Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

We develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, the Community Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globally and regionally at different resolutions from 30 arcmin to 30 arcsec at daily time steps. CWatM is open source in the Python programming environment and has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in the netCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in a compact way. CWatM includes general surface and groundwater hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, and return flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme. CWatM is used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible model structure allows for dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water quality models for the assessment and evaluation of water management options. Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of-the-art hydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual and automatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments at different spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change, and expand the open-source project. CWatM also strives to build a community learning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrological model and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such as energy and agriculture

An assessment of water management measures for climate change adaptation of agriculture in Seewinkel

To develop appropriate climate change adaptation plans, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation measures is required. At a regional scale, however, this information is usually lacking. The region of Seewinkel in Austria was taken as a case study because of its extensive agricultural industry and its unique ecosystem of saline lakes. The goal of the study was to provide stakeholders with evidence to support their climate change adaptation process. Adaptation measures discussed by local stakeholders were analyzed to determine their efficacy. A system dynamics (SD) based model was developed to serve as a tool for the water policy analysis and to be used in place of advanced hydrological models. The model was calibrated using observational data and forced with bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate data for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (2010–2100). Three parameters in the model were changed to simulate adaptation measures. The results showed that combined measures, increasing irrigation efficiency and changing crops could reduce water demand by an average of 40 %, 23 % and 23 %, respectively, for all RCPs. The local aquifer's level could be increased above the historical average by an average of 0.43 m by combined measures, 0.20 m by increasing irrigation efficiency, 0.20 m by changing crops and 0.06 m by artificially recharging the aquifer

Genetic diversity and phylogeny of Aedes aegypti, the main arbovirus vector in the Pacific

Background The Pacific region is an area unique in the world, composed of thousands of islands with differing climates and environments. The spreading and establishment of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in these islands might be linked to human migration. Ae. aegypti is the major vector of arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses) in the region. The intense circulation of these viruses in the Pacific during the last decade led to an increase of vector control measures by local health authorities. The aim of this study is to analyze the genetic relationships among Ae. aegypti populations in this region. Methodology/Principal Finding We studied the genetic variability and population genetics of 270 Ae. aegypti, sampled from 9 locations in New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga and French Polynesia by analyzing nine microsatellites and two mitochondrial DNA regions (CO1 and ND4). Microsatellite markers revealed heterogeneity in the genetic structure between the western, central and eastern Pacific island countries. The microsatellite markers indicate a statistically moderate differentiation (FST = 0.136; P < = 0.001) in relation to island isolation. A high degree of mixed ancestry can be observed in the most important towns (e.g. Noumea, Suva and Papeete) compared with the most isolated islands (e.g. Ouvea and Vaitahu). Phylogenetic analysis indicated that most of samples are related to Asian and American specimens. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest a link between human migrations in the Pacific region and the origin of Ae. aegypti populations. The genetic pattern observed might be linked to the island isolation and to the different environmental conditions or ecosystems

GEB v0.1: a large-scale agent-based socio-hydrological model – simulating 10 million individual farming households in a fully distributed hydrological model

Humans play a large role in the hydrological system, e.g. by extracting large amounts of water for irrigation, often resulting in water stress and ecosystem degradation. By implementing large-scale adaptation measures, such as the construction of irrigation reservoirs, water stress and ecosystem degradation can be reduced. Yet we know that many decisions, such as the adoption of more effective irrigation techniques or changing crop types, are made at the farm level by a heterogeneous farmer population. While these decisions are usually advantageous for an individual farmer or their community, aggregate effects of those decisions can have large effects downstream. Similarly, decisions made by other stakeholders, such as governments, often have basin-wide effects and affect each farmer differently. To fully comprehend how the human–natural water system evolves over time and space and to explore which interventions are suitable to reduce water stress, it is important to consider human behaviour and feedbacks to the hydrological system simultaneously at the local household and large basin scales. Therefore, we present the Geographical, Environmental, and Behavioural (GEB) model, a coupled agent-based hydrological model that simulates the behaviour and daily bidirectional interaction of more than 10 million individual farm households with the hydrological system on a personal laptop. Farmers exhibit autonomous heterogeneous behaviour based on their characteristics, assets, environment, management policies, and social network. Examples of behaviour are irrigation, generation of income from selling crops, and investment in adaptation measures. Meanwhile, reservoir operators manage the amount of water available for irrigation and river discharge. All actions can be taken at a daily time step and influence the hydrological system directly or indirectly. GEB is dynamically linked with the spatially distributed grid-based hydrological model CWatM at 30′′ resolution (< 1 km at the Equator). Because many smallholder farm fields are much smaller than 1 × 1 km, CWatM was specifically adapted to implement dynamically sized hydrological response units (HRUs) at the farm level, providing each agent with an independently operated hydrological environment. While the model could be applied anywhere globally at both large and small scales, we explore its implementation in the heavily managed Krishna basin in India, which encompasses ∼ 8 % of India's land area and ∼ 12.1 million farmers

Coupling a large-scale hydrological model (CWatM v1.1) with a high-resolution groundwater flow model (MODFLOW 6) to assess the impact of irrigation at regional scale

In the context of changing climate and increasing water demand, large-scale hydrological models are helpful for understanding and projecting future water resources across scales. Groundwater is a critical freshwater resource and strongly controls river flow throughout the year. It is also essential for ecosystems and contributes to evapotranspiration, resulting in climate feedback. However, groundwater systems worldwide are quite diverse, including thick multilayer aquifers and thin heterogeneous aquifers. Recently, efforts have been made to improve the representation of groundwater systems in large-scale hydrological models. The evaluation of the accuracy of these model outputs is challenging because (1) they are applied at much coarser resolutions than hillslope scale, (2) they simplify geological structures generally known at local scale, and (3) they do not adequately include local water management practices (mainly groundwater pumping). Here, we apply a large-scale hydrological model (CWatM), coupled with the groundwater flow model MODFLOW, in two different climatic, geological, and socioeconomic regions: the Seewinkel area (Austria) and the Bhima basin (India). The coupled model enables simulation of the impact of the water table on groundwater–soil and groundwater–river exchanges, groundwater recharge through leaking canals, and groundwater pumping. This regional-scale analysis enables assessment of the model's ability to simulate water tables at fine spatial resolutions (1 km for CWatM, 100–250 m for MODFLOW) and when groundwater pumping is well estimated. Evaluating large-scale models remains challenging, but the results show that the reproduction of (1) average water table fluctuations and (2) water table depths without bias can be a benchmark objective of such models. We found that grid resolution is the main factor that affects water table depth bias because it smooths river incision, while pumping affects time fluctuations. Finally, we use the model to assess the impact of groundwater-based irrigation pumping on evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and water table observations from boreholes

A hillslope-scale aquifer-model to determine past agricultural legacy and future nitrate concentrations in rivers

The long-term fate of agricultural nitrate depends on rapid subsurface transfer, denitrification and storage in aquifers. Quantifying these processes remains an issue due to time varying subsurface contribution, unknown aquifer storage and heterogeneous denitrification potential. Here, we develop a parsimonious modelling approach that uses long-term discharge and river nitrate concentration time-series combined with groundwater age data determined from chlorofluorocarbons in springs and boreholes. To leverage their informational content, we use a Boussinesq-type equivalent hillslope model to capture the dynamics of aquifer flows and evolving surface and subsurface contribution to rivers. Nitrate transport was modelled with a depth-resolved high-order finite-difference method and denitrification by a first-order law. We applied the method to three heavily nitrate loaded catchments of a crystalline temperate region of France (Brittany). We found that mean water transit time ranged 10–32 years and Damköhler ratio (transit time/denitrification time) ranged 0.12–0.55, leading to limited denitrification in the aquifer (10–20%). The long-term trajectory of nitrate concentration in rivers appears determined by flows stratification in the aquifer. The results suggest that autotrophic denitrification is controlled by the accessibility of reduced minerals which occurs at the base of the aquifer where flows decrease. One interpretation is that denitrification might be an interfacial process in zones that are weathered enough to transmit flows and not too weathered to have remaining accessible reduced minerals. Consequently, denitrification would not be controlled by the total aquifer volume and related mean transit time but by the proximity of the active weathered interface with the water table. This should be confirmed by complementary studies to which the developed methodology might be further deployed

Low flow sensitivity to water withdrawals in Central and Southwestern Europe under 2 K global warming

A sufficient freshwater supply is vital for humans, ecosystems, and economies, but anticipated climate and socio-economic change are expected to substantially alter water availability. Across Europe, about two-third of the abstracted freshwater comes from rivers and streams. Various hydrological studies address the resulting need for projections on changes in river discharge. However, those assessments rarely specifically account for the impact of various water withdrawal scenarios during low flow periods. We present here a novel, high-resolution hydrological modeling experiment using pseudo-global warming climate data to investigate the effects of changing water withdrawals under 2 K global warming. Especially in Western and Central Europe the projected impacts on low flows highly depend on the chosen water withdrawal assumption and can severely decrease under the worst case assumptions. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for future water withdrawals in low flow projections, showing that climate-focused impact assessments in near-natural catchments provide only one piece of the anticipated response and do not necessarily reflect changes in heavily managed river basins

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

Background: Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective: We provided an overview of research development and future research directions about the inter-relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) – the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Databases searched were the MEDLINE (via EBSCOhost), Current Contents Connect (via ISI Web of Knowledge) and ScienceDirect. We critically reviewed key predictors of RRV transmission through an integration of our own research with literature. Results: The body of evidence reveals that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appeared to be sensitive to climate variability. Rainfall, temperature and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the inter-relationship between climate variability, mosquito density and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socio-environmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections. Conclusions: The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors and Ross River virus transmission. Different strategies should be adopted for the control and prevention of Ross River virus disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision-making in disease control/surveillance and risk management

Community Water Model CWatM Manual

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature and will have regional to localized impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water demand, water supply and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model will be designed for this purpose in that they include an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWatM will represent one of the new key elements of the WAT program going forward and increasing the innovative niche of work. We will use and develop the model to work at both global and regional (basin) level. The configuration of the model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community and is flexible enough to introduce further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economy. Our vision for short to medium term work of the group is to introduce water quality (i.e., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into the community model and to consider how to include a qualitative/quantitative measure of transboundary river and groundwater governance into a scenario and modelling framework