Development and validation of two clinical prediction models to inform clinical decision-making for lumbar spinal fusion surgery for degenerative disorders and rehabilitation following surgery: protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION: Potential predictors of poor outcome will be measured at baseline: (1) preoperatively to develop a clinical prediction model to predict which patients are likely to have favourable outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) and (2) postoperatively to predict which patients are likely to have favourable long-term outcomes (to inform rehabilitation). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Prospective observational study with a defined episode inception of the point of surgery. Electronic data will be collected through the British Spine Registry and will include patient-reported outcome measures (eg, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire) and data items (eg, smoking status). Consecutive patients (≥18 years) undergoing LSFS for back and/or leg pain of degenerative cause will be recruited. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: LSFS for spinal fracture, inflammatory disease, malignancy, infection, deformity and revision surgery. 1000 participants will be recruited (n=600 prediction model development, n=400 internal validation derived model; planning 10 events per candidate prognostic factor). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome (disability and pain) at 6 weeks (objective 1) and 12 months postsurgery (objective 2). Disability and pain will be measured using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and severity of pain in the previous week with a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS 0-10), respectively. Good outcome is defined as a change of 1.7 on the NRS for pain, and a change of 14.3 on the ODI. Both linear and logistic (to dichotomise outcome into low and high risk) multivariable regression models will be fitted and mean differences or ORs for each candidate predictive factor reported. Internal validation of the derived model will use a further set of British Spine Registry data. External validation will be geographical using two spinal registries in The Netherlands and Switzerland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval (University of Birmingham ERN_17-0446A). Dissemination through peer-reviewed journals and conferences

Investigating locally relevant risk factors for Campylobacter infection in Australia: Protocol for a case-control study and genomic analysis

Introduction The CampySource project aims to identify risk factors for human Campylobacter infection in Australia. We will investigate locally relevant risk factors and those significant in international studies in a case-control study. Case isolates and contemporaneous isolates from food and animal sources will be sequenced to conduct source attribution modelling, and findings will be combined with the case-control study in a source-assigned analysis. Methods and analysis The case-control study will include 1200 participants (600 cases and 600 controls) across three regions in Australia. Cases will be recruited from campylobacteriosis notifications to health departments. Only those with a pure and viable Campylobacter isolate will be eligible for selection to allow for whole genome sequencing of isolates. Controls will be recruited from notified cases of influenza, frequency matched by sex, age group and geographical area of residence. All participants will be interviewed by trained telephone interviewers using a piloted questionnaire. We will collect Campylobacter isolates from retail meats and companion animals (specifically dogs), and all food, animal and human isolates will undergo whole genome sequencing. We will use sequence data to estimate the proportion of human infections that can be attributed to animal and food reservoirs (source attribution modelling), and to identify spatial clusters and temporal trends. Source-assigned analysis of the case-control study data will also be conducted where cases are grouped according to attributed sources. Ethics and dissemination Human and animal ethics have been approved. Genomic data will be published in online archives accompanied by basic metadata. We anticipate several publications to come from this study

Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food

Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases caused by nine pathogens that are commonly transmitted through foods.We abstracted data from systematic reviews and, depending on the overall mortality rates of the country, applied either a national incidence estimate approach or a modified Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) approach to estimate the aetiology-specific incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases, by age and region. The nine diarrhoeal diseases assessed caused an estimated 1.8 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.1-3.3 billion) cases and 599,000 (95% UI 472,000-802,000) deaths worldwide in 2010. The largest number of cases were caused by norovirus (677 million; 95% UI 468-1,153 million), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) (233 million; 95% UI 154-380 million), Shigella spp. (188 million; 95% UI 94-379 million) and Giardia lamblia (179 million; 95% UI 125-263); the largest number of deaths were caused by norovirus (213,515; 95% UI 171,783-266,561), enteropathogenic E. coli (121,455; 95% UI 103,657-143,348), ETEC (73,041; 95% UI 55,474-96,984) and Shigella (64,993; 95% UI 48,966-92,357). There were marked regional differences in incidence and mortality for these nine diseases. Nearly 40% of cases and 43% of deaths caused by these nine diarrhoeal diseases occurred in children under five years of age.Diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens are responsible for a large disease burden, particularly in children. These aetiology-specific burden estimates can inform efforts to reduce diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens commonly transmitted through foods

Differences in school factors associated with adolescent HPV vaccination initiation and completion coverage in three Australian states.

