Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

Modern African nuclear detector laboratory: Development of state-of-the-art in-house detector facility at the University of the Western Cape

The upcoming detector facility aims at developing new state-of-the-art particle detectors as well as providing hands-on training to postgraduate students using both analog and digital signal processing from nuclear radiation detectors. The project is two-fold and aims at developing: 1) ancillary detectors to be coupled with the new GAMKA array at iThemba LABS. Of particular interest to our group is the determination of nuclear shapes, which depend on the hyperfine splitting of magnetic substates; 2) PET scanners for cancer imaging using a cheaper technology. Performance of NaI(Tl) inorganic scintillator detectors has been evaluated using PIXIE-16 modules from XIA digital electronics. Gamma-ray energy spectra were acquired from 60Co and 137Cs radioactive sources to calculate the detector resolution as well as to optimize the digital parameters. The present study focuses on improving and optimizing the slow and fast filter parameters for NaI(Tl) detectors which can eventually be used in the list mode of data aquisition

Effect of compost-, sand-, or gypsum-amended waste foundry sands on turfgrass yield and nutrient content

To prevent the 7 to 11 million metric tons of waste foundry sand (WFS) produced annually in the USA from entering landfi lls, current research is focused on the reuse of WFSs as soil amendments. Th e eff ects of diff erent WFS-containing amendments on turfgrass growth and nutrient content were tested by planting perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and tall fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub) in diff erent blends containing WFS. Blends of WFS were created with compost or acid-washed sand (AWS) at varying percent by volume with WFS or by amendment with gypsum (9.6 g gypsum kg–1 WFS). Measurements of soil strength, shoot and root dry weight, plant surface coverage, and micronutrients (Al, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, B, Na) and macronutrients (N, P, K, S, Ca, Mg) were performed for each blend and compared with pure WFS and with a commercial potting media control. Results showed that strength was not a factor for any of the parameters studied, but the K/Na base saturation ratio of WFS:compost mixes was highly correlated with total shoot dry weight for perennial ryegrass (r = 0.995) and tall fescue (r = 0.94). Th is was further substantiated because total shoot dry weight was also correlated with shoot K/Na concentration of perennial ryegrass (r = 0.99) and tall fescue (r = 0.95). A compost blend containing 40% WFS was determined to be the optimal amendment for the reuse of WFS because it incorporated the greatest possible amount of WFS without major reduction in turfgrass growth

Integrating sequence and array data to create an improved 1000 Genomes Project haplotype reference panel

A major use of the 1000 Genomes Project (1000GP) data is genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we develop a method to estimate haplotypes from low-coverage sequencing data that can take advantage of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray genotypes on the same samples. First the SNP array data are phased to build a backbone (or 'scaffold') of haplotypes across each chromosome. We then phase the sequence data 'onto' this haplotype scaffold. This approach can take advantage of relatedness between sequenced and non-sequenced samples to improve accuracy. We use this method to create a new 1000GP haplotype reference set for use by the human genetic community. Using a set of validation genotypes at SNP and bi-allelic indels we show that these haplotypes have lower genotype discordance and improved imputation performance into downstream GWAS samples, especially at low-frequency variants. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe