Functional Connectivity Analyses in Imaging Genetics: Considerations on Methods and Data Interpretation

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can be combined with genotype assessment to identify brain systems that mediate genetic vulnerability to mental disorders (“imaging genetics”). A data analysis approach that is widely applied is “functional connectivity”. In this approach, the temporal correlation between the fMRI signal from a pre-defined brain region (the so-called “seed point”) and other brain voxels is determined. In this technical note, we show how the choice of freely selectable data analysis parameters strongly influences the assessment of the genetic modulation of connectivity features. In our data analysis we exemplarily focus on three methodological parameters: (i) seed voxel selection, (ii) noise reduction algorithms, and (iii) use of additional second level covariates. Our results show that even small variations in the implementation of a functional connectivity analysis can have an impact on the connectivity pattern that is as strong as the potential modulation by genetic allele variants. Some effects of genetic variation can only be found for one specific implementation of the connectivity analysis. A reoccurring difficulty in the field of psychiatric genetics is the non-replication of initially promising findings, partly caused by the small effects of single genes. The replication of imaging genetic results is therefore crucial for the long-term assessment of genetic effects on neural connectivity parameters. For a meaningful comparison of imaging genetics studies however, it is therefore necessary to provide more details on specific methodological parameters (e.g., seed voxel distribution) and to give information how robust effects are across the choice of methodological parameters

Seasonality of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: a systematic review

This article is fully open access and the published version is available free of charge from the jounal website.http://www.malariajournal.com/content/14/1/343Background Although Plasmodium falciparum transmission frequently exhibits seasonal patterns, the drivers of malaria seasonality are often unclear. Given the massive variation in the landscape upon which transmission acts, intra-annual fluctuations are likely influenced by different factors in different settings. Further, the presence of potentially substantial inter-annual variation can mask seasonal patterns; it may be that a location has “strongly seasonal” transmission and yet no single season ever matches the mean, or synoptic, curve. Accurate accounting of seasonality can inform efficient malaria control and treatment strategies. In spite of the demonstrable importance of accurately capturing the seasonality of malaria, data required to describe these patterns is not universally accessible and as such localized and regional efforts at quantifying malaria seasonality are disjointed and not easily generalized. Methods The purpose of this review was to audit the literature on seasonality of P. falciparum and quantitatively summarize the collective findings. Six search terms were selected to systematically compile a list of papers relevant to the seasonality of P. falciparum transmission, and a questionnaire was developed to catalogue the manuscripts. Results and discussion 152 manuscripts were identified as relating to the seasonality of malaria transmission, deaths due to malaria or the population dynamics of mosquito vectors of malaria. Among these, there were 126 statistical analyses and 31 mechanistic analyses (some manuscripts did both). Discussion Identified relationships between temporal patterns in malaria and climatological drivers of malaria varied greatly across the globe, with different drivers appearing important in different locations. Although commonly studied drivers of malaria such as temperature and rainfall were often found to significantly influence transmission, the lags between a weather event and a resulting change in malaria transmission also varied greatly by location. Conclusions The contradicting results of studies using similar data and modelling approaches from similar locations as well as the confounding nature of climatological covariates underlines the importance of a multi-faceted modelling approach that attempts to capture seasonal patterns at both small and large spatial scales. Keywords: Plasmodium falciparum ; Seasonality; Climatic driversAcknowledgements This work was supported by the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. DLS is funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1110495), which also supports RCR. PMA is grateful to the University of Utrecht for supporting him with The Belle van Zuylen Chair. PWG is a Career Development Fellow (K00669X) jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and receives support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1068048, OPP1106023)

Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems

There is growing interest in understanding the nature and consequences of interactions among infectious agents. Pathogen interactions can be operational at different scales, either within a co-infected host or in host populations where they co-circulate, and can be either cooperative or competitive. The detection of interactions among pathogens has typically involved the study of synchrony in the oscillations of the protagonists, but as we show here, phase association provides an unreliable dynamical fingerprint for this task. We assess the capacity of a likelihood-based inference framework to accurately detect and quantify the presence and nature of pathogen interactions on the basis of realistic amounts and kinds of simulated data. We show that when epidemiological and demographic processes are well understood, noisy time series data can contain sufficient information to allow correct inference of interactions in multi-pathogen systems. The inference power is dependent on the strength and time-course of the underlying mechanism: stronger and longer-lasting interactions are more easily and more precisely quantified. We examine the limitations of our approach to stochastic temporal variation, under-reporting, and over-aggregation of data. We propose that likelihood shows promise as a basis for detection and quantification of the effects of pathogen interactions and the determination of their (competitive or cooperative) nature on the basis of population-level time-series data

