Predicting risk of dementia with machine learning and survival models using routine primary care records

Worldwide, it is forecasted that 131.5 million people will suffer from dementia by 2050, and the annual cost of care will increase from 818 billion USD in 2016 to 2 trillion USD by 2030, with burgeoning social consequences. Given a timely prediction of a dementia outcome in patients, appropriate mitigating interventions can be applied to reduce risk. However such prediction facilities need to be made available to wider populations, and these facilities cannot rely on specialised, costly and invasive testing (such as neuroimaging, cerebrospinal fluid collection, etc which constitute important instruments used in diagnosis), for interventions to have a meaningful quantitative impact. Hence an emerging need exists for the wider application of prognostic measures which can be deployed using lower cost data sources such as longitudinal records routinely collected by general practices. This paper proposes an efficient prediction modelling approach to the risk of dementia, using CPRD data collected from GP practices in UK, and based on machine learning in particular the Gradient Boosting Machines model combined with a survival model such as the Cox Proportional Hazard, encapsulated in a semi-supervised learning and model calibration methodology

Effectiveness of Provider and Community Interventions to Improve Treatment of Uncomplicated Malaria in Nigeria: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

The World Health Organization recommends that malaria be confirmed by parasitological diagnosis before treatment using Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT). Despite this, many health workers in malaria endemic countries continue to diagnose malaria based on symptoms alone. This study evaluates interventions to help bridge this gap between guidelines and provider practice. A stratified cluster-randomized trial in 42 communities in Enugu state compared 3 scenarios: Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) with basic instruction (control); RDTs with provider training (provider arm); and RDTs with provider training plus a school-based community intervention (provider-school arm). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients treated according to guidelines, a composite indicator requiring patients to be tested for malaria and given treatment consistent with the test result. The primary outcome was evaluated among 4946 (93%) of the 5311 patients invited to participate. A total of 40 communities (12 in control, 14 per intervention arm) were included in the analysis. There was no evidence of differences between the three arms in terms of our composite indicator (p = 0.36): stratified risk difference was 14% (95% CI -8.3%, 35.8%; p = 0.26) in the provider arm and 1% (95% CI -21.1%, 22.9%; p = 0.19) in the provider-school arm, compared with control. The level of testing was low across all arms (34% in control; 48% provider arm; 37% provider-school arm; p = 0.47). Presumptive treatment of uncomplicated malaria remains an ingrained behaviour that is difficult to change. With or without extensive supporting interventions, levels of testing in this study remained critically low. Governments and researchers must continue to explore alternative ways of encouraging providers to deliver appropriate treatment and avoid the misuse of valuable medicines

Pancreaticoduodenectomy for the treatment of pancreatic neoplasms in children: A Pediatric Surgical Oncology Research Collaborative study

BackgroundTo better characterize short- term and long- term outcomes in children with pancreatic tumors treated with pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).MethodsPatients 21 years of age or younger who underwent PD at Pediatric Surgical Oncology Collaborative (PSORC) hospitals between 1990 and 2017 were identified. Demographic, clinical information, and outcomes (operative complications, long- term pancreatic function, recurrence, and survival) were collected.ResultsSixty- five patients from 18 institutions with a median age of 13 years (4 months- 22 years) and a median (IQR) follow- up of 2.8 (4.3) years were analyzed. Solid pseudopapillary tumor of the pancreas (SPN) was the most common histology. Postoperative complications included pancreatic leak in 14% (n = 9), delayed gastric emptying in 9% (n = 6), marginal ulcer in one patient, and perioperative (30- day) death due to hepatic failure in one patient. Pancreatic insufficiency was observed in 32% (n = 21) of patients, with 23%, 3%, and 6% with exocrine, or endocrine insufficiencies, or both, respectively. Children with SPN and benign neoplasms all survived. Overall, there were 14 (22%) recurrences and 11 deaths (17%). Univariate analysis revealed non- SPN malignant tumor diagnosis, preoperative vascular involvement, intraoperative transfusion requirement, pathologic vascular invasion, positive margins, and need for neoadjuvant chemotherapy as risk factors for recurrence and poor survival. Multivariate analysis only revealed pathologic vascular invasion as a risk factor for recurrence and poor survival.ConclusionThis is the largest series of pediatric PD patients. PD is curative for SPN and benign neoplasms. Pancreatic insufficiency is the most common postoperative complication. Outcome is primarily associated with histology.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156233/2/pbc28425.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/156233/1/pbc28425_am.pd

