A new determination of the orbit and masses of the Be binary system delta Scorpii

The binary star delta Sco (HD143275) underwent remarkable brightening in the visible in 2000, and continues to be irregularly variable. The system was observed with the Sydney University Stellar Interferometer (SUSI) in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006 and 2007. The 1999 observations were consistent with predictions based on the previously published orbital elements. The subsequent observations can only be explained by assuming that an optically bright emission region with an angular size of > 2 +/- 1 mas formed around the primary in 2000. By 2006/2007 the size of this region grew to an estimated > 4 mas. We have determined a consistent set of orbital elements by simultaneously fitting all the published interferometric and spectroscopic data as well as the SUSI data reported here. The resulting elements and the brightness ratio for the system measured prior to the outburst in 2000 have been used to estimate the masses of the components. We find Ma = 15 +/- 7 Msun and Mb = 8.0 +/- 3.6 Msun. The dynamical parallax is estimated to be 7.03 +/- 0.15 mas, which is in good agreement with the revised HIPPARCOS parallax.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figs. Accepted for publication in MNRA

MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Does antibacterial treatment for urinary tract infection contribute to the risk of breast cancer?

Low lignan status has been reported to be related to an elevated risk of breast cancer. Since lignan status is reduced by antibacterial medications, it is plausible to hypothesize that repeated use of antibiotics may also be a risk factor for breast cancer. History of treatment for urinary tract infection was studied for its prediction of breast cancer among 9461 Finnish women 19–89 years of age and initially cancer-free. During a follow-up in 1973–1991, a total of 157 breast cancer cases were diagnosed. Women reporting previous or present medication for urinary tract infection at baseline showed an elevated breast cancer risk in comparison with other women. The age-adjusted relative risk was 1.34 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98–1.83). The association was concentrated to women under 50 years of age. The relative risk for these women was 1.74 (95% CI 1.13–2.68), whereas it was 0.97 (95% CI 0.59–1.58) for older women. The relative risk in the younger age-group was 1.47 (95% CI 0.73–2.97) during the first 10 years of follow-up, and 1.93 (95% CI 1.11–3.37) for follow-up times longer than 10 years. These data suggest that premenopausal women using long-term medication for urinary tract infections show a possible elevated risk of future breast cancer. The results are, however, still inconclusive and the hypothesis needs to be tested by other studies. © 2000 Cancer ResearchCampaig

Challenges of Religious Literacy in Education : Islam and the Governance of Religious Diversity in Multi-faith Schools

This chapter seeks take part in an emerging research where religion is approached as a whole school endeavor. Previous research and policy recommendations typically focused on teaching about religion in school, but the accommodation of religious diversity in the wider school culture merits more attention. Based on observations in our multiple case studies, we discuss the multi-level governance of religious diversity in Finnish multi-faith schools with a particular focus on the challenges of religious literacy for educators. The three examples we present focus on the inclusion of Muslims in Finnish schools and in particular on the challenges for educator (1) in interpreting the distinction between religion and culture, (2) in recognizing and handling intra-religious diversity, and (3) in being aware of Protestant conceptions of religion and culture. A theme cutting across these examples is how they reflect the tendencies either to see different situations merely through the lens of religion (religionisation), or not to recognize the importance of religion at all (religion-blindness). We argue that religious literacy should be recognized and developed as a vital part of the intercultural competencies of educators.Peer reviewe

Denitrifying microbial communities along a boreal stream with varying land-use

Streams have an important role in regulating nitrogen (N) transportation from terrestrial ecosystems to downstream waters. Here, we examined how catchment land-use affects potential denitrification rates and the function and composition of denitrifier communities in boreal stream sediments, using stable isotope incubations and qPCR and 454-pyrosequencing targeted on nirS, nirK and nosZ genes. Although land-use influenced the water chemistry as higher nitrite+nitrate (NOx)-concentration at the agriculture-affected sampling point, sediment organic matter content was found to be the key factor in regulating potential denitrification rates. However, the abundance as well as the diversity and community composition of denitrifying microbes, and genetic N2O production potential (the ratio between nirS+nirK and nosZ gene abundances) were connected to both NOx- and sediment quality. Overall, our results suggest that catchment land-use-driven changes in N and carbon availability affect the denitrification rates, and possibly N-2:N2O production ratio, in boreal streams, through altering denitrifier abundance and community composition.Peer reviewe

PAC-Bayesian Bounds for Randomized Empirical Risk Minimizers

The aim of this paper is to generalize the PAC-Bayesian theorems proved by Catoni in the classification setting to more general problems of statistical inference. We show how to control the deviations of the risk of randomized estimators. A particular attention is paid to randomized estimators drawn in a small neighborhood of classical estimators, whose study leads to control the risk of the latter. These results allow to bound the risk of very general estimation procedures, as well as to perform model selection

Costs of screening for prostate cancer : Evidence from the Finnish Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer after 20-year follow-up using register data

