Weather research and forecasting model simulations of extended warm-season heavy precipitation episode over the US southern great plains: Data assimilation and microphysics sensitivity experiments

This study examines eight microphysics schemes (Lin, WSM5, Eta, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, WDM5, WDM6) in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) for their reproduction of observed strong convection over the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) for three heavy precipitation events of 27-31 May 2001. It also assesses how observational analysis nudging (OBNUD), threedimensional (3DVAR) and four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation (DA) affect simulated cloud properties relative to simulations with no DA (CNTRL). Primary evaluation data were cloud radar reflectivity measurements by the millimetre cloud radar (MMCR) at the Central Facility (CF) of the SGP site of the ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF). All WRF-ARW microphysics simulations reproduce the intensity and vertical structure of the first two major MMCR-observed storms, although the first simulated storm initiates a few hours earlier than observed. Of three organised convective events, the model best identifies the timing and vertical structure of the second storm more than 50 hours into the simulation. For this wellsimulated cloud structure, simulated reflectivities are close to the observed counterparts in the mid- and upper troposphere, and only overestimate observed cloud radar reflectivity in the lower troposphere by less than 10 dBZ. Based on relative measures of skill, no single microphysics scheme excels in all aspects, although the WDM schemes show much-improved frequency bias scores (FBSs) in the lower troposphere for a range of reflectivity thresholds. The WDM6 scheme has improved FBSs and high simulated-observed reflectivity correlations in the lower troposphere, likely due to its large production of liquid water immediately below the melting level. Of all the DA experiments, 3DVAR has the lowest mean errors (MEs) and root mean-squared errors (RMSEs), although both the 3DVAR and 4DVAR simulations reduced noticeably the MEs for seven of eight microphysics schemes relative to CNTRL. Lower-tropospheric θe and convective available potential energy (CAPE) also are closer to the observations for the 4DVAR than CNTRL simulations. © 2013 Z. T. Segele et al

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of ethiopia/horn of Africa monsoon. Part II: Statistical multimodel ensemble rainfall predictions

© 2015 American Meteorological Society. An ensemble-based multiple linear regression technique is developed to assess the predictability of regional and national June-September (JJAS) anomalies and local monthly rainfall totals for Ethiopia. The ensemble prediction approach captures potential predictive signals in regional circulations and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) two to three months in advance of the monsoon season. Sets of 20 potential predictors are selected from visual assessments of correlation maps that relate rainfall with regional and global predictors. Individual predictors in each set are utilized to initialize specific forward stepwise regression models to develop ensembles of equal number of statistical model estimates, which allow quantifying prediction uncertainties related to individual predictors and models. Prediction skill improvement is achieved through error minimization afforded by the ensemble. For retroactive validation (RV), the ensemble predictions reproduce well the observed all-Ethiopian JJAS rainfall variability two months in advance. The ensemble mean prediction outperforms climatology, with mean square error reduction (SSClim) of 62%. The skill of the prediction remains high for leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), with the observed-predicted correlation r (SSClim) being +0.81 (65%) for 1970-2002. For tercile predictions (below, near, and above normal), the ranked probability skill score is 0.45, indicating improvement compared to climatological forecasts. Similarly high prediction skill is found for local prediction of monthly rainfall total at Addis Ababa (r = +0.72) and Combolcha (r = +0.68), and for regional prediction of JJAS standardized rainfall anomalies for northeastern Ethiopia (r = +0.80). Compared to the previous generation of rainfall forecasts, the ensemble predictions developed in this paper show substantial value to benefit society