Pancreaticoduodenectomy for the treatment of pancreatic neoplasms in children: A Pediatric Surgical Oncology Research Collaborative study

Background: To better characterize short-term and long-term outcomes in children with pancreatic tumors treated with pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Methods: Patients 21 years of age or younger who underwent PD at Pediatric Surgical Oncology Collaborative (PSORC) hospitals between 1990 and 2017 were identified. Demographic, clinical information, and outcomes (operative complications, long-term pancreatic function, recurrence, and survival) were collected. Results: Sixty-five patients from 18 institutions with a median age of 13 years (4 months-22 years) and a median (IQR) follow-up of 2.8 (4.3) years were analyzed. Solid pseudopapillary tumor of the pancreas (SPN) was the most common histology. Postoperative complications included pancreatic leak in 14% (n = 9), delayed gastric emptying in 9% (n = 6), marginal ulcer in one patient, and perioperative (30-day) death due to hepatic failure in one patient. Pancreatic insufficiency was observed in 32% (n = 21) of patients, with 23%, 3%, and 6% with exocrine, or endocrine insufficiencies, or both, respectively. Children with SPN and benign neoplasms all survived. Overall, there were 14 (22%) recurrences and 11 deaths (17%). Univariate analysis revealed non-SPN malignant tumor diagnosis, preoperative vascular involvement, intraoperative transfusion requirement, pathologic vascular invasion, positive margins, and need for neoadjuvant chemotherapy as risk factors for recurrence and poor survival. Multivariate analysis only revealed pathologic vascular invasion as a risk factor for recurrence and poor survival. Conclusion: This is the largest series of pediatric PD patients. PD is curative for SPN and benign neoplasms. Pancreatic insufficiency is the most common postoperative complication. Outcome is primarily associated with histology

Dysregulated Nephrin in Diabetic Nephropathy of Type 2 Diabetes: A Cross Sectional Study

Podocyte specific proteins are dysregulated in diabetic nephropathy, though the extent of their expression loss is not identical and may be subject to different regulatory factors. Quantifying the degree of loss may help identify the most useful protein to use as an early biomarker of diabetic nephropathy.Protein expression of synaptopodin, podocin and nephrin were quantified in 15 Type 2 diabetic renal biopsies and 12 control patients. We found statistically significant downregulation of synaptopodin (P<0.0001), podocin (P = 0.0002), and nephrin (P<0.0001) in kidney biopsies of diabetic nephropathy as compared with controls. Urinary nephrin levels (nephrinuria) were then measured in 66 patients with Type 2 diabetes and 10 healthy controls by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Exocell, Philadelphia, PA). When divided into groups according to normo-, micro-, and macroalbuminuria, nephrinuria was found to be present in 100% of diabetic patients with micro- and macroalbuminuria, as well as 54% of patients with normoalbuminuria. Nephrinuria also correlated significantly with albuminuria (rho = 0.89, p<0.001), systolic blood pressure (rho = 0.32, p = 0.007), and correlated negatively with serum albumin (rho = -0.48, p<0.0001) and eGFR (rho = -0.33, p = 0.005).These data suggest that key podocyte-specific protein expressions are significantly and differentially downregulated in diabetic nephropathy. The finding that nephrinuria is observed in a majority of these normoalbuminuric patients demonstrates that it may precede microalbuminuria. If further research confirms nephrinuria to be a biomarker of pre-clinical diabetic nephropathy, it would shed light on podocyte metabolism in disease, and raise the possibility of new and earlier therapeutic targets

Equity in healthcare for coronary heart disease, Wales (UK) 2004–2010: A population-based electronic cohort study

Despite substantial falls in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the United Kingdom (UK), marked socioeconomic inequalities in CHD risk factors and CHD mortality persist. We investigated whether inequity in CHD healthcare in Wales (UK) could contribute to the observed social gradient in CHD mortality. Linking data from primary and secondary care we constructed an electronic cohort of individuals (n = 1199342) with six year follow-up, 2004–2010. We identified indications for recommended CHD interventions, measured time to their delivery, and estimated risk of receiving the interventions for each of five ordered deprivation groups using a time-to-event approach with Cox regression frailty models. Interventions in primary and secondary prevention included risk-factor measurement, smoking management, statins and antihypertensive therapy, and in established CHD included medication and revascularization. For primary prevention, five of the 11 models favoured the more deprived and one favoured the less deprived. For medication in secondary prevention and established CHD, one of the 15 models favoured the more deprived and one the less deprived. In relation to revascularization, six of the 12 models favoured the less deprived and none favoured the more deprived–this evidence of inequity exemplified by a hazard ratio for revascularization in stable angina of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.68, 0.92). The main study limitation is the possibility of under-ascertainment or misclassification of clinical indications and treatment from variability in coding. Primary care components of CHD healthcare were equitably delivered. Evidence of inequity was found for revascularization procedures, although this inequity is likely to have only a modest effect on social gradients in CHD mortality. Policymakers should focus on reducing inequalities in CHD risk factors, particularly smoking, as these, rather than inequity in healthcare, are likely to be key drivers of inequalities in CHD mortality

Altered Antioxidant-Oxidant Status in the Aqueous Humor and Peripheral Blood of Patients with Retinitis Pigmentosa

Retinitis Pigmentosa is a common form of hereditary retinal degeneration constituting the largest Mendelian genetic cause of blindness in the developed world. It has been widely suggested that oxidative stress possibly contributes to its pathogenesis. We measured the levels of total antioxidant capacity, free nitrotyrosine, thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) formation, extracellular superoxide dismutase (SOD3) activity, protein, metabolites of the nitric oxide/cyclic GMP pathway, heme oxygenase-I and inducible nitric oxide synthase expression in aqueous humor or/and peripheral blood from fifty-six patients with retinitis pigmentosa and sixty subjects without systemic or ocular oxidative stress-related disease. Multivariate analysis of covariance revealed that retinitis pigmentosa alters ocular antioxidant defence machinery and the redox status in blood. Patients with retinitis pigmentosa present low total antioxidant capacity including reduced SOD3 activity and protein concentration in aqueous humor. Patients also show reduced SOD3 activity, increased TBARS formation and upregulation of the nitric oxide/cyclic GMP pathway in peripheral blood. Together these findings confirmed the hypothesis that patients with retinitis pigmentosa present reduced ocular antioxidant status. Moreover, these patients show changes in some oxidative-nitrosative markers in the peripheral blood. Further studies are needed to clarify the relationship between these peripheral markers and retinitis pigmentosa

Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer consensus statement on immunotherapy for the treatment of bladder carcinoma

Abstract The standard of care for most patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is immunotherapy with intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), which activates the immune system to recognize and destroy malignant cells and has demonstrated durable clinical benefit. Urologic best-practice guidelines and consensus reports have been developed and strengthened based on data on the timing, dose, and duration of therapy from randomized clinical trials, as well as by critical evaluation of criteria for progression. However, these reports have not penetrated the community, and many patients do not receive appropriate therapy. Additionally, several immune checkpoint inhibitors have recently been approved for treatment of metastatic disease. The approval of immune checkpoint blockade for patients with platinum-resistant or -ineligible metastatic bladder cancer has led to considerations of expanded use for both advanced and, potentially, localized disease. To address these issues and others surrounding the appropriate use of immunotherapy for the treatment of bladder cancer, the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) convened a Task Force of experts, including physicians, patient advocates, and nurses, to address issues related to patient selection, toxicity management, clinical endpoints, as well as the combination and sequencing of therapies. Following the standard approach established by the Society for other cancers, a systematic literature review and analysis of data, combined with consensus voting was used to generate guidelines. Here, we provide a consensus statement for the use of immunotherapy in patients with bladder cancer, with plans to update these recommendations as the field progresses