Towards an Integrated Spatial Dynamic Model for Amsterdam

Contribution to the Metropolitan Study: 18 -- The project "Nested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies" started as a collaborative study in 1983. The Series of contributions is a means of conveying information between the collaborators in the network of the project. This report gives an overview of the structure of a dynamic model built for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region. The study concentrates on problems of analyzing and predicting the developments in the housing market to which demographic changes are explicitly related in a suggested model

Socioeconomic determinants of male mortality in Europe: the absolute and relative income hypotheses revisited

The main objective of this paper was to consider the influence of absolute and relative living standards (GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Parities and income inequality) on mortality differences between European countries.Rather than analysing all selected countries at once, Western and Eastern European countries were analysed separately. This was prompted in part due to their long period of diverging political and economic systems, which made it impossible to compare certain factors that were relevant for this study.The analyses showed that both absolute and relative income differentials are important, but absolute prosperity was more important than relative prosperity. Moreover, absolute income played a greater role in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe. The fact that the effect of GDPc on total mortality (both in terms of the coefficient value and the elasticity, as shown in Table 2) was greater in Eastern Europe, where absolute standard of wealth is lower, was not unexpected. GDPc and mortality were not linearly associated with each other, i.e. health gains in the East will be greater for a given amount of extra wealth than in the West (although within both groups of countries little non-linearity could be discerned). More surprising was that absolute income was also an important variable for Western Europe, being significant in 6 out of the 7 models, including total mortality. This contradicts the proposition by Wilkinson (1992), who claimed that it is not the richest societies but developed countries who have the smallest income differences between rich and poor that have the best health. The results of Wilkinson and others in the past showing that relative income is the more important income indicator, is only valid for certain causes of death. If we compare the impact of both absolute and relative income on mortality we find that only for mortality in Eastern Eurpope related to LDC is the elasticity of relative income slightly higher than that of absolute income. In all other cases when both income measures were present in the model, the absolute income elasticity is higher, indicating that it has a stronger impact

Can changes in education alter future population ageing in Asia and Europe?

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of elderly is rather heterogeneous. We assess educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations would change. We do so using a comparative population ageing measure that recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. We construct projected life-tables (2015-2020, …, 2045-2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables we calculated the future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex. We find that in both Asia and Europe and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternate future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. Our results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed

Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states

This deliverable both analyses the output for each migration scenario projected in Task 4.3 separately and compares different scenarios over time. At the total EU level FUME scenarios projected similar total population counts with small differences. The highest EU population in 2050 is projected by Scenario B - Recovery in Europe, stagnation in developing countries at around 518.8 million, and the lowest population is projected by No migration scenario at 387.2 million inhabitants. At national level, population sizes and compositions of the member states and the UK show more variability. Some countries are expected to experience sharp population decline at all FUME scenarios while others experience population growth. In the case of zero migration, all member states are expected to experience population decline, albeit at different paces. Migration flow composition in FUME scenarios is driven by the economical migration model presented in Deliverable 4.2 (D 4.2) and takes into account the size of diaspora and economic factors. Therefore, no surprising new origin-destination country pairs are emerging. However, when future migration flows are broken down by educational attainment the ranking of sending countries change in some cases, such as in France and Spain

Influenza infection and risk of acute pulmonary embolism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza infections have been associated with procoagulant changes. Whether influenza infections lead to an increased risk of pulmonary embolism remains to be established.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a nested case control study in a large cohort of patients with a clinical suspicion of having pulmonary embolism. Blood samples were collected to investigate the presence of influenza A and B by complement fixation assay (CFA). We compared case patients, in whom pulmonary embolism was proven (n = 102), to controls, in whom pulmonary embolism was excluded (n = 395). Furthermore, we compared symptoms of influenza-like illness in both patient groups 2 weeks prior to inclusion in the study, using the influenza-like illness (ILI) score, which is based on a questionnaire. We calculated the risk of pulmonary embolism associated with influenza infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The percentage of patients with influenza A was higher in the control group compared to the case group (4.3% versus 1.0%, respectively, odds ratio 0.22; 95% CI: 0.03–1.72). Influenza B was not detectable in any of the cases and was found in 3 of the 395 controls (0.8%). The ILI score was positive in 24% of the cases and 25% in the control persons (odds ratio 1.16, 95% CI: 0.67–2.01). We did not observe an association between the ILI score and proven influenza infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this clinical study, influenza infection was not associated with an increased risk of acute pulmonary embolism. The ILI score is non-specific in this clinical setting.</p

An international cohort comparison of size effects on job growth

The contribution of different-sized businesses to job creation continues to attract policymakers’ attention; however, it has recently been recognised that conclusions about size were confounded with the effect of age. We probe the role of size, controlling for age, by comparing the cohorts of firms born in 1998 over their first decade of life, using variation across half a dozen northern European countries Austria, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden and the UK to pin down size effects. We find that a very small proportion of the smallest firms play a crucial role in accounting for cross-country differences in job growth. A closer analysis reveals that the initial size distribution and survival rates do not seem to explain job growth differences between countries, rather it is a small number of rapidly growing firms that are driving this result