Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations

Slower recovery from perturbations near a tipping point and its indirect signatures in fluctuation patterns have been suggested to foreshadow catastrophes in a wide variety of systems. Recent studies of populations in the field and in the laboratory have used time-series data to confirm some of the theoretically predicted early warning indicators, such as an increase in recovery time or in the size and timescale of fluctuations. However, the predictive power of temporal warning signals is limited by the demand for long-term observations. Large-scale spatial data are more accessible, but the performance of warning signals in spatially extended systems needs to be examined empirically. Here we use spatially extended yeast populations, an experimental system with a fold bifurcation (tipping point), to evaluate early warning signals based on spatio-temporal fluctuations and to identify a novel spatial warning indicator. We found that two leading indicators based on fluctuations increased before collapse of connected populations; however, the magnitudes of the increases were smaller than those observed in isolated populations, possibly because local variation is reduced by dispersal. Furthermore, we propose a generic indicator based on deterministic spatial patterns, which we call ‘recovery length’. As the spatial counterpart of recovery time, recovery length is the distance necessary for connected populations to recover from spatial perturbations. In our experiments, recovery length increased substantially before population collapse, suggesting that the spatial scale of recovery can provide a superior warning signal before tipping points in spatially extended systems.United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH R00 GM085279-02)United States. National Institutes of Health (NIH DP2)Alfred P. Sloan FoundationNational Science Foundation (U.S.

Clinical and genetic characterisation of dystrophin-deficient muscular dystrophy in a family of Miniature Poodle dogs

Four full-sibling intact male Miniature Poodles were evaluated at 4–19 months of age. One was clinically normal and three were affected. All affected dogs were reluctant to exercise and had generalised muscle atrophy, a stiff gait and a markedly elevated serum creatine kinase activity. Two affected dogs also showed poor development, learning difficulties and episodes of abnormal behaviour. In these two dogs, investigations into forebrain structural and metabolic diseases were unremarkable; electromyography demonstrated fibrillation potentials and complex repetitive discharges in the infraspinatus, supraspinatus and epaxial muscles. Histopathological, immunohistochemical and immunoblotting analyses of muscle biopsies were consistent with dystrophin-deficient muscular dystrophy. DNA samples were obtained from all four full-sibling male Poodles, a healthy female littermate and the dam, which was clinically normal. Whole genome sequencing of one affected dog revealed a >5 Mb deletion on the X chromosome, encompassing the entire DMD gene. The exact deletion breakpoints could not be experimentally ascertained, but we confirmed that this region was deleted in all affected males, but not in the unaffected dogs. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction confirmed all three affected males were hemizygous for the mutant X chromosome, while the wildtype chromosome was observed in the unaffected male littermate. The female littermate and the dam were both heterozygous for the mutant chromosome. Forty-four Miniature Poodles from the general population were screened for the mutation and were homozygous for the wildtype chromosome. The finding represents a naturally-occurring mutation causing dystrophin-deficient muscular dystrophy in the dog

Relation between body mass index and depression: a structural equation modeling approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity and depression are two major diseases which are associated with many other health problems such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure in patients with systolic hypertension, low bone mineral density and increased mortality. Both diseases share common health complications but there are inconsistent findings concerning the relationship between obesity and depression. In this work we used the <it>structural equation modeling </it>(SEM) technique to examine the relation between body mass index (BMI), as a proxy for obesity, and depression using the Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 1.2.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this SEM model we postulate that 1) BMI and depression are directly related, 2) BMI is directly affected by the physical activity and, 3)depression is directly influenced by stress. SEM was also used to assess the relation between BMI and depression separately for males and females.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results indicate that higher BMI is associated with more severe form of depression. On the other hand, the more severe form of depression may result in less weight gain. However, the association between depression and BMI is gender dependent. In males, the higher BMI may result in a more severe form of depression while in females the relation may not be the same. Also, there was a negative relationship between physical activity and BMI.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In general, use of SEM method showed that the two major diseases, obesity and depression, are associated but the form of the relation is different among males and females. More research is necessary to further understand the complexity of the relationship between obesity and depression. It also demonstrated that SEM is a feasible technique for modeling the relation between obesity and depression.</p

