Demand forecasting: a case study in the food industry

The use of forecasting methods is nowadays regarded as a business ally since it supports both the operational and the strategic decision-making processes. This paper is based on a research project aiming the development of demand forecasting models for a company (designated here by PR) that operates in the food business, more specifically in the delicatessen segment. In particular, we focused on demand forecasting models that can serve as a tool to support production planning and inventory management at the company. The analysis of the company’s operations led to the development of a new demand forecasting tool based on a combination of forecasts, which is now being used and tested by the company.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/201

Solving discrete logarithms on a 170-bit MNT curve by pairing reduction

Pairing based cryptography is in a dangerous position following the breakthroughs on discrete logarithms computations in finite fields of small characteristic. Remaining instances are built over finite fields of large characteristic and their security relies on the fact that the embedding field of the underlying curve is relatively large. How large is debatable. The aim of our work is to sustain the claim that the combination of degree 3 embedding and too small finite fields obviously does not provide enough security. As a computational example, we solve the DLP on a 170-bit MNT curve, by exploiting the pairing embedding to a 508-bit, degree-3 extension of the base field.Comment: to appear in the Lecture Notes in Computer Science (LNCS

A comprehensive 1000 Genomes-based genome-wide association meta-analysis of coronary artery disease

Existing knowledge of genetic variants affecting risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) is largely based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) analysis of common SNPs. Leveraging phased haplotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project, we report a GWAS meta-analysis of 185 thousand CAD cases and controls, interrogating 6.7 million common (MAF>0.05) as well as 2.7 million low frequency (0.005<MAF<0.05) variants. In addition to confirmation of most known CAD loci, we identified 10 novel loci, eight additive and two recessive, that contain candidate genes that newly implicate biological processes in vessel walls. We observed intra-locus allelic heterogeneity but little evidence of low frequency variants with larger effects and no evidence of synthetic association. Our analysis provides a comprehensive survey of the fine genetic architecture of CAD showing that genetic susceptibility to this common disease is largely determined by common SNPs of small effect siz

Modeling growth, lipid accumulation and lipid turnover in submerged batch cultures of Umbelopsis isabellina

The production of lipids by oleaginous yeast and fungi becomes more important because these lipids can be used for biodiesel production. To understand the process of lipid production better, we developed a model for growth, lipid production and lipid turnover in submerged batch fermentation. This model describes three subsequent phases: exponential growth when both a C-source and an N-source are available, carbohydrate and lipid production when the N-source is exhausted and turnover of accumulated lipids when the C-source is exhausted. The model was validated with submerged batch cultures of the fungus Umbelopsis isabellina (formerly known as Mortierella isabellina) with two different initial C/N-ratios. Comparison with chemostat cultures with the same strain showed a significant difference in lipid production: in batch cultures, the initial specific lipid production rate was almost four times higher than in chemostat cultures but it decreased exponentially in time, while the maximum specific lipid production rate in chemostat cultures was independent of residence time. This indicates that different mechanisms for lipid production are active in batch and chemostat cultures. The model could also describe data for submerged batch cultures from literature well

Interaction of catechol O-methyltransferase and serotonin transporter genes modulates effective connectivity in a facial emotion-processing circuitry

Imaging genetic studies showed exaggerated blood oxygenation level-dependent response in limbic structures in carriers of low activity alleles of serotonin transporter-linked promoter region (5-HTTLPR) as well as catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT) genes. This was suggested to underlie the vulnerability to mood disorders. To better understand the mechanisms of vulnerability, it is important to investigate the genetic modulation of frontal-limbic connectivity that underlies emotional regulation and control. In this study, we have examined the interaction of 5-HTTLPR and COMT genetic markers on effective connectivity within neural circuitry for emotional facial expressions. A total of 91 healthy Caucasian adults underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging experiments with a task presenting dynamic emotional facial expressions of fear, sadness, happiness and anger. The effective connectivity within the facial processing circuitry was assessed with Granger causality method. We have demonstrated that in fear processing condition, an interaction between 5-HTTLPR (S) and COMT (met) low activity alleles was associated with reduced reciprocal connectivity within the circuitry including bilateral fusiform/inferior occipital regions, right superior temporal gyrus/superior temporal sulcus, bilateral inferior/middle prefrontal cortex and right amygdala. We suggest that the epistatic effect of reduced effective connectivity may underlie an inefficient emotion regulation that places these individuals at greater risk for depressive disorders

