Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change

The Effect of Electronic Cigarette User Modifications and E-liquid Adulteration on the Particle Size Profile of an Aerosolized Product

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are an alternate nicotine delivery system that generate a condensation aerosol to be inhaled by the user. The size of the droplets formed in the aerosol can vary and contributes to drug deposition and ultimate bioavailability in the lung. The growing popularity of e-cigarette products has caused an increase in internet sources promoting the use of drugs other than nicotine (DOTNs) in e-cigarettes. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of various e-cigarette and e-liquid modifications, such as coil resistance, battery voltage, and glycol and drug formulation, on the aerosol particle size. E-liquids containing 12 mg/mL nicotine prepared in glycol compositions of 100% propylene glycol (PG), 100% vegetable glycerin (VG), or 50:50 PG:VG were aerosolized at three voltages and three coil resistances. Methamphetamine and methadone e-liquids were prepared at 60 mg/mL in 50:50 PG:VG and all e-liquids were aerosolized onto a 10 stage Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor. Glycol deposition correlated with drug deposition, and the majority of particles centered between 0.172–0.5 μm in diameter, representing pulmonary deposition. The 100% PG e-liquid produced the largest aerosol particles and the 100% VG and 50:50 PG:VG e-liquids produced ultra-fine particles \u3c0.3 μm. The presence of ultrafine particles indicates that drugs can be aerosolized and reach the pulmonary alveolar regions, highlighting a potential for abuse and risk of overdose with DOTNs aerosolized in an e-cigarette system

Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework

Improved Upper Limit on the Neutrino Mass from a Direct Kinematic Method by KATRIN.

We report on the neutrino mass measurement result from the first four-week science run of the Karlsruhe Tritium Neutrino experiment KATRIN in spring 2019. Beta-decay electrons from a high-purity gaseous molecular tritium source are energy analyzed by a high-resolution MAC-E filter. A fit of the integrated electron spectrum over a narrow interval around the kinematic end point at 18.57 keV gives an effective neutrino mass square value of (-1.0_{-1.1}^{+0.9})  eV^{2}. From this, we derive an upper limit of 1.1 eV (90% confidence level) on the absolute mass scale of neutrinos. This value coincides with the KATRIN sensitivity. It improves upon previous mass limits from kinematic measurements by almost a factor of 2 and provides model-independent input to cosmological studies of structure formation

Commissioning of the vacuum system of the KATRIN Main Spectrometer

The KATRIN experiment will probe the neutrino mass by measuring the beta-electron energy spectrum near the endpoint of tritium beta-decay. An integral energy analysis will be performed by an electro-static spectrometer (Main Spectrometer), an ultra-high vacuum vessel with a length of 23.2 m, a volume of 1240 m^3, and a complex inner electrode system with about 120000 individual parts. The strong magnetic field that guides the beta-electrons is provided by super-conducting solenoids at both ends of the spectrometer. Its influence on turbo-molecular pumps and vacuum gauges had to be considered. A system consisting of 6 turbo-molecular pumps and 3 km of non-evaporable getter strips has been deployed and was tested during the commissioning of the spectrometer. In this paper the configuration, the commissioning with bake-out at 300{\deg}C, and the performance of this system are presented in detail. The vacuum system has to maintain a pressure in the 10^{-11} mbar range. It is demonstrated that the performance of the system is already close to these stringent functional requirements for the KATRIN experiment, which will start at the end of 2016.Comment: submitted for publication in JINST, 39 pages, 15 figure

The time course of compensatory puffing with an electronic cigarette: Secondary analysis of real-world puffing data with high and low nicotine concentration under fixed and adjustable power settings

Introduction: In a secondary analysis of our published data demonstrating compensatory vaping behavior (increased puff number, puff duration, and device power) with e-cigarettes refilled with low versus high nicotine concentration e-liquid, here we examine 5-day time course over which compensatory behavior occurs under fixed and adjustable power settings. Aims and Methods: Nineteen experienced vapers (37.90 ± 10.66 years, eight females) vaped ad libitum for 5 consecutive days under four counterbalanced conditions (ie, 20 days in total): (1) low nicotine (6 mg/mL)/fixed power (4.0 V/10 W); (2) low nicotine/adjustable power; (3) high nicotine (18 mg/mL)/fixed power; (4) high nicotine/adjustable power (at 1.6 Ohm). Puff number, puff duration, and power settings were recorded by the device. For each day, total daily puffing time was calculated by multiplying daily puff number by mean daily puff duration. Results: A significant day × setting interaction revealed that whilst puffing compensation (daily puffing time) continued to increase over 5 days under fixed power, it remained stable when power settings were adjustable. Separate analysis for puff number and puff duration suggested that the puffing compensatory behavior was largely maintained via longer puff duration. Conclusions: Under fixed power conditions (4.0 V/10 W), vapers appear to compensate for poor nicotine delivery by taking longer puffs and this compensatory puffing appears to be maintained over time. Implications: Studies in smokers suggest that when switching to lower nicotine levels, compensation for poorer nicotine delivery is transient. Our novel findings suggest that vapers show a different pattern of compensation which is influenced by both nicotine strength and device power settings. When power is fixed (4.0 V; 10 W), compensation (via more intensive puffing) appears prolonged, persisting up to 5 days. Under adjustable settings when power is increased, puffing patterns remain stable over time. Implications of such compensatory behaviors for product safety and user satisfaction need further exploration

Early apoptosis of porcine alveolar macrophages limits avian influenza virus replication and proinflammatory dysregulation

Pigs are evidently more resistant to avian than swine influenza A viruses, mediated in part through frontline epithelial cells and alveolar macrophages (AM). Although porcine AM (PAM) are crucial in influenza virus control, their mode of control is unclear. To gain insight into the possible role of PAM in the mediation of avian influenza virus resistance, we compared the host effects and replication of two avian (H2N3 and H6N1) and three mammalian (swine H1N1, human H1N1 and pandemic H1N1) influenza viruses in PAM. We found that PAM were readily susceptible to initial infection with all five avian and mammalian influenza viruses but only avian viruses caused early and extensive apoptosis (by 6 h of infection) resulting in reduced virus progeny and moderated pro- inflammation. Full length viral PB1-F2 present only in avian influenza viruses is a virulence factor that targets AM for mitochondrial associated apoptotic cell death. With the use of reverse genetics on an avian H5N1 virus, we found that full length PB1-F2 contributed to increased apoptosis and pro-inflammation but not to reduced virus replication. Taken together, we propose that early apoptosis of PAM limits the spread of avian influenza viruses and that PB1-F2 could play a contributory role in the process

Daily exposure to formaldehyde and acetaldehyde and potential health risk associated with use of high and low nicotine e-liquid concentrations

Recent evidence suggests that e-cigarette users tend to change their puffing behaviors when using e-liquids with reduced nicotine concentrations by taking longer and more frequent puffs. Using puffing regimens modelled on puffing topography data from 19 experienced e-cigarette users who switched between 18 and 6 mg/mL e-liquids with and without power adjustments, differences in daily exposure to carbonyl compounds and estimated changes in cancer risk were assessed by production of aerosols generated using a smoking machine and analyzed using gas and liquid chromatography. Significant differences across conditions were found for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde (p<0.01). Switching from a higher to a lower nicotine concentration was associated with greater exposure regardless of whether power settings were fixed or adjustable which is likely due to increased liquid consumption under lower nicotine concentration settings. Daily exposure for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde was higher for 17/19 participants when using low (6mg/mL) compared with high (18mg/mL) nicotine e-liquid concentration when power was fixed. When power adjustments were permitted, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde levels were higher respectively for 16/19 and 14/19 participants with the use of 6 compared with 18 mg/mL nicotine e-liquid

Qualitative import risk assessment : a proposed method for estimating the aggregated probability of entry of infection

In the absence of sufficient numerical data, qualitative risk assessment is recognised as an important tool for providing risk managers with evidence-based predictions on which to formulate their decisions. Such approaches have been used in the area of animal health for import risk assessment for both livestock and zoonotic pathogens. Very few qualitative import risk assessments have, however, considered the aggregated probability of introduction, that is, the probability of at least one infected/contaminated entry per group of import units. Those that have are generally based on specific cases and do not follow a generic approach. In this paper, we consider whether or not it is feasible to develop a generic method and under what circumstances such an approach could be applied in practice. Our conclusion is that it would be difficult to specify a generic method because any such approach would rely on specifying numerical bounds for qualitative categories of probability as well as an idea of the number of imports and would thus be case-specific. As an alternative we propose a way of using case by case information to create a simple graphical reference tool which removes some of the subjectivity that is often associated with deriving qualitative risk. The reference tool considers various qualitative categories of individual probability and determines the relationship between this probability, the number of imports and the aggregated probability of entry. Applying the reference tool to a previously published case-study demonstrated some differences in conclusions and suggests that more subjective approaches can under-estimate probability and thus risk. It is concluded that this approach may be useful for future qualitative assessments of aggregated probability, provided that bounds for qualitative probabilities can be defined for the specific case situation