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified

Review of epidemiologic data on the debate over smokeless tobacco's role in harm reduction

Some tobacco researchers have argued that the European Union should remove its ban on a form of low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco referred to as Swedish 'snus'. This argument has developed in to an international debate over the use of smokeless tobacco as a measure of harm reduction for smokers. Leading authorities in the USA have firmly stated that there is no safe tobacco - a message which does not allow for any discussion of comparative tobacco risks. This commentary is intended to review the origin of the controversy over Swedish 'snus', to examine briefly the meta-analysis on cancer risks by Peter Lee and Jan Hamling (published in July in BMC Medicine) and to discuss the anticipated direction of the debate on tobacco-harm reduction in the USA. We anticipate that much of the debate will shift from the discussion of epidemiologic data to the discussion of the marketing, health communication and economics of smokeless tobacco. While the Food and Drug Administration's newly approved authority over tobacco will undoubtedly affect the smokeless products, it may not be the sole determinant of harm reduction's fate in the USA

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Impact of infection with human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV) on the risk of cancer among children in Malawi - preliminary findings

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The impact of infection with HIV on the risk of cancer in children is uncertain, particularly for those living in sub-Saharan Africa. In an ongoing study in a paediatric oncology centre in Malawi, children (aged ≤ 15 years) with known or suspected cancers are being recruited and tested for HIV and their mothers or carers interviewed. This study reports findings for children recruited between 2005 and 2008.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Only children with a cancer diagnosis were included. Odds ratios (OR) for being HIV positive were estimated for each cancer type (with adjustment for age (<5 years, ≥ 5 years) and sex) using children with other cancers and non-malignant conditions as a comparison group (excluding the known HIV-associated cancers, Kaposi sarcoma and lymphomas, as well as children with other haematological malignancies or with confirmed non-cancer diagnoses).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 586 children recruited, 541 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and 525 (97%) were tested for HIV. Overall HIV seroprevalence was 10%. Infection with HIV was associated with Kaposi sarcoma (29 cases; OR = 93.5, 95% CI 26.9 to 324.4) and with non-Burkitt, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (33 cases; OR = 4.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 17.9) but not with Burkitt lymphoma (269 cases; OR = 2.2, 95% CI 0.8 to 6.4).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, only Kaposi sarcoma and non-Burkitt, non-Hodgkin lymphoma were associated with HIV infection. The endemic form of Burkitt lymphoma, which is relatively frequent in Malawi, was not significantly associated with HIV. While the relatively small numbers of children with other cancers, together with possible limitations of diagnostic testing may limit our conclusions, the findings may suggest differences in the pathogenesis of HIV-related malignancies in different parts of the world.</p

Extensive field evidence for the release of HONO from the photolysis of nitrate aerosols

Particulate nitrate (pNO−3 ) has long been considered a permanent sink for NOx (NO and NO2), removing a gaseous pollutant that is central to air quality and that influences the global self-cleansing capacity of the atmosphere. Evidence is emerging that photolysis of pNO−3 can recycle HONO and NOx back to the gas phase with potentially important implications for tropospheric ozone and OH budgets; however, there are substantial discrepancies in “renoxification” photolysis rate constants. Using aircraft and ground-based HONO observations in the remote Atlantic troposphere, we show evidence for renoxification occurring on mixed marine aerosols with an efficiency that increases with relative humidity and decreases with the concentration of pNO−3 , thus largely reconciling the very large discrepancies in renoxification photolysis rate constants found across multiple laboratory and field studies. Active release of HONO from aerosol has important implications for atmospheric oxidants such as OH and O3 in both polluted and clean environments

The Relevance of Fatalism in the Study of Latinas’ Cancer Screening Behavior: A Systematic Review of the Literature

# The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Background Fatalism has been identified as a dominant belief among Latinos and is believed to act as a barrier to cancer prevention. However, controversy exists over the utility of the construct in explaining health disparities experienced by disadvantaged populations above the influence of structural barriers such as low socioeconomic status (SES) and limited access to health care. Purpose This paper reviews the empirical research on fatalism and Latinas ’ participation in cancer screening in an attempt to determine whether fatalism predicts participation in cancer screening after accounting for structural barriers