Cluster analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclones

© 2014 Published by Elsevier B.V. Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic (NA) basin pose an annual risk to coastal regions, with hurricane Katrina (2005) the costliest TC in US history. This study employs K-means cluster analysis (CA) to detect the distinctive, important NA TC paths and lifecycles. Unlike previous TC cluster analyses, which examined TC tracks, the present work documents TC genesis and decay locations. Application of the silhouette coefficient provided an objective method to determine the optimal number of clusters (7 for genesis locations, 6 for preferred tracks, and 5 for decay locations). Additionally, silhouette coefficients provided the information necessary to remove storms that did not fit specific clusters, improving cluster cohesiveness. For TC genesis, K-means CA captured the separation between tropical and higher-latitude TCs. Clustering of genesis points identifies formative areas. The western NA cluster is the most active. TCs have distinct decay locations, notably in the western NA, Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. Clustering TC tracks reveals that TCs moving to higher latitudes recurve generally, whereas Caribbean and Gulf coast TCs have straight-line tracks. Temporally, early season TC clusters form in the western Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and western NA. Midseason TC clusters shift eastward, extending from the tropical NA to Africa. Late season TC clusters recur in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and western NA

Pre-transplant CDKN2A expression in kidney biopsies predicts renal function and is a future component of donor scoring criteria

CDKN2A is a proven and validated biomarker of ageing which acts as an off switch for cell proliferation. We have demonstrated previously that CDKN2A is the most robust and the strongest pre-transplant predictor of post- transplant serum creatinine when compared to “Gold Standard” clinical factors, such as cold ischaemic time and donor chronological age. This report shows that CDKN2A is better than telomere length, the most celebrated biomarker of ageing, as a predictor of post-transplant renal function. It also shows that CDKN2A is as strong a determinant of post-transplant organ function when compared to extended criteria (ECD) kidneys. A multivariate analysis model was able to predict up to 27.1% of eGFR at one year post-transplant (p = 0.008). Significantly, CDKN2A was also able to strongly predict delayed graft function. A pre-transplant donor risk classification system based on CDKN2A and ECD criteria is shown to be feasible and commendable for implementation in the near future

Cryotomography of budding influenza a virus reveals filaments with diverse morphologies that mostly do not bear a genome at their distal end

Influenza viruses exhibit striking variations in particle morphology between strains. Clinical isolates of influenza A virus have been shown to produce long filamentous particles while laboratory-adapted strains are predominantly spherical. However, the role of the filamentous phenotype in the influenza virus infectious cycle remains undetermined. We used cryo-electron tomography to conduct the first three-dimensional study of filamentous virus ultrastructure in particles budding from infected cells. Filaments were often longer than 10 microns and sometimes had bulbous heads at their leading ends, some of which contained tubules we attribute to M1 while none had recognisable ribonucleoprotein (RNP) and hence genome segments. Long filaments that did not have bulbs were infrequently seen to bear an ordered complement of RNPs at their distal ends. Imaging of purified virus also revealed diverse filament morphologies; short rods (bacilliform virions) and longer filaments. Bacilliform virions contained an ordered complement of RNPs while longer filamentous particles were narrower and mostly appeared to lack this feature, but often contained fibrillar material along their entire length. The important ultrastructural differences between these diverse classes of particles raise the possibility of distinct morphogenetic pathways and functions during the infectious process

Transmutations and spectral parameter power series in eigenvalue problems

We give an overview of recent developments in Sturm-Liouville theory concerning operators of transmutation (transformation) and spectral parameter power series (SPPS). The possibility to write down the dispersion (characteristic) equations corresponding to a variety of spectral problems related to Sturm-Liouville equations in an analytic form is an attractive feature of the SPPS method. It is based on a computation of certain systems of recursive integrals. Considered as families of functions these systems are complete in the $L_{2}$-space and result to be the images of the nonnegative integer powers of the independent variable under the action of a corresponding transmutation operator. This recently revealed property of the Delsarte transmutations opens the way to apply the transmutation operator even when its integral kernel is unknown and gives the possibility to obtain further interesting properties concerning the Darboux transformed Schr\"{o}dinger operators. We introduce the systems of recursive integrals and the SPPS approach, explain some of its applications to spectral problems with numerical illustrations, give the definition and basic properties of transmutation operators, introduce a parametrized family of transmutation operators, study their mapping properties and construct the transmutation operators for Darboux transformed Schr\"{o}dinger operators.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1111.444

Access to recreational physical activities by car and bus : an assessment of socio-spatial inequalities in mainland Scotland

Obesity and other chronic conditions linked with low levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with deprivation. One reason for this could be that it is more difficult for low-income groups to access recreational PA facilities such as swimming pools and sports centres than high-income groups. In this paper, we explore the distribution of access to PA facilities by car and bus across mainland Scotland by income deprivation at datazone level. GIS car and bus networks were created to determine the number of PA facilities accessible within travel times of 10, 20 and 30 minutes. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were then used to investigate the distribution of the number of accessible facilities, adjusting for datazone population size and local authority. Access to PA facilities by car was significantly (p<0.01) higher for the most affluent quintile of area-based income deprivation than for most other quintiles in small towns and all other quintiles in rural areas. Accessibility by bus was significantly lower for the most affluent quintile than for other quintiles in urban areas and small towns, but not in rural areas. Overall, we found that the most disadvantaged groups were those without access to a car and living in the most affluent areas or in rural areas

Antagonism between Gdf6a and retinoic acid pathways controls timing of retinal neurogenesis and growth of the eye in zebrafish.

Maintaining neurogenesis in growing tissues requires a tight balance between progenitor cell proliferation and differentiation. In the zebrafish retina, neuronal differentiation proceeds in two stages with embryonic retinal progenitor cells (RPCs) of the central retina accounting for the first rounds of differentiation, and stem cells from the ciliary marginal zone (CMZ) being responsible for late neurogenesis and growth of the eye. In this study, we analyse two mutants with small eyes that display defects during both early and late phases of retinal neurogenesis. These mutants carry lesions in gdf6a, a gene encoding a BMP family member previously implicated in dorsoventral patterning of the eye. We show that gdf6a mutant eyes exhibit expanded retinoic acid (RA) signalling and demonstrate that exogenous activation of this pathway in wild-type eyes inhibits retinal growth, generating small eyes with a reduced CMZ and fewer proliferating progenitors, similar to gdf6a mutants. We provide evidence that RA regulates the timing of RPC differentiation by promoting cell cycle exit. Furthermore, reducing RA signalling in gdf6a mutants re-establishes appropriate timing of embryonic retinal neurogenesis and restores putative stem and progenitor cell populations in the CMZ. Together, our results support a model in which dorsally expressed gdf6a limits RA pathway activity to control the transition from proliferation to differentiation in the growing eye

Protocol for: Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT): A randomised controlled trial of exercise therapy and mental health outcomes in obese adolescents [ISRCNT83888112]

Background While obesity is known to have many physiological consequences, the psychopathology of this condition has not featured prominently in the literature. Cross-sectional studies have indicated that obese children have increased odds of experiencing poor quality of life and mental health. However, very limited trial evidence has examined the efficacy of exercise therapy for enhancing mental health outcomes in obese children, and the Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT) will provide evidence of the efficacy of supervised exercise therapy in obese young people aged 11–16 years versus usual care and an attention-control intervention. Method/design SHOT is a randomised controlled trial where obese young people are randomised to receive; (1) exercise therapy, (2) attention-control intervention (involving body-conditioning exercises and games that do not involve aerobic activity), or (3) usual care. The exercise therapy and attention-control sessions will take place three times per week for eight weeks and a six-week home programme will follow this. Ninety adolescents aged between 11–16 years referred from a children's hospital for evaluation of obesity or via community advertisements will need to complete the study. Participants will be recruited according to the following criteria: (1) clinically obese and aged 11–16 years (Body Mass Index Centile > 98th UK standard) (2) no medical condition that would restrict ability to be active three times per week for eight weeks and (3) not diagnosed with insulin dependent diabetes or receiving oral steroids. Assessments of outcomes will take place at baseline, as well as four (intervention midpoint) and eight weeks (end of intervention) from baseline. Participants will be reassessed on outcome measures five and seven months from baseline. The primary endpoint is physical self-perceptions. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, self-perceptions, depression, affect, aerobic fitness and BMI