265 research outputs found

    Integrated game-theory modelling for multi enterprise-wide coordination and collaboration under uncertain competitive environment

    Get PDF
    In this work, an integrated Game Theory (GT) approach is developed for the coordination of multi-enterprise Supply Chains (SCs) in a competitive uncertain environment. The conflicting goals of the different participants are solved through coordination contracts using a non-cooperative non-zero-sum Stackelberg game under the leadership of the manufacturer. The Stackelberg payoff matrix is built under the nominal conditions, and then evaluated under different probable uncertain scenarios using a Monte-Carlo simulation. The competition between the Stackelberg game players and the third parties is solved through a Nash Equilibrium game. A novel way to analyze the game outcome is proposed based on a win–win Stackelberg set of “Pareto-frontiers”. The benefits of the resulting MINLP tactical models are illustrated by a case study with different vendors around a client SC. The results show that the coordinated decisions lead to higher expected payoffs compared to the standalone case, while also leading to uncertainty reduction.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

    Media coverage and speculation about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide: A content analysis of UK news

    Get PDF
    Objectives: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much concern and speculation about rises in suicide rates, despite evidence that suicides did not in fact increase in the first year of the pandemic in most countries with real-time suicide data. This public narrative is potentially harmful, as well as misleading, and is likely to be perpetuated by sensational news coverage. Method: Using a bespoke database, we analysed the quality and content of print and online UK news (including opinion pieces) on the impact of COVID-19 on suicidality, based on adherence to international recommendations. Chi-square tests were conducted to examine variability in relation to key characteristics (e.g., type of publication) and to four ‘restriction phases’ (based on UK government official lockdown measures) over the first 14 months of the pandemic. Results: We identified 372 stories about COVID-19 and suicidality in online and print news between the first UK lockdown (March 2020) and May 2021 (when restrictions were significantly eased in the UK). Throughout this period, over a third of articles (39.2%) and headlines (41.4%) claimed or predicted a rise in suicide, often attributed to feelings of entrapment and poor mental health (especially amongst young people), and fueled by expert commentary and speculation. Almost a third of reports were rated as being of negative quality (116, 31.2%), and at least half included no signposting to help and support. However, reporting improved in phases of less stringent COVID-19 restrictions and over time, with later articles and headlines including fewer negative statements and predictions about rises in suicides, and greater reliance on academic evidence. Conclusions: As the longer-term consequences of the pandemic develop, and other national and global events unfold, it is increasingly important that the media, and the wider community of experts shaping its narratives, strive for a positive and evidence-informed approach to news coverage of suicide

    Evaluación cuantitativa del riesgo de entrada del virus de la gripe aviar altamente patógeno en la comunidad valenciana por importación de aves vivas

    Get PDF
    The Region of Valencia has had many imports of live poultry from different countries that have had several outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Bird flu during their history. The aim of this paper is to do a quantitative assessment of the risk of entry of HPAI in the Region of Valencia and its provinces due to the importation of live poultry, and identify the countries which entail a higher risk. The results indicate that Alicante is the province with more risk and Italy is the country that represents the greatest proportion of risk due to his imports. The probability to introduce the HPAI virus to the Region of Valencia due to life poultry imports is low.En la Comunidad Valenciana (CV) se importa cantidades altas de aves vivas desde países que han sufrido algún brote de influenza aviar altamente patógena (HPAI) a lo largo de su historia. El objetivo de este trabajo es realizar una evaluación cuantitativa del riesgo que hay de que el virus HPAI entre en la CV y sus provincias por importación de aves vivas, e identificar los países desde los que es más probable introducirlo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran a Alicante como la provincia con más probabilidad de sufrir la entrada del virus y a Italia, el país desde donde hay más probabilidad que entre. La probabilidad de introducir el virus HPAI en la CV mediante importaciones de aves vivas es baja

    Recommendations for headache service organisation and delivery in Europe.

    Get PDF
    Headache disorders are a major public-health priority, and there is pressing need for effective solutions to them. Better health care for headache-and ready access to it-are central to these solutions; therefore, the organisation of headache-related services within the health systems of Europe becomes an important focus. These recommendations are the result of collaboration between the European Headache Federation and Lifting The Burden: the Global Campaign against Headache. The process of development included wide consultation. To meet the very high level of need for headache care both effectively and efficiently, the recommendations formulate a basic three-level model of health-care organisation rationally spread across primary and secondary health-care sectors, taking account of the different skills and expertise in these sectors. They recognise that health services are differently structured in countries throughout Europe, and not always adequately resourced. Therefore, they aim to be adaptable to suit these differences. They are set out in five sections: needs assessment, description of the model, adaptation, standards and educational implications

    Hibridación de tecnologías renovables para adaptar la generación a la curva de demanda

    Get PDF
    Actualmente el equilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda eléctrica se sucede en tiempo real, y el sistema soporta unos sobrecostes derivados de la sobreinstalación de potencia no gestionable. El presente trabajo analizará la posibilidad de adaptar la generación de energía renovable a una curva previamente establecida. Para ello, el ejercicio va a satisfacer una demanda, atendiendo a la actual configuración de redes eléctricas, como un paso intermedio entre la generación centralizada y la generación distribuida. A partir de una demanda previamente escalada, se va a garantizar la máxima energía posible ajustada a la curva de demanda, mediante un sistema híbrido fotovoltaico y eólico, compensando excesos y carencias mediante un almacenamiento. El trabajo se realizará a partir de datos de producción horarios extraídos de instalaciones den operación, y la curva de demanda será la publicada por Red Eléctrica de España. El alcance del trabajo se detalla a continuación: 1. Ajustar la generación de electricidad de origen fotovoltaico a la curva de demanda, y calcular el porcentaje de demanda satisfecha. 2. Ajustar la generación de electricidad de origen eólico a la curva de demanda y calcular el porcentaje de demanda satisfecha. 3. Generar conjuntamente eólica y fotovoltaica de acuerdo a la curva de demanda. Analizar su compatibilidad y calcular el porcentaje de demanda satisfecha. 4. Implementar un almacenamiento y cuantificar su mejora. 5. Incorporar un grupo biodiesel al sistema formado por la hibridación y el almacenamiento, con el objetivo de intentar cubrir la totalidad de la demanda. 6. Elaborar las conclusiones obtenidas acerca de la posibilidad de satisfacer o no la demanda. Calcular la energía de exceso, las horas de funcionamiento y la viabilidad económica de la instalación. 7. Por último, realizar un pequeño análisis de las oportunidades de mercado
    corecore