Charged di-boson production at the LHC in a 4-site model with a composite Higgs boson

We investigate the scope of the LHC in probing the parameter space of a 4-site model supplemented by one composite Higgs state, assuming all past, current and future energy and luminosity stages of the CERN machine. We concentrate on the yield of charged di-boson production giving two opposite-charge different-flavour leptons and missing (transverse) energy, i.e., events induced via the subprocess $q\bar q\to e^+\nu_e \mu^-\bar\nu_\mu$ + ${\rm{c.c.}}$, which enables the production in the intermediate step of all additional neutral and charged gauge bosons belonging to the spectrum of this model, some of which in resonant topologies. We find this channel accessible over the background at all LHC configurations after a dedicated cut-based analysis. We finally compare the yield of the di-boson mode to that of Drell-Yan processes and establish that they have complementary strengths, one covering regions of parameter space precluded to the others and vice versa.Comment: 36 pages, 13 figures, 13 table

The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea.

Many cities and countries have implemented heat wave warning systems to combat the health effects of extreme heat. Little is known about whether these systems actually reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality. We examined the effectiveness of heat wave alerts and health plans in reducing the mortality risk of heat waves in Korea by utilizing the discrepancy between the alerts and the monitored temperature. A difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting was used. Mortality, weather monitoring, and heat wave alert announcement data were collected for 7 major cities during 2009-2014. Results showed evidence of risk reduction among people aged 19-64 without education (-0.144 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: -0.227, -0.061) and children aged 0-19 (-0.555 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: -0.993, -0.117). Decreased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found in several subgroups including single persons, widowed people, blue-collar workers, people with no education or the highest level of education (university or higher). No evidence was found for decreased all-cause mortality in the population (1.687 deaths/1,000,000 people per day; 95% CI: 1.118, 2.255). In conclusion, heat wave alerts may reduce mortality for several causes and subpopulations of age and socio-economic status. Further work needs to examine the pathways through which the alerts impact subpopulations differently

The effects of the covid-19 pandemic on the mass market retailing of wine in Italy

The purpose of this study was to provide a detailed framework of wine purchases in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The unexpected diffusion of the virus and the restrictions imposed in Italy to prevent its spread have significantly affected the food purchasing habits of consumers. By analyzing the scanner data of the wine sales in the Italian mass market retail channel, this study was intended to show whether and how the dynamics triggered by the pandemic have modified the overall value and type of wine purchases, focusing on prices, formats, and promotional sales. In particular, this study explores sales in two separate periods, namely March–April (the “lockdown”, with general compulsory closing and severe restrictions) and June–July 2020 (the “post-lockdown”, in which some limitations were no longer effective). The analysis of wine sales during lockdown and post-lockdown and the study of the variations compared to the sales of the previous years showed some significant changes in purchase behavior. The results could provide managers, researchers, and policy makers with extensive insights into the purchasing patterns of consumers during this unprecedented time and reveal trends that may characterize the structure of the future wine demand

Underestimation of Standard Errors in Multi-Site Time Series Studies

Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average

A Spatio-Temporal Approach for Estimating Chronic Effects of Air Pollution

Estimating the health risks associated with air pollution exposure is of great importance in public health. In air pollution epidemiology, two study designs have been used mainly. Time series studies estimate acute risk associated with short-term exposure. They compare day-to-day variation of pollution concentrations and mortality rates, and have been criticized for potential confounding by time-varying covariates. Cohort studies estimate chronic effects associated with long-term exposure. They compare long-term average pollution concentrations and time-to-death across cities, and have been criticized for potential confounding by individual risk factors or city-level characteristics. We propose a new study design and a statistical model, which use spatio-temporal information to estimate the long-term effects of air pollution exposure on life expectancy. Our approach avoids confounding by time-varying covariates and individual or city-level risk factors. By estimating the increase in life expectancy due to decreases in long-term air pollution concentrations, it provides easily interpretable values for public policy purposes. We develop a suitable backfitting algorithm that permits efficient fitting of our model to large spatio-temporal data sets. We evaluate spatio-temporal correlation in the data and obtain appropriate standard errors. We apply our methods to the Medicare Cohort Air Pollution Study, including data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality for 18.2 million Medicare enrollees from 814 locations in the U.S. during an average of 65 months in 2000-2006. Supplemental material including R code implementing our methods is provided in a web appendix

OS ORDENAMENTOS LEGAIS DO MUNICÍPIO DE SÃO LUÍS-MA: O ESPORTE E O LAZER EM FOCO

Os direitos sociais, consagrados em diversas normas legais, são imprescindíveis à dignidade humana, pois promovem o bem-estar e desenvolvem habilidades do indivíduo e da coletividade.Este artigo é parte do resultado de um projeto de pesquisa desenvolvido pela Rede Cedes/UFMA, com o objetivo de identificar a existência de políticas públicas voltadas para esporte e lazer no Município de São Luís-MA. Serviu de base para análise, a Lei Orgânica, o Plano Diretor e Plano Plurianual do Município de São Luís, assim como a lei de regulamentação do Conselho Municipal de Esporte. Foi constatado que o esporte e o lazer foram tratados pelas leis municipais de São Luís, de forma genérica, de maneira que não garantem o estabelecimento de políticas públicas sistematizadas para o setor.Rede CEDE

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS

Time-Series Studies of Particulate Matter

Studies of air pollution and human health have evolved from descriptive studies of the early phenomena of large increases in adverse health effects following extreme air pollution episodes, to time-series analyses and the development of sophisticated regression models. In fact, advanced statistical methods are necessary to address the many challenges inherent in the detection of a small pollution risk in the presence of many confounders. This paper reviews the history, methods, and findings of the time-series studies estimating health risks associated with short-term exposure to particulate matter, though much of the discussion is applicable to epidemiological studies of air pollution in general. We review the critical role of epidemiological studies in setting regulatory standards and the history of PM epidemiology and time-series analysis. We also summarize recent time-series results and conclude with a discussion of current and future directions of time-series analysis of particulates, including research on mortality displacement and the resolution of results from cohort and time-series studies