Fluctuation scaling in complex systems: Taylor's law and beyond

Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average activity. This relationship is often of the form "$fluctuations \approx const.\times average^\alpha$", where the exponent $\alpha$ is predominantly in the range $[1/2, 1]$. This power law has been observed in a very wide range of disciplines, ranging from population dynamics through the Internet to the stock market and it is often treated under the names \emph{Taylor's law} or \emph{fluctuation scaling}. This review attempts to show how general the above scaling relationship is by surveying the literature, as well as by reporting some new empirical data and model calculations. We also show some basic principles that can underlie the generality of the phenomenon. This is followed by a mean-field framework based on sums of random variables. In this context the emergence of fluctuation scaling is equivalent to some corresponding limit theorems. In certain physical systems fluctuation scaling can be related to finite size scaling.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Advances in Physic

Transkingdom Networks: A Systems Biology Approach to Identify Causal Members of Host-Microbiota Interactions

Improvements in sequencing technologies and reduced experimental costs have resulted in a vast number of studies generating high-throughput data. Although the number of methods to analyze these "omics" data has also increased, computational complexity and lack of documentation hinder researchers from analyzing their high-throughput data to its true potential. In this chapter we detail our data-driven, transkingdom network (TransNet) analysis protocol to integrate and interrogate multi-omics data. This systems biology approach has allowed us to successfully identify important causal relationships between different taxonomic kingdoms (e.g. mammals and microbes) using diverse types of data

Effect of Body Mass Index on pregnancy outcomes in nulliparous women delivering singleton babies

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Support and Assessment for Fall Emergency Referrals (SAFER 1) trial protocol. Computerised on-scene decision support for emergency ambulance staff to assess and plan care for older people who have fallen: evaluation of costs and benefits using a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

Background: Many emergency ambulance calls are for older people who have fallen. As half of them are left at home, a community-based response may often be more appropriate than hospital attendance. The SAFER 1 trial will assess the costs and benefits of a new healthcare technology - hand-held computers with computerised clinical decision support (CCDS) software - to help paramedics decide who needs hospital attendance, and who can be safely left at home with referral to community falls services. Methods/Design: Pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a qualitative component. We shall allocate 72 paramedics ('clusters') at random between receiving the intervention and a control group delivering care as usual, of whom we expect 60 to complete the trial. Patients are eligible if they are aged 65 or older, live in the study area but not in residential care, and are attended by a study paramedic following an emergency call for a fall. Seven to 10 days after the index fall we shall offer patients the opportunity to opt out of further follow up. Continuing participants will receive questionnaires after one and 6 months, and we shall monitor their routine clinical data for 6 months. We shall interview 20 of these patients in depth. We shall conduct focus groups or semi-structured interviews with paramedics and other stakeholders. The primary outcome is the interval to the first subsequent reported fall (or death). We shall analyse this and other measures of outcome, process and cost by 'intention to treat'. We shall analyse qualitative data thematically. Discussion: Since the SAFER 1 trial received funding in August 2006, implementation has come to terms with ambulance service reorganisation and a new national electronic patient record in England. In response to these hurdles the research team has adapted the research design, including aspects of the intervention, to meet the needs of the ambulance services. In conclusion this complex emergency care trial will provide rigorous evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CCDS for paramedics in the care of older people who have fallen

Quantum dynamics in strong fluctuating fields

A large number of multifaceted quantum transport processes in molecular systems and physical nanosystems can be treated in terms of quantum relaxation processes which couple to one or several fluctuating environments. A thermal equilibrium environment can conveniently be modelled by a thermal bath of harmonic oscillators. An archetype situation provides a two-state dissipative quantum dynamics, commonly known under the label of a spin-boson dynamics. An interesting and nontrivial physical situation emerges, however, when the quantum dynamics evolves far away from thermal equilibrium. This occurs, for example, when a charge transferring medium possesses nonequilibrium degrees of freedom, or when a strong time-dependent control field is applied externally. Accordingly, certain parameters of underlying quantum subsystem acquire stochastic character. Herein, we review the general theoretical framework which is based on the method of projector operators, yielding the quantum master equations for systems that are exposed to strong external fields. This allows one to investigate on a common basis the influence of nonequilibrium fluctuations and periodic electrical fields on quantum transport processes. Most importantly, such strong fluctuating fields induce a whole variety of nonlinear and nonequilibrium phenomena. A characteristic feature of such dynamics is the absence of thermal (quantum) detailed balance.Comment: review article, Advances in Physics (2005), in pres

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force consensus proposal: Medical treatment of canine epilepsy in Europe

In Europe, the number of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) licensed for dogs has grown considerably over the last years. Nevertheless, the same questions remain, which include, 1) when to start treatment, 2) which drug is best used initially, 3) which adjunctive AED can be advised if treatment with the initial drug is unsatisfactory, and 4) when treatment changes should be considered. In this consensus proposal, an overview is given on the aim of AED treatment, when to start long-term treatment in canine epilepsy and which veterinary AEDs are currently in use for dogs. The consensus proposal for drug treatment protocols, 1) is based on current published evidence-based literature, 2) considers the current legal framework of the cascade regulation for the prescription of veterinary drugs in Europe, and 3) reflects the authors’ experience. With this paper it is aimed to provide a consensus for the management of canine idiopathic epilepsy. Furthermore, for the management of structural epilepsy AEDs are inevitable in addition to treating the underlying cause, if possible

The impact of Cochrane Systematic Reviews : a mixed method evaluation of outputs from Cochrane Review Groups supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research