Objectives: Few empirical analyses of the impact of organised prostate cancer (PCa) screening on healthcare costs exist, despite cost-related information often being considered as a prerequisite to informed screening decisions. Therefore, we estimate the differences in register-based costs of publicly funded healthcare in the two arms of the Finnish Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (FinRSPC) after 20 years. Methods: We obtained individual-level register data on prescription medications, as well as inpatient and outpatient care, to estimate healthcare costs for 80,149 men during the first 20 years of the FinRSPC. We compared healthcare costs for the men in each trial arm and performed statistical analysis. Results: For all men diagnosed with PCa during the 20-year observation period, mean PCa-related costs appeared to be around 10% lower in the screening arm (SA). Mean all-cause healthcare costs for these men were also lower in the SA, but differences were smaller than for PCa-related costs alone, and no longer statistically significant. For men dying from PCa, although the difference was not statistically significant, mean all-cause healthcare costs were around 10% higher. When analysis included all observations, cumulative costs were slightly higher in the CA; however, after excluding extreme values, cumulative costs were slightly higher in the SA. Conclusions: No major cost impacts due to screening were apparent, but the FinRSPC's 20-year follow-up period is too short to provide definitive evidence at this stage. Longer term follow-up will be required to be better informed about the costs of, or savings from, introducing mass PCa screening. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Candidatus Methylumidiphilus Drives Peaks in Methanotrophic Relative Abundance in Stratified Lakes and Ponds Across Northern Landscapes

Boreal lakes and ponds produce two-thirds of the total natural methane emissions above the latitude of 50 degrees North. These lake emissions are regulated by methanotrophs which can oxidize up to 99% of the methane produced in the sediments and the water column. Despite their importance, the diversity and distribution of the methanotrophs in lakes are still poorly understood. Here, we used shotgun metagenomic data to explore the diversity and distribution of methanotrophs in 40 oxygen-stratified water bodies in boreal and subarctic areas in Europe and North America. In our data, gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs (order Methylococcales) generally dominated the methanotrophic communities throughout the water columns. A recently discovered lineage of Methylococcales, Candidatus Methylumidiphilus, was present in all the studied water bodies and dominated the methanotrophic community in lakes with a high relative abundance of methanotrophs. Alphaproteobacterial methanotrophs were the second most abundant group of methanotrophs. In the top layer of the lakes, characterized by low CH4 concentration, their abundance could surpass that of the gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs. These results support the theory that the alphaproteobacterial methanotrophs have a high affinity for CH4 and can be considered stress-tolerant strategists. In contrast, the gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs are competitive strategists. In addition, relative abundances of anaerobic methanotrophs, Candidatus Methanoperedenaceae and Candidatus Methylomirabilis, were strongly correlated, suggesting possible co-metabolism. Our data also suggest that these anaerobic methanotrophs could be active even in the oxic layers. In non-metric multidimensional scaling, alpha- and gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs formed separate clusters based on their abundances in the samples, except for the gammaproteobacterial Candidatus Methylumidiphilus, which was separated from these two clusters. This may reflect similarities in the niche and environmental requirements of the different genera within alpha- and gammaproteobacterial methanotrophs. Our study confirms the importance of O-2 and CH4 in shaping the methanotrophic communities and suggests that one variable cannot explain the diversity and distribution of the methanotrophs across lakes. Instead, we suggest that the diversity and distribution of freshwater methanotrophs are regulated by lake-specific factors

Detecting periodicity in experimental data using linear modeling techniques

Fourier spectral estimates and, to a lesser extent, the autocorrelation function are the primary tools to detect periodicities in experimental data in the physical and biological sciences. We propose a new method which is more reliable than traditional techniques, and is able to make clear identification of periodic behavior when traditional techniques do not. This technique is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (autoregressive) models so that only the essential features of an autoregressive model are retained. These models we call reduced autoregressive models (RARM). The essential features of reduced autoregressive models include any periodicity present in the data. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence from both experimental and artificial data, to demonstrate that this technique will reliably detect periodicities if and only if they are present in the data. There are strong information theoretic arguments to support the statement that RARM detects periodicities if they are present. Surrogate data techniques are used to ensure the converse. Furthermore, our calculations demonstrate that RARM is more robust, more accurate, and more sensitive, than traditional spectral techniques.Comment: 10 pages (revtex) and 6 figures. To appear in Phys Rev E. Modified styl

Algorithmic statistics revisited

The mission of statistics is to provide adequate statistical hypotheses (models) for observed data. But what is an "adequate" model? To answer this question, one needs to use the notions of algorithmic information theory. It turns out that for every data string $x$ one can naturally define "stochasticity profile", a curve that represents a trade-off between complexity of a model and its adequacy. This curve has four different equivalent definitions in terms of (1)~randomness deficiency, (2)~minimal description length, (3)~position in the lists of simple strings and (4)~Kolmogorov complexity with decompression time bounded by busy beaver function. We present a survey of the corresponding definitions and results relating them to each other