BackgroundSchools are the primary setting for the delivery of adolescent HPV vaccination in Australia. Although this strategy has achieved generally high vaccination coverage, gaps persist for reasons that are mostly unknown. This study sought to identify school-level correlates of low vaccination course initiation and completion in New South Wales, Tasmania, and Western Australia to inform initiatives to increase uptake.MethodsInitiation was defined as the number of first doses given in a school in 2016 divided by vaccine-eligible student enrolments. Completion was the number of third doses given in a school in 2015-2016 divided by the number of first doses. Low initiation and completion were defined as coverage ≤ 25thpercentile of all reporting schools. We investigated correlations between covariates using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. Due to multicollinearity, we used univariable logistic regression to investigate associations between school characteristics and low coverage.ResultsMedian initiation was 84.7% (IQR: 75.0%-90.4%) across 1,286 schools and median completion was 93.8% (IQR: 86.0%-97.3%) across 1,295 schools. There were strong correlations between a number of school characteristics, particularly higher Indigenous student enrolments and lower attendance, increasing remoteness, higher postcode socioeconomic disadvantage, and smaller school size. Characteristics most strongly associated with low initiation in univariate analyses were small school size, location in Tasmania, and schools catering for special educational needs. Low completion was most strongly associated with schools in Tasmania and Western Australia, remote location, small size, high proportion of Indigenous student enrolments, and low attendance rates.ConclusionThis study provides indicative evidence that characteristics of schools and school populations are associated with the likelihood of low initiation and completion of the HPV vaccination course. The findings will guide further research and help target initiatives to improve vaccination uptake in schools with profiles associated with lower coverage

Potential human exposure to Australian Bat Lyssavirus, Queensland, 1996-1999

Two human deaths caused by Australian bat lyssavirus (ABL) infection have been reported since 1996. Information was obtained from 205 persons (mostly adults from south Brisbane and the South Coast of Queensland), who reported potential ABL exposure to the Brisbane Southside Public Health Unit from November 1,1996, to January 31, 1999. Volunteer animal handlers accounted for 39% of potential exposures, their family members for 12%, professional animal handlers for 14%, community members who intentionally handled bats for 31%, and community members with contacts initiated by bats for 4%. The prevalence of Lyssavirus detected by fluorescent antibody test in 366 sick, injured, or orphaned bats from the area was 6%. Sequelae of exposure, including the requirement for expensive postexposure prophylaxis, may be reduced by educating bat handlers and the public of the risks involved in handling Australian bats

What's in a virus? Folk understandings of hepatitis C infection and infectiousness among injecting drug users in Kings Cross, Sydney

BACKGROUND: To explore folk understandings of blood borne virus infection and infectiousness among injecting drug users in Kings Cross, Sydney. METHODS: Observational fieldwork was conducted in Kings Cross over a four month period. In-depth interviews with 24 current injectors and 4 key informants recruited from King Cross were undertaken. RESULTS: Hepatitis C (HCV) generated different meanings from HIV. HIV was considered "the dreaded" and generated fear of infection and dire disease progression. Whereas HCV was considered non-desirable but less threatening than HIV. The risks of transmitting HCV through sharing injecting paraphernalia was poorly understood. Some believed HCV infection was linked to poor hygiene and dirty water. Jaundice was mistakenly thought to indicate HCV infection and was used to gauge infectiousness. Many were confused about their current hepatitis C serostatus. Some participants thought they had a "dormant antibody" or that they had a "mild case" of infection. Participants were unsure what this meant for their own health or for their potential to infect others. CONCLUSION: Participants displayed confusion about transmission risks for hepatitis C, conflating blood awareness and hygiene health promotion messages. Participants' reliance on the symptom of jaundice to gauge serostatus places them at risk of transmitting and contracting HCV. Participants were confused about what a positive HCV diagnosis meant for their own health and their ability to infect others. Education is needed to debunk misconceptions about jaundice and clarify medical terms such as 'antibody' at the time of diagnosis. Further clarification of messages about injecting hygiene and blood awareness are also required