Combining domain knowledge and statistical models in time series analysis

This paper describes a new approach to time series modeling that combines subject-matter knowledge of the system dynamics with statistical techniques in time series analysis and regression. Applications to American option pricing and the Canadian lynx data are given to illustrate this approach.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000001049 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Tongju Gongcai: A Case in Hong Kong’s Caacaanteng

Tongju Gongcai: A Case in Hong Kong’s Caacaanten

Socioeconomic determinants of multimorbidity: a population-based household survey of Hong Kong Chinese

<b>Introduction</b> Multimorbidity has been well researched in terms of consequences and healthcare implications. Nevertheless, its risk factors and determinants, especially in the Asian context, remain understudied. We tested the hypothesis of a negative relationship between socioeconomic status and multimorbidity, with contextually different patterns from those observed in the West.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> We conducted our study in the general Hong Kong (HK) population. Data on current health conditions, health behaviours, socio-demographic and socioeconomic characteristics was obtained from HK Government’s Thematic Household Survey. 25,780 individuals aged 15 or above were sampled. Binary logistic and negative binomial regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for presence of multimorbidity and number of chronic conditions, respectively. Sub-analysis of possible mediation effect through financial burden borne by private housing residents on multimorbidity was also conducted.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Unadjusted and adjusted models showed that being female, being 25 years or above, having an education level of primary schooling or below, having less than HK$15,000 monthly household income, being jobless or retired, and being past daily smoker were significant risk factors for the presence of multimorbidity and increased number of chronic diseases. Living in private housing was significantly associated with higher chance of multimorbidity and increased number of chronic diseases only after adjustments.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b>Less advantaged people tend to have higher risks of multimorbidity and utilize healthcare from the public sector with poorer primary healthcare experience. Moreover, middle-class people who are not eligible for government subsidized public housing may be of higher risk of multimorbidity due to psychosocial stress from paying for the severely unaffordable private housing

Effective gauge group of pure loop quantum gravity is SO(3): New estimate of the Immirzi parameter

We argue that the effective gauge group for {\it pure} four-dimensional loop quantum gravity(LQG) is SO(3) (or $SO(3,C)$) instead of SU(2) (or $SL(2,C)$). As a result, links with half-integer spins in spin network states are not realized for {\it pure} LQG, implying a modification of the spectra of area and volume operators. Our observations imply a new value of $\gamma \approx 0.170$ for the Immirzi parameter which is obtained from matching the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy to the number of states from LQG calculations. Moreover, even if the dominant contribution to the entropy is not assumed to come from configurations with the minimum spins, the results of both pure LQG and the supersymmetric extension of LQG can be made compatible when only integer spins are realized for the former, while the latter also contains half-integer spins, together with an Immirzi parameter for the supersymmetric case which is twice the value of the SO(3) theory. We also verify that the $-{1/2}$ coefficient of logarithmic correction to the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula is robust, independent of whether only integer, or also half-integer spins, are realized.Comment: new value of Immirzi parameter is ~0.170; dominance of miminum spin configurations is not assumed in comparing with Bekenstein-Hawking formula; typos corrected. Version pressed in PL