K, 2K, 3K) compiled by the regional statistical climate model STAR 2.0 (PIK). For each climate scenario 100 different realisations were generated. The realisations of the climate scenarios encompass the period 2036-2060 and exhibit an increase of mean annual temperature of zero, two and three Kelvin until 2060, respectively. We selected 9 model outputs concerning biomass, growth and harvest which were aggregated to a single total performance index (TPI). The TPI was used to assess the management scenarios with regard to three management objectives (carbon sequestration, intermediate, timber yield) under climate change until 2060. We found out that management scenario A led to the highest TPI concerning the carbon sequestration objective and management scenario C performed best concerning the two other objectives. The analysis of variance in the growth related model outputs showed an increase of climate uncertainty with increasing climate warming. Interestingly, the increase of climate induced uncertainty is much higher from 2 to 3 K than from 0 to 2 K.Se ha utilizado un modelo forestal basado en procesos denominado 4C (FORESEE - FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing Environment) para analizar el crecimiento de un masa forestal con mezcla de Quercus petraea y Pinus sylvestris. Ésta es una mezcla típica en las áreas de transformación forestal en las zonas bajas del noreste de Alemania. Los pinos y los robles tienen una edad de 104 y 9 años respectivamente. Se simularon tres escenarios diferentes de manejo (A, B, C) con diferentes grados de claras e intervalos de clara de 5 años. Cada escenario de manejo fue simulado bajo tres escenarios climáticos (0K, 2K, 3K) los cuales se calcularon por el modelo regional climático estadístico STAR 2.0 (PIK). Se generaron 100 diferentes realizaciones para cada escenario climático. Las realizaciones incluyen el período 2036-2060 y presentan un aumento de la temperatura anual de cero, dos y tres grados Kelvin hasta el año 2060, respectivamente. Seleccionamos 9 salidas del modelo relacionadas con la biomasa, crecimiento y rendimiento que se combinaron en un único índice de rendimiento total (TPI, total performance index). El TPI fue analizado para investigar los escenarios de manejo con respecto a tres objetivos de manejo (secuestro de carbono, máximo rendimiento maderero, y un escenario intermedio a ambos) bajo la influencia de cambio climático hasta el año 2060. Nuestros resultados indican que el escenario A muestra el TPI más alto con respecto al secuestro de carbono, y el escenario C tuvo el mejor resultado respecto a los otros dos objetivos. El análisis de varianza en las salidas relativas al crecimiento mostró que mientras más evoluciona el calentamiento global, más crece la incertidumbre climática. Cabe destacar que el aumento de la incertidumbre inducida por el clima es mucho mayor al aumentar de 2 a 3 K que de 0 a 2 K

Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined with particular regard to their suitability for simulating forest ecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seed production, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictions of responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the relatedassumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions are homogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future species diversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impacts in many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gap model representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of each of these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better models of regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effects of climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying out rigorous tests for each new formulation

An investigation of the RWPE prostate derived family of cell lines using FTIR spectroscopy

Interest in developing robust, quicker and easier diagnostic tests for cancer has lead to an increased use of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to meet that need. In this study we present the use of different experimental modes of infrared spectroscopy to investigate the RWPE human prostate epithelial cell line family which are derived from the same source but differ in their mode of transformation and their mode of invasive phenotype. Importantly, analysis of the infrared spectra obtained using different experimental modes of infrared spectroscopy produces similar results. The RWPE family of cell lines can be separated into groups based upon the method of cell transformation rather than the resulting invasiveness/aggressiveness of the cell line. The study also demonstrates the possibility of using a genetic algorithm as a possible standardised pre-processing step and raises the important question of the usefulness of cell lines to create a biochemical model of prostate cancer progression

Uncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change

In the future, Germany's land-use policies and the impacts of climate change on yields will affect the amount of biomass available for energy production. We used recent published data on biomass potentials in the federal states of Germany to assess the uncertainty caused by climate change effects in the potential supply of biomass available for energy production. In this study we selected three climate scenarios representing the maximum, mean and minimum temperature increase for Germany out of 21 CMIP5-projections driven by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Each of the three selected projections was downscaled using the regional statistical climate model STARS. We analysed the yield changes of four biomass feedstock crops (forest, short-rotation coppices (SRC), cereal straw (winter wheat) and energy maize) for the period 2031–2060 in comparison to 1981–2010. The mean annual yield changes of energy wood from forest and short-rotation coppices were modelled using the process-based forest growth model 4C. The yield changes of winter wheat and energy maize from agricultural production were simulated with the statistical yield model IRMA. Germany's annual biomass potential of 1500 PJ varies between minus 5 % and plus 8 % depending on the climate scenario realisation. Assuming that 1500 PJ of biomass utilisation can be achieved, climate change effects of minus 75 (5 %) PJ or plus 120 (8 %) PJ do not impede overall bioenergy targets of 1287 PJ in 2020 and 1534 PJ in 2050. In five federal states the climate scenarios lead to decreasing yields of energy maize and winter wheat. Impacts of climate scenarios on forest yields are mainly positive and show both positive and negative effects on yields of SRC

Realizing Mitigation Efficiency of European Commercial Forests by Climate Smart Forestry

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe's annual carbon emissions. Forest carbon density can be manipulated through management to maximize its climate mitigation potential, and fast-growing tree species may contribute the most to Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) compared to slow-growing hardwoods. This type of CSF takes into account not only forest resource potentials in sequestering carbon, but also the economic impact of regional forest products and discounts both variables over time. We used the process-based forest model 4 C to simulate European commercial forests' growth conditions and coupled it with an optimization algorithm to simulate the implementation of CSF for 18 European countries encompassing 68.3 million ha of forest (42.4% of total EU-28 forest area). We found a European CSF policy that could sequester 7.3-11.1 billion tons of carbon, projected to be worth 103 to 141 billion euros in the 21st century. An efficient CSF policy would allocate carbon sequestration to European countries with a lower wood price, lower labor costs, high harvest costs, or a mixture thereof to increase its economic efficiency. This policy prioritized the allocation of mitigation efforts to northern, eastern and central European countries and favored fast growing conifers Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris to broadleaves Fagus sylvatica and Quercus species

Christopher Lasch's the culture of narcissism the failure of a critique of psychological politics

Christopher Lasch's bestseller The Culture of Narcissism had, beyond doubt, a significant impact-it was even read in the White House. Today it is not only still frequently taught and referenced, there are also still empirical studies conducted which try to verify Lasch's assertion of the preponderance of the narcissistic personality. This paper re-reads the book as a critique of psychologization processes, and this allows us to discern, besides the flaws in Lasch's approach, a fundamental insight which goes largely unnoticed by both Lasch's opponents and his proponents. Following this, the article will situate subjectivity within the matrix of psychology, science, psychoanalysis, and politics. In this way a critique of contemporary forms of psychologization-psychologization under globalization, as it were-is made possible

Anti-Nirvana: crime, culture and instrumentalism in the age of insecurity

‘Anti-Nirvana’ explores the relationship between consumer culture, media and criminal motivations. It has appeared consistently on the list of the top-ten most-read articles in this award-winning international journal, and it mounts a serious neo-Freudian challenge to the predominant naturalistic notion of ‘resistance’ at the heart of liberal criminology and media studies. It is also cited in the Oxford Handbook of Criminology and other criminology texts as a persuasive argument in support of the theory that criminality amongst young people is strongly linked to the acquisitive values of consumerism and the images of possessive individualism that dominate mass media

From ‘Young Women’ to ‘Female Adolescents’:Dutch Advice Literature during the Long Nineteenth Century

In late eighteenth-century Europe, there was a rapid expansion in the publication of advice books directed at young adult women. Based on an examination of conduct books published in the Netherlands, this chapter traces the changing format of the genre from the last quarter of the eighteenth century through to the early decades of the twentieth century. It explores how women pedagogues in the nineteenth century developed new ways of advising young women that gave readers greater control over their life choices. In the early twentieth century, the emerging social sciences drew attention to the physical and emotional changes involved in female adolescence, prescribing for the young woman strict forms of behaviour