A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND: The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. METHODS: The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. RESULTS: The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. CONCLUSION: The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events

Bank ownership and efficiency in the aftermath of financial crises : evidence from Indonesia

This paper examines the relationship between types of ownership of banks and their efficiency in the aftermath of a financial crisis using Greene's “true” panel data stochastic frontier model, which takes into account unobserved heterogeneity among banks. The Indonesian banking sector is analyzed using financial data of 144 banks operating in Indonesia over the period of 2000Q4–2005Q2. In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the cost efficiency of all banks improves over time on average. However, there is some evidence that, as these banks improve their efficiency, state-owned banks are the least efficient banks while joint-venture and foreign-owned banks are the most efficient.Published versio

Regional obesity determinants in the United States: a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption

Obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the United States today. The premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods, i.e., an increased consumption of sugars, leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats. The latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index (BMI), but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners. Based on our results, a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the American population. Our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of BMI, and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the United States. Copyright (c)2008 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

Growth, integration, and regional disparities in the European Union

In this paper we challenge the ability of the conventional methods initiated by Barro and Sala-i-Martin in the early 1990s to detect actual convergence or divergence trends across countries or regions and suggest an alternative dynamic framework of analysis, which allows for a better understanding of the forces in operation. With the use of a SURE model and time-series data for eight European Union (EU) member states, we test directly for the validity of two competing hypotheses: the neoclassical (NC) convergence hypothesis originating in the work of Solow and the cumulative causation hypothesis stemming from Myrdal’s theories. We also account for changes in the external environment, such as the role of European integration on the level of regional disparities. Our findings indicate that both short-term divergence and long-term convergence processes coexist. Regional disparities are reported to follow a procyclical pattern, as dynamic and developed regions grow faster in periods of expansion and slower in periods of recession. At the same time, significant spread effects are also in operation, partly offsetting the cumulative impact of growth on space. Similar results are obtained from the estimation of an intra-EU model of disparities at the national level, indicating that the forces in operation are independent of the level of aggregation. Our findings challenge the view of economic growth as the main driver for a reduction of regional disparities and contribute to the growing scientific evidence that points towards the need to rethink current EU-wide regional development policies