Cancer survivors’ experiences of a community-based cancer-specific exercise programme: results of an exploratory survey

Purpose Exercise levels often decline following cancer diagnosis despite growing evidence of its benefits. Treatment side-effects, older age, lack of confidence and opportunity to exercise with others in similar circumstances influence this. Our study explored the experiences of people attending a cancer-specific community-based exercise programme (CU Fitter™). Methods A survey distributed to those attending the programme gathered demographic/clinical information, self-reported exercise levels, information provision and barriers to/benefits of exercise. Results Sixty surveys were evaluable from 65/100 returned (62% female, 68% >60yrs, 66% breast/prostate cancer). Most (68%) were receiving treatment. 68% attended classes once or twice weekly. 55% received exercise advice after diagnosis, usually from their hospital doctor/nurse. More (73%) had read about exercising, but less used the internet to source information (32%). Self-reported exercise levels were higher currently than before diagnosis (p=0.05). 48% said their primary barrier to exercising was the physical impact of cancer/treatment. Improving fitness/health (40%) and social support (16%) were the most important gains from the programme. Many (67%) had made other lifestyle changes and intented to keep (50%), or increase (30%) exercising. Conclusions This community-based cancer-specific exercise approach engaged people with cancer and showed physical, psychological, and social benefits. Implications for cancer survivors Community grown exercise initiatives bring cancer survivors together creating their own supportive environment. Combining this with instructors familiar with the population and providing an open-ended service may prove particularly motivating and beneficial. Further work is required to provide evidence for this

Using Management Objectives to Specify Management Information Systems - A Contribution to MIS Success

Data warehouse projects, today, are in an ambivalent situation. On the one hand, data warehouses are critical for a company’s success and various methodological and technological tools are sophisticatedly developed to implement them. On the other hand, a significant amount of data warehouse projects fails due to non-technical reasons such as insufficient management support or in-corporative employees. But management support and user participation can be increased dramatically with specification methods that are understandable to these user groups. This paper aims at overcoming possible non-technical failure reasons by introducing a user-adequate specification approach within the field of management information systems.\u

Steroid Concentrations in Plasma, Whole Blood and Brain: Effects of Saline Perfusion to Remove Blood Contamination from Brain

The brain and other organs locally synthesize steroids. Local synthesis is suggested when steroid levels are higher in tissue than in the circulation. However, measurement of both circulating and tissue steroid levels are subject to methodological considerations. For example, plasma samples are commonly used to estimate circulating steroid levels in whole blood, but steroid levels in plasma and whole blood could differ. In addition, tissue steroid measurements might be affected by blood contamination, which can be addressed experimentally by using saline perfusion to remove blood. In Study 1, we measured corticosterone and testosterone (T) levels in zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) plasma, whole blood, and red blood cells (RBC). We also compared corticosterone in plasma, whole blood, and RBC at baseline and after 60 min restraint stress. In Study 2, we quantified corticosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), T, and 17β-estradiol (E2) levels in the brains of sham-perfused or saline-perfused subjects. In Study 1, corticosterone and T concentrations were highest in plasma, significantly lower in whole blood, and lowest in RBC. In Study 2, saline perfusion unexpectedly increased corticosterone levels in the rostral telencephalon but not other regions. In contrast, saline perfusion decreased DHEA levels in caudal telencephalon and diencephalon. Saline perfusion also increased E2 levels in caudal telencephalon. In summary, when comparing local and systemic steroid levels, the inclusion of whole blood samples should prove useful. Moreover, blood contamination has little or no effect on measurement of brain steroid levels, suggesting that saline perfusion is not necessary prior to brain collection. Indeed, saline perfusion itself may elevate and lower steroid concentrations in a rapid, region-specific manner