© 2014 Bunn et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: There has been a growing emphasis on evidence-informed decision making in health care. Systematic reviews, such as those produced by the Cochrane Collaboration, have been a key component of this movement. The UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Systematic Review Programme currently supports 20 Cochrane Review Groups (CRGs). The aim of this study was to identify the impacts of Cochrane reviews published by NIHR funded CRGs during the years 2007-11. Methods: We sent questionnaires to CRGs and review authors, interviewed guideline developers and used bibliometrics and documentary review to get an overview of CRG impact and to evaluate the impact of a sample of 60 Cochrane reviews. We used a framework with four categories (knowledge production, research targeting, informing policy development, and impact on practice/services). Results: A total of 1502 new and updated reviews were produced by the 20 NIHR funded CRGs between 2007-11. The clearest impacts were on policy with a total of 483 systematic reviews cited in 247 sets of guidance; 62 were international, 175 national (87 from the UK) and 10 local. Review authors and CRGs provided some examples of impact on practice or services, for example safer use of medication, the identification of new effective drugs or treatments and potential economic benefits through the reduction in the use of unproven or unnecessary procedures. However, such impacts are difficult to objectively document and the majority of reviewers were unsure if their review had produced specific impacts. Qualitative data suggested that Cochrane reviews often play an instrumental role in informing guidance although a poor fit with guideline scope or methods, reviews being out of date and a lack of communication between CRGs and guideline developers were barriers to their use. Conclusions: Health and economic impacts of research are generally difficult to measure. We found that to be the case with this evaluation. Impacts on knowledge production and clinical guidance were easier to identify and substantiate than those on clinical practice. Questions remain about how we define and measure impact and more work is needed to develop suitable methods for impact analysis.Peer reviewe

Selection at a single locus leads to widespread expansion of toxoplasma gondii lineages that are virulent in mice

The determinants of virulence are rarely defined for eukaryotic parasites such as T. gondii, a widespread parasite of mammals that also infects humans, sometimes with serious consequences. Recent laboratory studies have established that variation in a single secreted protein, a serine/threonine kinase known as ROPO18, controls whether or not mice survive infection. Here, we establish the extent and nature of variation in ROP18among a collection of parasite strains from geographically diverse regions. Compared to other genes, ROP18 showed extremely high levels of diversification and changes in expression level, which correlated with severity of infection in mice. Comparison with an out-group demonstrated that changes in the upstream region that regulates expression of ROP18 led to an historical increase in the expression and exposed the protein to diversifying selective pressure. Surprisingly, only three atypically distinct protein variants exist despite marked genetic divergence elsewhere in the genome. These three forms of ROP18 are likely adaptations for different niches in nature, and they confer markedly different virulence to mice. The widespread distribution of a single mouse-virulent allele among geographically and genetically disparate parasites may have consequences for transmission and disease in other hosts, including humans

Assessing Walking Ability in People with HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy Using the 10 Meter Timed Walk and the 6 Minute Walk Test

Five to ten million persons, are infected by HTLV-1 of which 3% will develop HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (HAM) a chronic, disabling inflammation of the spinal cord. Walking, a fundamental, complex, multi-functional task is demanding of multiple body systems. Restricted walking ability compromises activity and participation levels in people with HAM (pwHAM). Therapy aims to improve mobility but validated measures are required to assess change.Prospective observational study.To explore walking capacity in pwHAM, walking endurance using the 6 minute walk (6MW), and gait speed, using the timed 10m walk (10mTW).Out-patient setting in an inner London Teaching hospital.Prospective documentation of 10mTW and 6MW distance; walking aid usage and pain scores measured twice, a median of 18 months apart.Data analysis was completed for twenty-six pwHAM, (8♂; 18♀; median age: 57.8 years; median disease duration: 8 years). Median time at baseline to: complete 10m was 17.5 seconds, versus 21.4 seconds at follow up; 23% completed the 6MW compared to 42% at follow up and a median distance of 55m was covered compared to 71m at follow up. Using the 10mTW velocity to predict the 6MW distance, overestimated the distance walked in 6 minutes (p<0.01). Functional decline over time was captured using the functional ambulation categories.The 10mTW velocity underestimated the degree of disability. Gait speed usefully predicts functional domains, shows direction of functional change and comparison with published healthy age matched controls show that these patients have significantly slower gait speeds. The measured differences over 18 months were sufficient to reliably detect change and therefore these assessments can be useful to detect improvement or deterioration within broader disability grades. Walking capacity in pwHAM should be measured using the 10mTW for gait speed and the 6MW for endurance

Parasite fate and involvement of infected cells in the induction of CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses to Toxoplasma gondii

During infection with the intracellular parasite Toxoplasma gondii, the presentation of parasite-derived antigens to CD4+ and CD8+ T cells is essential for long-term resistance to this pathogen. Fundamental questions remain regarding the roles of phagocytosis and active invasion in the events that lead to the processing and presentation of parasite antigens. To understand the most proximal events in this process, an attenuated non-replicating strain of T. gondii (the cpsII strain) was combined with a cytometry-based approach to distinguish active invasion from phagocytic uptake. In vivo studies revealed that T. gondii disproportionately infected dendritic cells and macrophages, and that infected dendritic cells and macrophages displayed an activated phenotype characterized by enhanced levels of CD86 compared to cells that had phagocytosed the parasite, thus suggesting a role for these cells in priming naïve T cells. Indeed, dendritic cells were required for optimal CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, and the phagocytosis of heat-killed or invasion-blocked parasites was not sufficient to induce T cell responses. Rather, the selective transfer of cpsII-infected dendritic cells or macrophages (but not those that had phagocytosed the parasite) to naïve mice potently induced CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, and conferred protection against challenge with virulent T. gondii. Collectively, these results point toward a critical role for actively infected host cells in initiating T. gondii-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses