Perbandingan Analisis Trend dan Holt Double Eksponensial Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Angka Kematian Bayi di Jawa Timur

Forecasting is needed to determine when an event will happen so the exact decision can be implemented. Time series analysis is an exact approach for forecasting a variable in the future, and it will be implemented for infant mortality data in East Java. The trend analysis and Holt double exponential smoothing are time series methods that be used to forecast infant mortality rate in East Java in the future systematicallyand statistically. The objective of this research was to compare the forecasting result of both methods to select which method can forecast infant mortality rate of East Java accurately according to the smallest MAPE. This research used secondary data of infant mortality rate in East Java started at 1995 until 2005, which were taken from National Survey for Social Economic (Susenas) data by Center of Statistical Board (BPS)of East Java. The data were analyzed by using trend analysis, Holt double exponential smoothing, and computer program. According to the result of research, the trend analysis (linear) method had found MAPE 3,88%, and the MAPE of Holt double exponential smoothing method 4,96%, so the conclusion of this result that found the best method of forecasting infant mortality rate in East Java was trend analysis (linear) method with the smallest MAPE. The result hopped can be useful as idea and early information for the planning of health care program in order to decrease infant mortality rate in East Java. To have accurate result should evaluate the re-prediction in short time.Key words: trend analysis, Holt double exponential smoothing, forecasting, infant mortality rat

Deep UV Luminosity Functions at the Infall Region of the Coma Cluster

We have used deep GALEX observations at the infall region of the Coma cluster to measure the faintest UV luminosity functions (LFs) presented for a rich galaxy cluster thus far. The Coma UV LFs are measured to M_UV = -10.5 in the GALEX FUV and NUV bands, or 3.5 mag fainter than previous studies, and reach the dwarf early-type galaxy population in Coma for the first time. The Schechter faint-end slopes (alpha = -1.39 in both GALEX bands) are shallower than reported in previous Coma UV LF studies owing to a flatter LF at faint magnitudes. A Gaussian-plus-Schechter model provides a slightly better parametrization of the UV LFs resulting in a faint-end slope of ~ -1.15 in both GALEX bands. The two-component model gives faint-end slopes shallower than -1 (a turnover) for the LFs constructed separately for passive and star forming galaxies. The UV LFs for star forming galaxies show a turnover at M_UV ~ -14 owing to a deficit of dwarf star forming galaxies in Coma with stellar masses below M*=10^8 Msun. A similar turnover is identified in recent UV LFs measured for the Virgo cluster suggesting this may be a common feature of local galaxy clusters, whereas the field UV LFs continue to rise at faint magnitudes. We did not identify an excess of passive galaxies as would be expected if the missing dwarf star forming galaxies were quenched inside the cluster. In fact, the LFs for both dwarf passive and star forming galaxies show the same turnover at faint magnitudes. We discuss the possible origin of the missing dwarf star forming galaxies in Coma and their expected properties based on comparisons to local field galaxies.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Studi Kasus Pekerjaan Produksi Dan Pemasangan Dinding Precast Pada Proyek Apartemen

Kesuksesan suatu proyek konstruksi dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor. Salah satunya adalah manajemen sumber daya, baik material maupun tenaga kerja. Hal ini dapat ditinjau dari besarnya produktivitas masing - masing pekerjaan.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur besarnya produktivitas pekerjaan dinding precast pada 2 tower yang berbeda dalam proses produksi maupun pemasangan. Metode yang digunakan untuk mengukur produktivitas adalah pengamatan langsung di lapangan. Dari data tersebut lalu dilakukan analisis dengan metode Level of Effort sehingga dapat diketahui nilai produktivitas harian (daily productivity) pada masing - masing pekerjaan.Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa pada tower X, daily productivity pekerjaan produksi sebesar 3,529 m2/manday sedangkan pemasangan sebesar 3,631 buah /manday. Pada tower Y untuk pekerjaan produksi sebesar 3,485 m2/manday dan pekerjaan pemasangan sebesar 6,605 buah/manda

Sindroma Metabolik di Kota Jayapura

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the world is expected to further increase in recent times, due to changes in lifestyle of the people, but not much data about metabolic syndrome in Indonesia and Papua. Research was needed to complete the database. The aim of this study was to identity the proportion of the metabolic syndrome in Jayapura. A descriptive and cross sectional study was intended in Jayapura City from MarchOctober in 2012. The number of 1,200 subjects were selected with consecutive sampling. As obtained from 1200 subjects, 407 (33.9%) were metabolic syndrome, a lot were in the age group > 46 years (42.1%), 333 were female (36.7% of the total female subjects). metabolic syndrome was higher in Papuan subjects (38.5%), in primary school education level (44.7%), and in housewife (44.1%). A sustainable education is needed to raise public health awareness. Keywords: metabolic syndrome, Jayapura, PapuaAbstrakPrevalensi sindroma metabolik di dunia diperkirakan makin meningkat dalam waktu belakangan ini, berkaitan dengan Perubahan pola hidup masyarakat. Mendapatkan proporsi sindroma metabolik di Kota Jayapura sebagai penelitian awal untuk penelitian-penelitian sindroma metabolik selanjutnya. Jenis penelitian deskriptif dan bersifat cross sectional, berlokasi di Kota Jayapura. Jumlah subjek 1200 orang, yang dipilih secara consecutive sampling, berdasarkan wilayah kerja puskesmas di Kota Jayapura, antara bulan Maret-Oktober 2012. Dari 1200 subjek didapat sebanyak 407 orang (33.9%) yang menderita sindroma metabolik, kebanyakan pada kelompok usia 46 tahun ke atas 42,1% dan terbanyak pada perempuan 333 orang (27,7% dari total subjek). Sindroma metabolik pada kelompok suku Papua lebih besar (38.5%) dibandingkan dengan kelompok suku Non Papua (31,6). Pada subjek dengan pendidikan sekolah dasar dan pada kelompok pekerjaan ibu rumah tangga masing-masing 44,7% dan 44,1%, P (0,001). Suatu upaya edukasi tentang pentingnya pencegahan maupun penanganan sindroma metabolik diperlukan untuk meningkatkan kepedulian masyarakat.Kata kunci: sindroma metabolik, Jayapura, Papu

Konfirmasi Anopheles Sinensis dan Anopheles Vagus sebagai Vektor Malaria di Kabupaten Muara Enim Provinsi Sumatera Selatan

. Muara Enim Regency is one of endemic malaria area in South Sumatera Province. The number of malaria clinical cases in 2015 is 9.382 cases with positive confirmed by microscopy is 143 cases (Annual parasite incidence = 0,26%o). There were no information or publication confirmed the vector of malaria in this regency. The aims of this study was to confirm species of Anopheles as malaria vector and its biting behavior in Muara Enim Regency. The study carried out two activity that were mosquito collection (indoor and outdoor) starts from 18.00 hours until 06.00 in the morning, and survey of the breeding habitat of pre-adult mosquito. The total of Anopheles mosquitoes collected were 1.443 and 200 mosquitoes were prepared for sporozoit identification by ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) method. Two species of Anopheles (of four mosquitoes), Anopheles sinensis and An. vagus, were confirmed sporozoit positive. Anopheles sinensis tends to bite outdoors while An. vagus prefer indoors. Both species actively biting at 9 p.m. until 4 a.m

Predictions for B→KγγB \to K \gamma \gamma decays

We present a phenomenological study of the rare double radiative decay $B\to K \gamma\gamma$ in the Standard Model (SM) and beyond. Using the operator product expansion (OPE) technique, we estimate the short-distance (SD) contribution to the decay amplitude in a region of the phase space which is around the point where all decay products have energy $\sim m_b/3$ in the rest frame of the $B$-meson. At lowest order in 1/Q, where $Q$ is of order $m_b$, the $B\to K \gamma\gamma$ matrix element is then expressed in terms of the usual $B\to K$ form factors known from semileptonic rare decays. The integrated SD branching ratio in the SM in the OPE region turns out to be $\Delta {\cal{B}}(B \to K \gamma \gamma)_{SM}^{OPE} \simeq 1 \times 10^{-9}$. We work out the di-photon invariant mass distribution with and without the resonant background through $B\to K \{\eta_c,\chi_{c0}\}\to K\gamma \gamma$. In the SM, the resonance contribution is dominant in the region of phase space where the OPE is valid. The present experimental upper limit on $B_s \to \tau^+ \tau^-$ decays, which constrains the scalar/pseudoscalar Four-Fermi operators with $\tau^+ \tau^-$, leaves considerable room for new physics in the one-particle-irreducible contribution to $B\to K \gamma \gamma$ decays. In this case, we find that the SD $B\to K \gamma \gamma$ branching ratio can be enhanced by one order of magnitude with respect to its SM value and the SD contribution can lie outside of the resonance peaks.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures; Note added on Schouten identity and 2 references added; v4: typos in Eqs (8), (44) and erroneous statement on mixing before Eq (44) fixed. All results and conclusions unchange

Impact of deforestation on solid and dissolved organic matter characteristics of tropical peat forests: implications for carbon release

This study compares the organic chemistry of peat beneath one of last remaining pristine tropical peat forests in Southeast Asia with a neighbouring peat dome that has been deforested, but not intentionally drained, in the Belait district of Brunei Darussalam, Borneo. We characterized the solid and dissolved organic matter collected from the two domes, through a combination of methods including elemental analysis, phenolic content and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) investigation of solid peat, as well as optical characterisation (absorbance, fluorescence) of dissolved organic matter (DOM). The peat had a high content of lignin, consistent with its origin from the Shorea albida trees on the domes. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in the pore water was significantly greater in the deforested site (79.9 ± 5.5 mg l[superscript −1]) than the pristine site (62.2 ± 2.2 mg l[superscript −1]). The dissolved organic matter was richer in nitrogen and phenolics in the deforested site. The optical properties (Fluorescence Index) indicated a modification of DOM cycling in the deforested site (enhanced decomposition of the peat and fresh litter). Comparison of the solid peat composition between the two sites also suggests effects of deforestation: sulphur, nitrogen and phenolic contents were higher in the deforested site. Taken together, these observations are consistent with peat enhanced decomposition in the deforested site, even without engineered drainage.Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology. Center for Environmental Sensing and Modelin

Landcover Changes in Coastal Bungus Region of Kabung Bay, West Sumatra From 200-2013 Based on Geographic Information System Application

Bungus district of Kabung Bay is a growing region located at coastal zone of southern city of Padang, West Sumatra. As a growing region, the Bungus district brings some impacts on population increase and degradation of environment quality. Therefore, it is needed an effort to identify land use changes and the distribution of land use in this region from the year of 2003 until 2013. This research used landsat 7 imagery in 2003 and landsat 8 imagery in 2013. The data were analysed descriptively using geographical informastion system. The result showd that (1) swamp land cover experienced the smallest land use change between 2003 until 2013 (0.02 ha/yr), meanwhile forest land use had the biggest change of about 224.8 ha/yr. The biggest addition of land cover belong to settlement area about 47.59 hectare, and the other hand occur on bush about -31.68 hectare