Snapshot Provisioning of Cloud Application Stacks to Face Traffic Surges

Traffic surges, like the Slashdot effect, occur when a web application is overloaded by a huge number of requests, potentially leading to unavailability. Unfortunately, such traffic variations are generally totally unplanned, of great amplitude, within a very short period, and a variable delay to return to a normal regime. In this report, we introduce PeakForecast as an elastic middleware solution to detect and absorb a traffic surge. In particular, PeakForecast can, from a trace of queries received in the last seconds, minutes or hours, to detect if the underlying system is facing a traffic surge or not, and then estimate the future traffic using a forecast model with an acceptable precision, thereby calculating the number of resources required to absorb the remaining traffic to come. We validate our solution by experimental results demonstrating that it can provide instantaneous elasticity of resources for traffic surges observed on the Japanese version of Wikipedia during the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011.Les pics de trafic, tels que l'effet Slashdot, apparaissent lorsqu'une application web doit faire face un nombre important de requêtes qui peut potentiellement entraîner une mise hors service de l'application. Malheureusement, de telles variations de traffic sont en général totalement imprévues et d'une grande amplitude, arrivent pendant une très courte période de temps et le retour à un régime normal prend un délai variable. Dans ce rapport, nous présentons PeakForecast qui est une solution intergicielle élastique pour détecter et absorber les pics de trafic. En particulier, PeakForecast peut, à partir des traces de requêtes reçues dans les dernières secondes, minutes ou heures, détecter si le système sous-jacent fait face ou non à un pic de trafic, estimer le trafic futur en utilisant un modèle de prédiction suffisamment précis, et calculer le nombre de ressources nécessaires à l'absorption du trafic restant à venir. Nous validons notre solution avec des résultats expérimentaux qui démontrent qu'elle fournit une élasticité instantanée des ressources pour des pics de trafic qui ont été observés sur la version japonaise de Wikipedia lors de l'accident nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi en mars 2011

Does publication bias inflate the apparent efficacy of psychological treatment for major depressive disorder? A systematic review and meta-analysis of US national institutes of health-funded trials

Background The efficacy of antidepressant medication has been shown empirically to be overestimated due to publication bias, but this has only been inferred statistically with regard to psychological treatment for depression. We assessed directly the extent of study publication bias in trials examining the efficacy of psychological treatment for depression. Methods and Findings We identified US National Institutes of Health grants awarded to fund randomized clinical trials comparing psychological treatment to control conditions or other treatments in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder for the period 1972–2008, and we determined whether those grants led to publications. For studies that were not published, data were requested from investigators and included in the meta-analyses. Thirteen (23.6%) of the 55 funded grants that began trials did not result in publications, and two others never started. Among comparisons to control conditions, adding unpublished studies (Hedges’ g = 0.20; CI95% -0.11~0.51; k = 6) to published studies (g = 0.52; 0.37~0.68; k = 20) reduced the psychotherapy effect size point estimate (g = 0.39; 0.08~0.70) by 25%. Moreover, these findings may overestimate the "true" effect of psychological treatment for depression as outcome reporting bias could not be examined quantitatively. Conclusion The efficacy of psychological interventions for depression has been overestimated in the published literature, just as it has been for pharmacotherapy. Both are efficacious but not to the extent that the published literature would suggest. Funding agencies and journals should archive both original protocols and raw data from treatment trials to allow the detection and correction of outcome reporting bias. Clinicians, guidelines developers, and decision makers should be aware that the published literature overestimates the effects of the predominant treatments for depression

Is group cognitive behaviour therapy for postnatal depression evidence-based practice? A systematic review

Background: There is evidence that psychological therapies including cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) may be effective in reducing postnatal depression (PND) when offered to individuals. In clinical practice, this is also implemented in a group therapy format, which, although not recommended in guidelines, is seen as a cost-effective alternative. To consider the extent to which group methods can be seen as evidence-based, we systematically review and synthesise the evidence for the efficacy of group CBT compared to currently used packages of care for women with PND, and we discuss further factors which may contribute to clinician confidence in implementing an intervention. Methods: Seventeen electronic databases were searched. All full papers were read by two reviewers and a third reviewer was consulted in the event of a disagreement on inclusion. Selected studies were quality assessed, using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool, were data extracted by two reviewers using a standardised data extraction form and statistically synthesised where appropriate using the fixed-effect inverse-variance method. Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses showed group CBT to be effective in reducing depression compared to routine primary care, usual care or waiting list groups. A pooled effect size of d = 0.57 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.80, p < 0.001) was observed at 10–13 weeks post-randomisation, reducing to d = 0.28 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.53, p = 0.025) at 6 months. The non-randomised comparisons against waiting list controls at 10–13 weeks was associated with a larger effect size of d = 0.94 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.47, p < 0.001). However due to the limitations of the available data, such as ill-specified definitions of the CBT component of the group programmes, these results should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions: Although the evidence available is limited, group CBT was shown to be effective. We argue, therefore, that there is sufficient evidence to implement group CBT, conditional upon routinely collected outcomes being benchmarked against those obtained in trials of individual CBT, and with other important factors such as patient preference, clinical experience, and information from the local context taken into account when making the treatment decision

Male Responses to Conspecific Advertisement Signals in the Field Cricket Gryllus rubens (Orthoptera: Gryllidae)

In many species males aggregate and produce long-range advertisement signals to attract conspecific females. The majority of the receivers of these signals are probably other males most of the time, and male responses to competitors' signals can structure the spatial and temporal organization of the breeding aggregation and affect male mating tactics. I quantified male responses to a conspecific advertisement stimulus repeatedly over three age classes in Gryllus rubens (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) in order to estimate the type and frequency of male responses to the broadcast stimulus and to determine the factors affecting them. Factors tested included body size, wing dimorphism, age, and intensity of the broadcast stimulus. Overall, males employed acoustic response more often than positive phonotactic response. As males aged, the frequency of positive phonotactic response decreased but that of the acoustic response increased. That is, males may use positive phonotaxis in the early stages of their adult lives, possibly to find suitable calling sites or parasitize calling males, and then later in life switch to acoustic responses in response to conspecific advertisement signals. Males with smaller body size more frequently exhibited acoustic responses. This study suggests that individual variation, more than any factors measured, is critical for age-dependent male responses to conspecific advertisement signals

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners and local decision makers are presented. Drawing on these data, we outline three key recommendations made by participants on how the IPCC ARs can be better utilized as a form of scientific advice to inform local decision-making on climate change. First, to provide more succinct summaries of the reports paying close attention to the language, content, clarity, context and length of these summaries; second, to better target and frame the reports from a local perspective to maximize engagement with local stakeholders; and third, to work with local decision makers to better understand how scientific advice on climate change is being incorporated in local decision-making. By adopting these, the IPCC would facilitate local decision-making on climate change and provide a systematic review of how its reports are being used locally. We discuss implications of these recommendations and their relevance to the wider debate within and outside the IPCC as to the most effective way the IPCC can more effectively tailor its products to user needs without endangering the robustness of its scientific findings. This article is published as part of a collection on scientific advice to government

A New Heterobinuclear FeIIICuII Complex with a Single Terminal FeIII–O(phenolate) Bond. Relevance to Purple Acid Phosphatases and Nucleases

A novel heterobinuclear mixed valence complex [Fe^IIICu^II(BPBPMP)(OAc)_2]ClO_4, 1, with the unsymmetrical N_5O_2 donor ligand 2-bis[{(2-pyridylmethyl)aminomethyl}-6-{(2-hydroxybenzyl)(2-pyridylmethyl)} aminomethyl]-4-methylphenol (H_2BPBPMP) has been synthesized and characterized. A combination of data from mass spectrometry, potentiometric titrations, X-ray absorption and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, as well as kinetics measurements indicates that in ethanol/water solutions an [Fe^III-(nu)OH-Cu^IIOH_2]+ species is generated which is the likely catalyst for 2,4-bis(dinitrophenyl)phosphate and DNA hydrolysis. Insofar as the data are consistent with the presence of an Fe_III-bound hydroxide acting as a nucleophile during catalysis, 1 presents a suitable mimic for the hydrolytic enzyme purple acid phosphatase. Notably, 1 is significantly more reactive than its isostructural homologues with different metal composition (Fe^IIIM^II, where M^II is Zn^II, Mn^II, Ni^II,or Fe^II). Of particular interest is the observation that cleavage of double-stranded plasmid DNA occurs even at very low concentrations of 1 (2.5 nuM), under physiological conditions (optimum pH of 7.0), with a rate enhancement of 2.7 x 10^7 over the uncatalyzed reaction. Thus, 1 is one of the most effective model complexes to date, mimicking the function of nucleases

Getting Acquainted with Kant

My question here concerns whether Kant claims that experience has nonconceptual content, or whether, on his view, experience is essentially conceptual. However there is a sense in which this debate concerning the content of intuition is ill-conceived. Part of this has to do with the terms in which the debate is set, and part to do with confusion over the connection between Kant’s own views and contemporary concerns in epistemology and the philosophy of mind. However, I think much of the substance of the debate concerning Kant’s views on the content of experience can be salvaged by reframing it in terms of a debate about the dependence relations, if any, that exist between different cognitive capacities. Below, in Section 2, I clarify the notion of ‘content’ I take to be at stake in the interpretive debate. Section 3 presents reasons for thinking that intuition cannot have content in the relevant sense. I then argue, in Section 4, that the debate be reframed in terms of dependence. We should distinguish between Intellectualism, according to which all objective representation (understood in a particular way) depends on acts of synthesis by the intellect, and Sensibilism, according to which at least some forms of objective representation are independent of any such acts (or the capacity for such acts). Finally, in Section 5, I further elucidate the cognitive role of intuition. I articulate a challenge which Kant understands alethic modal considerations to present for achieving cognition, and argue that a version of Sensibilism that construes intuition as a form of acquaintance is better positioned to answer this challenge than Intellectualism

Microarray evidence of glutaminyl cyclase gene expression in melanoma: implications for tumor antigen specific immunotherapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years encouraging progress has been made in developing vaccine treatments for cancer, particularly with melanoma. However, the overall rate of clinically significant results has remained low. The present research used microarray datasets from previous investigations to examine gene expression patterns in cancer cell lines with the goal of better understanding the tumor microenvironment. METHODS: Principal Components Analyses with Promax rotational transformations were carried out with 90 cancer cell lines from 3 microarray datasets, which had been made available on the internet as supplementary information from prior publications. RESULTS: In each of the analyses a well defined melanoma component was identified that contained a gene coding for the enzyme, glutaminyl cyclase, which was as highly expressed as genes from a variety of well established biomarkers for melanoma, such as MAGE-3 and MART-1, which have frequently been used in clinical trials of melanoma vaccines. CONCLUSION: Since glutaminyl cyclase converts glutamine and glutamic acid into a pyroglutamic form, it may interfere with the tumor destructive process of vaccines using peptides having glutamine or glutamic acid at their N-terminals. Finding ways of inhibiting the activity of glutaminyl cyclase in the tumor microenvironment may help to increase the effectiveness of some melanoma vaccines

The significance of tumour microarchitectural features in breast cancer prognosis: a digital image analysis

BACKGROUND: As only a minor portion of the information present in histological sections is accessible by eye, recognition and quantification of complex patterns and relationships among constituents relies on digital image analysis. In this study, our working hypothesis was that, with the application of digital image analysis technology, visually unquantifiable breast cancer microarchitectural features can be rigorously assessed and tested as prognostic parameters for invasive breast carcinoma of no special type. METHODS: Digital image analysis was performed using public domain software (ImageJ) on tissue microarrays from a cohort of 696 patients, and validated with a commercial platform (Visiopharm). Quantified features included elements defining tumour microarchitecture, with emphasis on the extent of tumour-stroma interface. The differential prognostic impact of tumour nest microarchitecture in the four immunohistochemical surrogates for molecular classification was analysed. Prognostic parameters included axillary lymph node status, breast cancer-specific survival, and time to distant metastasis. Associations of each feature with prognostic parameters were assessed using logistic regression and Cox proportional models adjusting for age at diagnosis, grade, and tumour size. RESULTS: An arrangement in numerous small nests was associated with axillary lymph node involvement. The association was stronger in luminal tumours (odds ratio (OR) = 1.39, p = 0.003 for a 1-SD increase in nest number, OR = 0.75, p = 0.006 for mean nest area). Nest number was also associated with survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.15, p = 0.027), but total nest perimeter was the parameter most significantly associated with survival in luminal tumours (HR = 1.26, p = 0.005). In the relatively small cohort of triple-negative tumours, mean circularity showed association with time to distant metastasis (HR = 1.71, p = 0.027) and survival (HR = 1.8, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We propose that tumour arrangement in few large nests indicates a decreased metastatic potential. By contrast, organisation in numerous small nests provides the tumour with increased metastatic potential to regional lymph nodes. An outstretched pattern in small nests bestows tumours with a tendency for decreased breast cancer-specific survival. Although further validation studies are required before the argument for routine quantification of microarchitectural features is established, our approach is consistent with the demand for cost-effective methods for triaging breast cancer patients that are more likely to benefit from chemotherapy