Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

Prostacyclin reverses platelet stress fibre formation causing platelet aggregate instability

Prostacyclin (PGI2) modulates platelet activation to regulate haemostasis. Evidence has emerged to suggest that thrombi are dynamic structures with distinct areas of differing platelet activation. It was hypothesised that PGI2 could reverse platelet spreading by actin cytoskeletal modulation, leading to reduced capability of platelet aggregates to withstand a high shear environment. Our data demonstrates that post-flow of PGI2 over activated and spread platelets on fibrinogen, identified a significant reduction in platelet surface area under high shear. Exploration of the molecular mechanisms underpinning this effect revealed that PGI2 reversed stress fibre formation in adherent platelets, reduced platelet spreading, whilst simultaneously promoting actin nodule formation. The effects of PGI2 on stress fibres were mimicked by the adenylyl cyclase activator forskolin and prevented by inhibitors of protein kinase A (PKA). Stress fibre formation is a RhoA dependent process and we found that treatment of adherent platelets with PGI2 caused inhibitory phosphorylation of RhoA, reduced RhoA GTP-loading and reversal of myosin light chain phosphorylation. Phospho-RhoA was localised in actin nodules with PKA type II and a number of other phosphorylated PKA substrates. This study demonstrates that PGI2 can reverse key platelet functions after their initial activation and identifies a novel mechanism for controlling thrombosis

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Inducible Cre recombinase activity in mouse mature astrocytes and adult neural precursor cells

Two transgenic mouse lines expressing an inducible form of the Cre recombinase (CreERTM) under the control of the human GFAP promoter have been generated and characterized. In adult mice, expression of the fusion protein is largely confined to astrocytes in all regions of the central nervous system. Minimal spontaneous Cre activity was detected and recombination was efficiently induced by intraperitoneal administration of tamoxifen in adult mice. The pattern of recombination closely mirrored that of transgene expression. The percentage of astrocytes undergoing recombination varied from region to region ranging from 35% to 70% while a much smaller portion (<1%) of oligodendrocytes and neural precursor cells showed evidence of Cre activity. These mouse lines will provide important tools to dissect gene function in glial cells and in gliomagenesis

Antibody-based protection against HIV infection by vectored immunoprophylaxis

Despite tremendous efforts, development of an effective vaccine against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has proved an elusive goal. Recently, however, numerous antibodies have been identified that are capable of neutralizing most circulating HIV strains. These antibodies all exhibit an unusually high level of somatic mutation, presumably owing to extensive affinity maturation over the course of continuous exposure to an evolving antigen. Although substantial effort has focused on the design of immunogens capable of eliciting antibodies de novo that would target similar epitopes, it remains uncertain whether a conventional vaccine will be able to elicit analogues of the existing broadly neutralizing antibodies. As an alternative to immunization, vector-mediated gene transfer could be used to engineer secretion of the existing broadly neutralizing antibodies into the circulation. Here we describe a practical implementation of this approach, which we call vectored immunoprophylaxis (VIP), which in mice induces lifelong expression of these monoclonal antibodies at high concentrations from a single intramuscular injection. This is achieved using a specialized adeno-associated virus vector optimized for the production of full-length antibody from muscle tissue. We show that humanized mice receiving VIP appear to be fully protected from HIV infection, even when challenged intravenously with very high doses of replication-competent virus. Our results suggest that successful translation of this approach to humans may produce effective prophylaxis against HIV

Prognostic factors for patients with hepatic metastases from breast cancer

Median survival from liver metastases secondary to breast cancer is only a few months, with very rare 5-year survival. This study reviewed 145 patients with liver metastases from breast cancer to determine factors that may influence survival. Data were analysed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves, univariate and multivariate analysis. Median survival was 4.23 months (range 0.16–51), with a 27.6% 1-year survival. Factors that significantly predicted a poor prognosis on univariate analysis included symptomatic liver disease, deranged liver function tests, the presence of ascites, histological grade 3 disease at primary presentation, advanced age, oestrogen receptor (ER) negative tumours, carcinoembryonic antigen of over 1000 ng ml−1 and multiple vs single liver metastases. Response to treatment was also a significant predictor of survival with patients responding to chemo- or endocrine therapy surviving for a median of 13 and 13.9 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis of pretreatment variables identified a low albumin, advanced age and ER negativity as independent predictors of poor survival. The time interval between primary and metastatic disease, metastases at extrahepatic sites, histological subtype and nodal stage at primary presentation did not predict prognosis. Awareness of the prognostic implications of the above factors may assist in selecting the most appropriate treatment for these patients

Search for the neutral Higgs bosons of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for neutral Higgs bosons of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is reported. The analysis is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data were recorded in 2011 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb-1 to 4.8 fb-1. Higgs boson decays into oppositely-charged muon or τ lepton pairs are considered for final states requiring either the presence or absence of b-jets. No statistically significant excess over the expected background is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived. The exclusion limits are for the production cross-section of a generic neutral Higgs boson, φ, as a function of the Higgs boson mass and for h/A/H production in the MSSM as a function of the parameters mA and tan β in the mhmax scenario for mA in the range of 90GeV to 500 GeV. Copyright CERN

The South, the suburbs, and the Vatican too: explaining partisan change among Catholics

This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual’s social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000

A five-year retrospective study of the epidemiological characteristics and visual outcomes of patients hospitalized for ocular trauma in a Mediterranean area

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine the epidemiological characteristics and visual outcome of ocular trauma in southern Italy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All cases of ocular trauma admitted to Department of Ophthalmology of Palermo University, Italy, from January 2001–December 2005 were retrospectively reviewed for open- or closed-globe injury (OGI or CGI). Data extracted included age, sex, residence, initial and final visual acuity (VA), cause and treatment of injury, hospitalization. The injuries were classified by Ocular Trauma Classification System (OTCS) and Birmingham Eye Trauma Terminology (BETT). We also referred to the Ocular Trauma Score (OTS) in evaluating the final visual outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 298 eyes, there were 146 OGI and 152 CGI. Fifty eyes (16.8%) had an intraocular foreign body (IOFB). The annual incidence of eye injuries was 4.9 per 100,000. Most injuries occurred in men (84.6%, p < 0.0005), with an average age of 33.0 vs. 49.9 for women (p = 0.005). Cause of injury differed significantly by gender (p = 0.001) and urban vs. rural location (p = 0.009). The most frequent causes in men were outdoor activities related injuries (30.9%), work-related (25.4%), and sport-related (17.5%), and in women were home-related (52.2%) and outdoor activities related injuries (30.4%). In urban areas, road accidents were more frequent; in rural areas, work-related injuries were more frequent with a greater rate of IOFBs than in urban areas (p = 0.002).</p> <p>The incidence of OGI and CGI differed in work-related injuries (p < 0.0005), sport-related injuries (p < 0.0005), and assaults (p = 0.033). The final visual acuity was 20/40 (6/12) or better in 144 eyes (48.3%), 20/40–20/200 (6/12–6/60) in 90 eyes (30.2%), and <20/200 (6/60) or less in 46 eyes (15.5%). Eighteen eyes (6%) had a final acuity of no light perception. Of those eyes that presented with hand motion vision or better, 220 (86.6%) had a final vision of better than 20/200 (6/60). Initial visual acuity was found to be correlated with final visual acuity (Spearman's correlation coefficient = 0.658; p < 0.001). The likelihood of the final visual acuities in the OTS categories was correlated to that of the OTS study group in 12 of 14 cases (85.7%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This analysis provides insight into the epidemiology of patients hospitalized for ocular trauma. The findings indicate that ocular trauma is a significant cause of visual loss in this population.</p