Forcing Versus Feedback: Epidemic Malaria and Monsoon Rains in Northwest India

Malaria epidemics in regions with seasonal windows of transmission can vary greatly in size from year to year. A central question has been whether these interannual cycles are driven by climate, are instead generated by the intrinsic dynamics of the disease, or result from the resonance of these two mechanisms. This corresponds to the more general inverse problem of identifying the respective roles of external forcings vs. internal feedbacks from time series for nonlinear and noisy systems. We propose here a quantitative approach to formally compare rival hypotheses on climate vs. disease dynamics, or external forcings vs. internal feedbacks, that combines dynamical models with recently developed, computational inference methods. The interannual patterns of epidemic malaria are investigated here for desert regions of northwest India, with extensive epidemiological records for Plasmodium falciparum malaria for the past two decades. We formulate a dynamical model of malaria transmission that explicitly incorporates rainfall, and we rely on recent advances on parameter estimation for nonlinear and stochastic dynamical systems based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. Results show a significant effect of rainfall in the inter-annual variability of epidemic malaria that involves a threshold in the disease response. The model exhibits high prediction skill for yearly cases in the malaria transmission season following the monsoonal rains. Consideration of a more complex model with clinical immunity demonstrates the robustness of the findings and suggests a role of infected individuals that lack clinical symptoms as a reservoir for transmission. Our results indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of the disease itself play a role at the seasonal, but not the interannual, time scales. They illustrate the feasibility of forecasting malaria epidemics in desert and semi-arid regions of India based on climate variability. This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing

Critical dynamic approach to stationary states in complex systems

A dynamic scaling Ansatz for the approach to stationary states in complex systems is proposed and tested by means of extensive simulations applied to both the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model, which exhibits robust Self-Organised Critical (SOC) behaviour, and the Game of Life (GOL) of J. Conway, whose critical behaviour is under debate. Considering the dynamic scaling behaviour of the density of sites (ρ(t)), it is shown that i) by starting the dynamic measurements with configurations such that ρ(t=0) →0, one observes an initial increase of the density with exponents θ= 0.12(2) and θ= 0.11(2) for the BS and GOL models, respectively; ii) by using initial configurations with ρ(t=0) →1, the density decays with exponents δ= 0.47(2) and δ= 0.28(2) for the BS and GOL models, respectively. It is also shown that the temporal autocorrelation decays with exponents Ca = 0.35(2) (Ca = 0.35(5)) for the BS (GOL) model. By using these dynamically determined critical exponents and suitable scaling relationships, we also obtain the dynamic exponents z = 2.10(5) (z = 2.10(5)) for the BS (GOL) model. Based on this evidence we conclude that the dynamic approach to stationary states of the investigated models can be described by suitable power-law functions of time with well-defined exponents

Influence of the Mn content on the kinetics of austempering transformation in compacted graphite cast iron

Mossbauer spectroscopy has been used to monitor the kinetics of austempering transformation in two compacted graphite (CG) cast irons alloyed with 0.11 and 0.58 wt pct of Mn, respectively. The phase relations were analyzed in terms of the Johnson-Mehl’s equation, determining the kinetics parameters<em>n</em>(time exponent) and<em>k</em>(constant rate of the transformation). The values obtained were<em>n</em>=1.4 and<em>k</em>=7.47 × 10−3s−1for the low-Mn alloy, and<em>n</em>=2.2 and<em>k</em>=3.9×10−3s−1for the high-Mn alloy. These results, which reveal a faster kinetics for the low-Mn alloy, are coherent with metallographic observations, and the driving force obtained through the determination of the austenite carbon concentration that was determined from the Mossbauer data using the Genins model for the Fe-C configurations in the fcc lattice. The kinetics parameters are further compared to those obtained in austempered ductile iron (ADI), by analyzing the graphite morphology influence on the austempering transformation