Probleme der schätzung der herdenheritabilität am beispiel der Schwarzbuntzucht Niedersachsens

International audienc

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Endometrial carcinoma risk among women diagnosed with endometrial hyperplasia: the 34-year experience in a large health plan

Classifying endometrial hyperplasia (EH) according to the severity of glandular crowding (simple hyperplasia (SH) vs complex hyperplasia (CH)) and nuclear atypia (simple atypical hyperplasia (SAH) vs complex atypical hyperplasia (CAH)) should predict subsequent endometrial carcinoma risk, but data on progression are lacking. Our nested case–control study of EH progression included 138 cases, who were diagnosed with EH and then with carcinoma (1970–2003) at least 1 year (median, 6.5 years) later, and 241 controls, who were individually matched on age, date, and follow-up duration and counter-matched on EH classification. After centralised pathology panel and medical record review, we generated rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for treatment and repeat biopsies. With disordered proliferative endometrium (DPEM) as the referent, AH significantly increased carcinoma risk (RR=14, 95% CI, 5–38). Risk was highest 1–5 years after AH (RR=48, 95% CI, 8–294), but remained elevated 5 or more years after AH (RR=3.5, 95% CI, 1.0–9.6). Progression risks for SH (RR=2.0, 95% CI, 0.9–4.5) and CH (RR=2.8, 95% CI, 1.0–7.9) were substantially lower and only slightly higher than the progression risk for DPEM. The higher progression risks for AH could foster management guidelines based on markedly different progression risks for atypical vs non-atypical EH

Money for Nothing? A Call for Empirical Evaluation of Biodiversity Conservation Investments

The field of conservation policy must adopt state-of-the-art program evaluation methods to determine what works, and when, if we are to stem the global decline of biodiversity and improve the effectiveness of conservation investments

PRM38 Estimation of a Markov Chain for Crohn's Disease and Classification of Patients Into Disease Phenotypes, in Eight Countries Using Individual Longitudinal Data Aggregated Over Time

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Diet-Induced Muscle Insulin Resistance Is Associated With Extracellular Matrix Remodeling and Interaction With Integrin α2β1 in Mice

OBJECTIVE: The hypothesis that high-fat (HF) feeding causes skeletal muscle extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling in C57BL/6J mice and that this remodeling contributes to diet-induced muscle insulin resistance (IR) through the collagen receptor integrin α(2)β(1) was tested. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The association between IR and ECM remodeling was studied in mice fed chow or HF diet. Specific genetic and pharmacological murine models were used to study effects of HF feeding on ECM in the absence of IR. The role of ECM-integrin interaction in IR was studied using hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamps on integrin α(2)β(1)-null (itga2(-/-)), integrin α(1)β(1)-null (itga1(-/-)), and wild-type littermate mice fed chow or HF. Integrin α(2)β(1) and integrin α(1)β(1) signaling pathways have opposing actions. RESULTS: HF-fed mice had IR and increased muscle collagen (Col) III and ColIV protein; the former was associated with increased transcript, whereas the latter was associated with reduced matrix metalloproteinase 9 activity. Rescue of muscle IR by genetic muscle-specific mitochondria-targeted catalase overexpression or by the phosphodiesterase 5a inhibitor, sildenafil, reversed HF feeding effects on ECM remodeling and increased muscle vascularity. Collagen remained elevated in HF-fed itga2(-/-) mice. Nevertheless, muscle insulin action and vascularity were increased. Muscle IR in HF-fed itga1(-/-) mice was unchanged. Insulin sensitivity in chow-fed itga1(-/-) and itga2(-/-) mice was not different from wild-type littermates. CONCLUSIONS: ECM collagen expansion is tightly associated with muscle IR. Studies with itga2(-/-) mice provide mechanistic insight for this association by showing that the link between muscle IR and increased collagen can be uncoupled by the absence of collagen-integrin α(2)β(1) interaction

Factors associated with disease evolution in Greek patients with inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND: The majority of Crohn's disease patients with B1 phenotype at diagnosis (i.e. non-stricturing non-penetrating disease) will develop over time a stricturing or a penetrating pattern. Conflicting data exist on the rate of proximal disease extension in ulcerative colitis patients with proctitis or left-sided colitis at diagnosis. We aimed to study disease evolution in Crohn's disease B1 patients and ulcerative colitis patients with proctitis and left-sided colitis at diagnosis. METHODS: 116 Crohn's disease and 256 ulcerative colitis patients were followed-up for at least 5 years after diagnosis. Crohn's disease patients were classified according to the Vienna criteria. Data were analysed actuarially. RESULTS: B1 phenotype accounted for 68.9% of Crohn's disease patients at diagnosis. The cumulative probability of change in disease behaviour in B1 patients was 43.6% at 10 years after diagnosis. Active smoking (Hazard Ratio: 3.01) and non-colonic disease (non-L2) (Hazard Ratio: 3.01) were associated with behavioural change in B1 patients. Proctitis and left-sided colitis accounted for 24.2%, and 48.4% of ulcerative colitis patients at diagnosis. The 10 year cumulative probability of proximal disease extension in patients with proctitis and left-sided colitis was 36.8%, and 17.1%, respectively (p: 0.003). Among proctitis patients, proximal extension was more common in non-smokers (Hazard Ratio: 4.39). CONCLUSION: Classification of Crohn's disease patients in B1 phenotype should be considered as temporary. Smoking and non-colonic disease are risk factors for behavioural change in B1 Crohn's disease patients. Proximal extension is more common in ulcerative colitis patients with proctitis than in those with left-sided colitis. Among proctitis patients, proximal extension is more common in non-smokers