Derivation, Properties, and Simulation of a Gas-Kinetic-Based, Non-Local Traffic Model

We derive macroscopic traffic equations from specific gas-kinetic equations, dropping some of the assumptions and approximations made in previous papers. The resulting partial differential equations for the vehicle density and average velocity contain a non-local interaction term which is very favorable for a fast and robust numerical integration, so that several thousand freeway kilometers can be simulated in real-time. The model parameters can be easily calibrated by means of empirical data. They are directly related to the quantities characterizing individual driver-vehicle behavior, and their optimal values have the expected order of magnitude. Therefore, they allow to investigate the influences of varying street and weather conditions or freeway control measures. Simulation results for realistic model parameters are in good agreement with the diverse non-linear dynamical phenomena observed in freeway traffic.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/treiber.htm

Gas-Kinetic-Based Traffic Model Explaining Observed Hysteretic Phase Transition

Recently, hysteretic transitions to `synchronized traffic' with high values of both density and traffic flow were observed on German freeways [B. S. Kerner and H. Rehborn, Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 4030 (1997)]. We propose a macroscopic traffic model based on a gas-kinetic approach that can explain this phase transition. The results suggest a general mechanism for the formation of probably the most common form of congested traffic.Comment: With corrected formula (3). For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Structure and Instability of High-Density Equations for Traffic Flow

Similar to the treatment of dense gases, fluid-dynamic equations for the dynamics of congested vehicular traffic are derived from Enskog-like kinetic equations. These contain additional terms due to the anisotropic vehicle interactions. The calculations are carried out up to Navier-Stokes order. A linear instability analysis indicates an additional kind of instability compared to previous macroscopic traffic models. The relevance for describing granular flows is outlined.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Time-evolving measures and macroscopic modeling of pedestrian flow

This paper deals with the early results of a new model of pedestrian flow, conceived within a measure-theoretical framework. The modeling approach consists in a discrete-time Eulerian macroscopic representation of the system via a family of measures which, pushed forward by some motion mappings, provide an estimate of the space occupancy by pedestrians at successive time steps. From the modeling point of view, this setting is particularly suitable to treat nonlocal interactions among pedestrians, obstacles, and wall boundary conditions. In addition, analysis and numerical approximation of the resulting mathematical structures, which is the main target of this work, follow more easily and straightforwardly than in case of standard hyperbolic conservation laws, also used in the specialized literature by some Authors to address analogous problems.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures -- Accepted for publication in Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal., 201

Interpreting the Wide Scattering of Synchronized Traffic Data by Time Gap Statistics

Based on the statistical evaluation of experimental single-vehicle data, we propose a quantitative interpretation of the erratic scattering of flow-density data in synchronized traffic flows. A correlation analysis suggests that the dynamical flow-density data are well compatible with the so-called jam line characterizing fully developed traffic jams, if one takes into account the variation of their propagation speed due to the large variation of the netto time gaps (the inhomogeneity of traffic flow). The form of the time gap distribution depends not only on the density, but also on the measurement cross section: The most probable netto time gap in congested traffic flow upstream of a bottleneck is significantly increased compared to uncongested freeway sections. Moreover, we identify different power-law scaling laws for the relative variance of netto time gaps as a function of the sampling size. While the exponent is -1 in free traffic corresponding to statistically independent time gaps, the exponent is about -2/3 in congested traffic flow because of correlations between queued vehicles.Comment: For related publications see http://www.helbing.or

Emergence of heterogeneity and political organization in information exchange networks

We present a simple model of the emergence of the division of labor and the development of a system of resource subsidy from an agent-based model of directed resource production with variable degrees of trust between the agents. The model has three distinct phases, corresponding to different forms of societal organization: disconnected (independent agents), homogeneous cooperative (collective state), and inhomogeneous cooperative (collective state with a leader). Our results indicate that such levels of organization arise generically as a collective effect from interacting agent dynamics, and may have applications in a variety of systems including social insects and microbial communities.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Freezing by Heating in a Driven Mesoscopic System

We investigate a simple model corresponding to particles driven in opposite directions and interacting via a repulsive potential. The particles move off-lattice on a periodic strip and are subject to random forces as well. We show that this model - which can be considered as a continuum version of some driven diffusive systems - exhibits a paradoxial, new kind of transition called here ``freezing by heating''. One interesting feature of this transition is that a crystallized state with a higher total energy is obtained from a fluid state by increasing the amount of fluctuations.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://angel.elte.hu/~vicsek

Breakdown and recovery in traffic flow models

Most car-following models show a transition from laminar to ``congested'' flow and vice versa. Deterministic models often have a density range where a disturbance needs a sufficiently large critical amplitude to move the flow from the laminar into the congested phase. In stochastic models, it may be assumed that the size of this amplitude gets translated into a waiting time, i.e.\ until fluctuations sufficiently add up to trigger the transition. A recently introduced model of traffic flow however does not show this behavior: in the density regime where the jam solution co-exists with the high-flow state, the intrinsic stochasticity of the model is not sufficient to cause a transition into the jammed regime, at least not within relevant time scales. In addition, models can be differentiated by the stability of the outflow interface. We demonstrate that this additional criterion is not related to the stability of the flow. The combination of these criteria makes it possible to characterize commonalities and differences between many existing models for traffic in a new way

Incised-valley morphologies and sedimentary-fills within the inner shelf of the northern Bay of Biscay

This study is a first synthesis focused on incised-valleys located within the inner shelf of the Bay of Biscay. It is based on previously published results obtained during recent seismic surveys and coring campaigns. The morphology of the valleys appears to be strongly controlled by tectonics and lithology. The Pleistocene sedimentary cover of the shelf is very thin and discontinuous with a maximum thickness ranging between 30 and 40 m in incised-valley fills. Thus the incised bedrock morphology plays a key-role by controlling hydrodynamics and related sediment transport and deposition that explains some variations of those incised-valley fills with respect to the previously published general models

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda